• 11:55 AM ET  10.26
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Who should get into the BCS Championship Game: Undefeated Penn State or One loss SEC team?

 

Case # 1: Okay, let's just say that Texas runs the table in the Big 12 South, then Beats Mizzou in the championship game. Penn State runs the table and wins the Big Ten. Alabama drops a game in winning the SEC west (say to LSU in two weeks), before beating Georgia in a rematch to win the SEC Championship. That would likely leave Texas as the number one team in the land and a close tie for second between Penn State and Alabama.

Case # 2: Okay, let's just say that Alabama runs the table in the SEC, then Beats Georgia in the championship game. Penn State runs the table and wins the Big Ten. Texas losses to Texas Tech, but manages to win the Big 12 South, then beats Mizzou in the Championship game. Who get's in One-loss Texas or Penn State to play Alabama.

 

Anyway: Who gets in?

 

            It would all depend on the play of Penn State down the stretch. It would be very hard to leave an undefeated Big Ten champion out of the Big Game. But, the Big Ten is very suspect this year. Penn State is the best team, with Ohio State second, third is??? Northwestern? Minnesota? Michigan State

            The Big 12 number two is either: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma State. The worst of these three could easily beat the number two in the Big Ten.

            Penn State has really only has one win over a team that is currently ranked: that being the victory this past weekend over Ohio State. Nevermind that Ohio State lost 35-3 to USC. Plain and simple, Penn State is good, but they just haven't played anyone in the top eight.

            The other fact is that they got their record beating Coastal Carolina, Syracuse, Temple, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin. All are either Div I-AA or .500 or below teams.

            Still, with wins over Michigan State, Iowa and Indiana will get Penn State into the championship game. You just cannot ignore an undefeated Big ten Champion, that's just life.

 

Case #1: Undefeated Penn State gets in over a one-loss Alabama

 

Case #2:  Undefeated Penn State gets in over a one-loss Texas

Note: A one-loss Penn State team does not get in over a one-loss Big 12 Champion, one-loss Sec Champ, and possibly in over a two loss Big 12 or SEC Champ. They just haven't won any games over top five teams. Texas, and Alabama have gotten into the top five by beating top Five teams whereas Penn State has climbed the ladder by beating  #10-20 teams.

Wild card: Who gets in: One loss Penn State or One-Loss USC?

 

Penn State could say that they beat Oregon State who beat USC, but USC could say that they beat Ohio State 35-3 whereas Penn State by one touchdown.

 

USC would get in based on past performance, sorry, that's how it is.

 

 

Wild Card part II: Who gets in: Undefeated Utah, Undefeated Boise or Undefeated Penn State?

 

The Big Ten isn't much better than the Mountain West this year. I would take TCU over Penn State, and BYU has enough offense to stay with anyone in the Big Ten. Problem is, Utah is a good team that has gotten by teams, and not a great team like it was in 2004. Plus, Utah just got by Michigan, whereas Penn State blew them out.

 

That said, Penn State gets in over Utah.

 

How can we solve this?

More inter-conference games; It's that simple. If the Big 12, and SEC do not have to play anyone outside their conference, they are just that strong. The PAC-10, Big Ten, ACC have to play teams from the Big 12 and SEC. No more Cupcake Div 1-AA, start the year off big with major games. If you are listening Big Ten, PAC-10, make it happen.

October 26, 2008  01:23 PM ET

Georgia is going to get stomped by Florida and Alabama's best defensive player (nose tackle Cody) will be neutralized by Florida's shotgun spread. Look for Florida to be the 1-loss SEC team in the picture.

All of Florida's wins are by 23+ points. Their only loss is a fluky one. They lost by 1-point despite outgaining Ole Miss. They lose because of a blocked extra point and several fumbles. Florida looks like the most dominant team in the nation right now. USC barely beat Arizona. Penn State struggled to beat the national whipping boy known as OSU. Texas benefitted from some questionable calls to be Oklahoma State and Alabama has scraped by some teams that Florida embarassed (example: Bama beat Kentucky 17-14, Florida beat Kentucky 63-5).

October 26, 2008  02:17 PM ET

Good work as always.

Agree accross the board - I actually looked up the interconference record making an alppes to apples comparison. When you factor in how the teams finished in their own conference compared to how their opponent finished in another, there is no justification to forgive a loss based on which conference a team came from.

October 26, 2008  02:40 PM ET

USC makes it interesting.

If USC and Or St win out, technically most would have USC #2 in the PAC 10 - it is hard to justify a slot in the title game when you didn't win 1 of the major 6 conferences.

It won't come up this year, but there is a question of rematches between teams that already played in the regular season. With so few inter-conference games, I don't think there are more than enough unknowns to justify a do-over of a regular season game.

On the plus side for USC, they won a game between 2 teams that were expected to finish in the top 1/3 of a major conference, will likely finish in the top 1/3 of their conference, and when the game was shceduled 4+ years ago, both teams were expected to be in the top 1/3 when they met (as opposed to scheduling a team who happened to turn their program around). I don't know that there were any other inter-conference games this year between the major6 that fit this bill on all 3 axis.

If we don't give USC the nod over other teams with the same record, we lose the right to complain about the lack of quality interconference games, SOS, etc. It shouldn't forgive a loss, but it should get the nod when we see 2 teams with the same record.

October 26, 2008  02:48 PM ET

Last part (sorry for going so long - but at least I am boosting you # of comments)
:-)

I am wholly for reserving 1 spot in the BCS for a team outside the major 6, but I am fully against them in the title game.

This is a log, not a comment, but in short
- They don't have the ponies. I think the best single year recruiting class from 2002 to 2007 is ranked around 42nd, behind 41 teams from the major conferences.
- We hear about their wins but their losses are not cnsidered newsorthy. In the end they are in the neighborhood of 3-63 against conference champs (well below the average). In 2007 they combined for 1 bowl win over the major 6 despite playing their top conference teams against teams from the major 6 that finished much lower.

These combine to show they likely wouldn't win any of the major conferences, nor would they be expected to win a major conference any time soon. This makes it tough to argue them into the title game.

October 26, 2008  05:07 PM ET

It's a shame that the Longhorns have to run the table because if they were to lose they wouldn't have a chance at a BCS game. To late in the season to make up the drop in the ratings. The have already beaten 3 ranked teams in a row and Texas Tech is coming up to make it 4. Lets not forget the rivalry game against the Aggies. These has to be taken into consideration.

October 26, 2008  07:18 PM ET
QUOTE(#5):

It's a shame that the Longhorns have to run the table because if they were to lose they wouldn't have a chance at a BCS game. To late in the season to make up the drop in the ratings.

The have already beaten 3 ranked teams in a row and Texas Tech is coming up to make it 4. Lets not forget the rivalry game against the Aggies. These has to be taken into consideration.

They don't need to run the table, just not lose the title game - win the conference and they are in a BCS game.

If you meant to reference just the title game, try as I might, I can't generate sympathy for a team with a loss missing the title game to undefeated teams. I also can't generate sympathy for a team being passed over in the title game for another team with the same record who scheduled and defeated a non-conference opponent from the top of the other major 6 conferences.

I do disagree with the pollsters ranking and putting in teams that finished 3rd in their conference because the 2nd place team had a late season loss in the title game.

I do not put much credence in early and mid season rankings (or any rankings for all that matters). The pollsters don't have a great track record. There aren't a sufficient number of inter-conference match ups to get a good feel for the relative strength between conferences.

October 26, 2008  08:09 PM ET

The Tide looks to play well against LSU given their performance on the road this year. Watch our for Miss. State. AL has always played poorly in that game.

October 26, 2008  08:11 PM ET

The Tide looks to play well against LSU given their performance on the road this year. Watch our for Miss. State. AL has always played poorly in that game.

 
October 27, 2008  01:58 PM ET

Hello everyone, thanks for reading.

Texas-Yes, if they run the table there are unquestionably the best team in the land. Maybe of last ten years, because I cannot remember a team having to play Four straight top Eight teams.

Alabama- Miss State runs the ball well, and in the upsets that Sly Croom has engineered, they all had the same plot line. Run the ball, play good defense, get a turnover and win 17-14 or something to that effect. Alabama may have too much power though.

Florida-I'm glad that they have gotten the RBs in the game plan more. Tim Tebow is great, but is not as good when everyone knows that he is going to get the ball. If Florida wins the East, then beats Alabama it would be an interesting to see who would get in...might have to write about that as it becomes closer.

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