FanNation - The Republic of Sport

 This is a follow up to Early Playoff Picks

 The NFL soon enters double-digited weeks of the season.  Week 10 if you're still mentally digesting that sentence. What's that mean? Not a whole lot. No one's locked in for anything technically. But, alas, this is more interesting than work right now. Here we go...updated playoff picks!!!

So, after watching the Steelers man-handle the Redskins, I have to tip my hat to them. Even lacking Roethlisberger they dominated. In fact, Leftwich played better than Big Ben in that game (this obviously isn't a revelation no one else noticed, check the stats). Before I thought the Steelers would do well in the playoffs, but I still don't know if they'll make it to the Superbowl. I think what's changed in my mind mostly is the wildcard race, the AFC East, and the Redskins (and I just got a new car, woo hoo!). What hasn't changed? The West still sucks, the Titans are still undefeated, the Giants are tearing up the league, and the Detroit Lions are still winless. 

My biggest concern is the Bills; where'd they go? They're playing like they're in a Superbowl in the early 90s (not good for the Bills). Losses to the Jets and Dolphins really hurts them in a bid for the division when the pesky Patriots are still in the mix. In addition, the Dolphins have fought through the most difficult part of their season to end 4-4. They don't have a difficult remaining season and could possibly be a legitimate playoff candidate in a few weeks. The Jets' remaining season isn't as forgiving, but you can't count them out yet either. This division went from seemingly early lock-up to open to anybody. It will likely be won by the Patriots or the Bills, but they both have more difficult seasons left, so it's a complete unknown.

Let's say Bill's did lose the division, would they be a likely wildcard? That's becoming an even tighter race. Baltimore, Miami, and Indianapolis are making wide strides to January while the Jags, Broncos, and Chargers are putting up some very lackluster performances. The only dependable teams in the AFC are the Titans and Steelers right now. Well, that you can depend on them to perform well. The Raiders, Chiefs, and Bengals are pretty dependable, too, in a way...

So let's look at some of these possible playoff teams...

First, I think we can assume the Titans and Steelers will win their division. Also, either the Broncos or Chargers will win their division (AFC West) and not do much with it and no wildcard teams will be coming from that division. Bengals are out. Except for a miracle, so are the Browns and Texans. So who does that leave us?

AFC East - All 4

AFC North - Ravens

AFC West - *crickets chirping*

AFC South - Colts, Jags

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AFC East

Patriots - They only have 2 gimmes in their remaining schedule: Raiders and Seahawks. Aside from that they play the Bills twice, Jets, and Dolphins, the majority of their division games. They also play the Cardinals at home, which should be a fairly easy victory because at that point the Cardinals should have their crappy division locked up so they won't want to risk too much. Their hardest game will be hosting the Steelers. Can they win all 8 of these games? I'd believe it, but I doubt it. But I think they can come out of their final half with only 3 losses. Current record: 5-3, Projected record: 10-6.

 Jets - They actually have a possbily more difficult season ahead of them then the Patriots. Three unpredictable teams in the Broncos, Rams, and Dolphins as well as the AFC Titan, the Titans. They also play the Bills and Patriots each once. They've already beat the Dolphins and Bills once, but I don't think they can sweep both of teams. Additionally, Belichick has a good record against Mangini. I think they'll lose at least two of their remaining divisional games. Lucky for them, they also get to play three NFC West teams...the three worst. They should be able to beat those teams. Current record: 5-3, Projected record: 9-7.

Dolphins -  They play the crud of the crap for the most part of their season from now till the end. The only winning record teams they play are in their division, so 5 out of 8 teams are awful. They can probably get at least one division game before season's end to make a 10-6 or even 11-5 record possible. 12-4 isn't that far-fetched. Yes, the 1-15 2007 Dolphins could go 12-4 this year if they play perfectly. Current record: 4-4, Projected record: 9-7.

Bills -  Lucky Bills, they probably have the most unpredictable schedule of all in this division, including two against the Patriots. They're already down 2 games against division teams with no break in sight. The Bills' season could soon become very depressing as they watch a division lead and a playoff spot disappear quickly. They should easily defeat the Chiefs and 49ers, but the rest of the games are easily decided. Pats twice, Jets and Dolphins once, Broncos, and Browns. They should be able to pull out of this with 5 wins, but they could easily end up in last place. Current record: 5-3, Projected record: 10-6.

AFC North

Ravens - Aside from sucking against the Colts, they've been a pretty good team. They could easily be 7 - 1 right now if not for a couple unfortunate, self-afflicted calls/plays. However, they have possibly the hardest remaining schedule in the league. All four NFC East teams and the Jaguars. They haven't been much yet this season, but they have the tools to be a dangerous team, especially fighting for a playoff spot last game of the season? It's possible. The Ravens should be able to handle the Texans and the Bengals. The Cowboys game depends on the shape of that team come late December, they're a bit lost right now, but in a few months their ailments may be healed. And let's not forget about the Steelers game. The Ravens can usually handle the Steelers at home pretty well, though. I could see the Ravens blowing it and winning 2 or 3 games the rest of the season or I could also see them winning it out. This is very unpredictable team with a great defense and an improving-every-week offense. Current record: 5-3, Projected record: 9-7.

AFC South

Colts - I have no idea how to call these Colts. Awesome one week, sucky the next, then clutch the following week. You can't count them out. They're two big obstacles are the Steelers and the Titans. Otherwise, they could easily go 6-2 the rest of the way. Browns, Chargers, and Jaguars are lacking right now, but could explode in any game. There are some potential dangerous teams out there, but if the Colts can manage their games, they can pull away with a much better second half. Current record: 4-4, Projected record: 10-6.

Jaguars - Not likely to make the playoffs this year unless they make some serious efforts. They're already down 3-, but they have the players who could come out and change the season around. Will they? I think it will be too little, too late if they do anything. Most disappointing team this year. Current record: 3-5, Projected record: 6-10.

Enough of the AFC for now, what about that other conference? Not much has changed, the NFC East and South are still full-out battles. The Eagles are looking pretty good and so are the Panthers. The Bears also have been showing improvement. The Redskins loss to the Steelers was unexpected and rather pathetic, but not a season killer. The Cowboys' season may be lost, unfortunately, after such a strong start, but that's what you get not having a good back up plan. Murphy's law, Dallas!

At least one wildcard spot will go to the NFC East, probbly Redskins. The other will be fight between either the Panthers/Bucs (whomever doesn't win that division) and the Eagles. I wish the Falcons could be included as a serious playoff possibility, but I don't see it. They have a fairly difficult road infront of them. That would be a hell of story, though. the Saints' offense is great, but it's defense is much worse. I think it's too late for them to save the season with the talent in these two divisions. 

I think the Panthers have a pretty good hold on their division sitting at 6-2 with a moderate schedule remaining (they should be 9-2 in three weeks).  The three teams to watch will be the Redskins, Eagles, and Buccaneers. All three I think are likely to go 11-5, so it will come down to tye-breaks.

So, let's sum all this up...

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AFC 

Division Champs 

1) Titans - 14-2 - Tough last 2 games of the season, but it shouldn't matter at that point 

2) Steelers - 11 - 5 - Should have been a harder schedule this year, but the Colts, Chargers, Patriots, Jaguars, and Cowboys ain't what they used to be

3) Patriots - 10 - 6 - Just can't keep them out of here!

4) Broncos - 9 - 7 - Default...that record is being generous too

Wildcards 

5) Colts - 10 - 6 - Shaky start, but they'll pull through with Jacksonville  slipping away

6) Bills - 10 - 6 - A bittersweet playoff berth, they should've had the division, but I think the Patriots have control of that now. Pray the Dolphins don't play well down the stretch.

Wannabes 

Ravens - 9 - 7 - Not too shaby for a rookie quarterback and head coach, maybe next year.

Dolphins - 9 - 7 - This team is a black horse, their schedule could permit them going 12-4 and getting a #2 seed. Same time, a weak schedule yields a unfairly highly ranked team who'll get blown out by a much better lower seeded team.

Jets - 9 - 7 - So close, but the rest of your division is too good. You and the Cowboys may see yourselves as the only 9 - 7 last place teams.  

(Any three of the teams could pull out a 10 - 6 or 11 - 5 season and easily end up in the playoffs, so Bills, Colts, and Patriots don't screw this up. There's plenty of teams eager to take your spot)

NFC

Division Champs 

1) Giants - 13 - 3 - Maybe 12 - 4 with the Panthers nipping at their heals. Week 16 should be interesting...

2) Panthers - 12 - 4 - Potential usurper of the NFC. They should be able to get the #2 seed without too much resistance, but for a #1 seed they'll have to go through the Giants week 16 and division rival Saints week 17. Do they settle for numero dos or go for homefield advantage. We shall see...

3) Da Bearz - 9 - 7- They could pull of 10 - 6, but I think they can safely secure this spot with a 9 - 7 record. They don't have an easy schedule, but they're not going to catch the Panthers or Giants, so take a couple losses and go in fresh. Let the big boys beat eachother up and maybe you can come out on top? Oh wait, you'll probably be playing a wildcard team with an 11 - 5 record from a difficult division...

4)  Cardinals - 9 - 7 - If it was any of the other three teams, I'd write a letter to Commissioner Goodell asking him too please take the NFC West's playoff spot and make it a third wildcard so a team who's earner it can play, but Cardinal fans deserve a playoff game. Thier team has gone so long without a playoff appearance and their senator just lost the election. 

Wildcard

5) Redskins - 11 - 5 -  They get to host their division at home at should be able to get at least 2 of those games. Plus they get three easy ones with the Seahawks, Bengals, and 49ers. Road bump? Away at the Ravens for the Battle of the Beltways. I'm definitely trying to go to that. PS- that game against the Steelers sucked!

6)  Buccaneers - 11 - 5 - Biggest obstacle? Panthers. Potential obstacles? Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Chargers. Pee Wee Football? Lions, Raiders. I can't imagine this team losing more than 2 more games. That'll be the difference between being on the field and watching the game from home, though.

Wannabes

Eagles - 11- 5 - I picked the Bucs over the Eagles becuase I think they're more likely to hit 11-5. Eagles have a harder schedule. Tough pick though

Falcons - 9 - 7 - they could even go 10 - 6, but it won't be enough to make it to the playoffs this year. Imagine...a NFC team with a 10 - 6 record not in the playoffs. Remember when 8-8 was a playoff worthy record?

Cowboys - 9 - 7 - I'm going out on a limb to say 9 - 7 for these guys. I just don't know. If everyone's healty, maybe they can save the season, but I just don't see it. This is what happens when you go into battle 

Saints - 8 - 8 - Sorry, Drew Brees. Maybe the Saints and the Bears can merge? Saints' offense, Bears' defense.  Could be the greatest team in history, but what would we call them? Bears + Saints = What? Martyr is the obvious one, but maybe we can reserve that for the team formed by the Bears' offense and Saints' defense. Who is a holy bear? MIKE DITKA! The Ditkas! Perfect. 

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Playoffs

Wildcard Weekend

NFC - Buccanneers defeat Bears, Redskins defeat Cardinals

AFC - Patriots defeat Bills, Colts defeat Broncos

Divisionals

NFC - Giants defeat Buccanneers, Panthers defeat Redskins

AFC - Steelers defeat Patriots, Titans defeat Colts

Conference Championships

NFC - Giants defeat Panthers

AFC - Titans defeat Steelers

Superbowl

Giants defeat Titans...Boring 

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Chiefs failed me. I thought I was dead on when I called them run out the rest of the season unbeaten. But hey, with 8 straight wins in the AFC West, a 9 -7 record could do it. It's a worthy investment...I pay $1 that the Chiefs will be Superbowl champs. With 1:1e9 chances, I'm a billionaire when I'm right.

More importantly, an upset against the Eagles, Redskins, Buccanneers would prove costly for that team and probably result in a very good, but playoff-less season. Don't be surprised if you see the Dolphins in the playoffs. It's do-able, very do-able. Teams ripe with jealousy and looking to do some spoiling? Cowboys and Saints. Teams that wish they were good enough to be spoilers? Chargers, Jaguars, Browns.

Till next time...