FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Well, I actually wrote this blog nearly to its entirety until my computer restarted without prompting a save, so there goes a solid two and a half hours of work. Forgive me if this entry is abrupt, I am rather frustrated.  Also, I make a point to try to finish this by 3 AM so that my brain isn't all fuzzy, but that isn't an option tonight.  Pity, because the first draft was some of my better work.  Anywho, I hope you enjoy:

Week in Review

3-1 (4-3 overall)

The most brutal part to the brutal start of the season is over.  In case you haven't heard, Portland's first five opponents all won at least 54 games last year, then there was a relative cupcake in Minnesota, and then off to Orlando who won 52 last year and four straight going into the Blazer contest.  All things considered, this week went better than I could have hoped.  If anyone remembers, I predicted a 2-2 week with wins over Minnesota and Utah.  As usual, I was wrong.

In every game Portland held a double digit lead, and in every game Portland blew a double digit lead.  Against Utah they simply blew it too late to recover.  The next night at home against Houston they were lucky (bad?) enough to blow it with enough time to recover and pull out a miracle win in overtime on a Brandon Roy 33 footer at the horn.  On Saturday against Minnesota they lost a double digit lead in the fourth, only to survive when Roy once again hit a game winner with about 30 seconds left.  Finally, in Orlando on Monday they held a large lead after one period, and eventually entered the fourth quarter down one.  However, they scored the first 11 points of the final period and never looked back.

Never mind the high level of competition and the fact that Oden is still out, this was good week by any standard.

Five Things I Liked:

1. Brandon Roy in the clutch:

Roy has been having a typical Roy year to date, scoring around 20 ppg and adding 6 assists and 4 rebounds.  But last week he showed his real value by hitting the biggest shots when they counted the most.  His 16 foot jumper to break a tie against Minnesota with 30 seconds left was far less dramatic than his efforts against Houston, but it was still a clutch shot in a game that was threatening to slip away.

His last 1.9 seconds against Houston were like nothing I'd seen before in the NBA.  He pulled the most dramatic hero-bonehead-hero combo I've ever seen.  First of all, he's been cold most of the night, shooting 4-16 up to the point before the real fireworks started.  Second, it's a tie game with about 10 second left in overtime when Houston misses a shot and Roy gets the ball.  He brings it upcourt and hits a tough fadeaway from about 15 feet with 1.9 seconds left to put Portland up two.  Houston takes a timeout and then inbounds the ball to Yao Ming, who hits a very difficult fadeaway on the baseline over Channing Frye while getting fouled by, yep, Brandon Roy.  It's common basketball knowledge to A) not foul a jumpshooter and B) not let the guy you've fouled get off a good shot.  After Yao's free throw puts Houston up one with .8 left and Portland uses its final timeout, Roy sprints out from the key and in the same motion takes the inbound from Steve Blake, turns, and shoots from about 33 feet away while Tracy McGrady is running at (and into) him. Horn. Swish. Win.

I'm not sure what Charles Barkley was saying in the postgame when he said Portland doesn't have a go-to guy in the fourth.  That guy is clearly Roy, and I think everyone except Sir Charles knows it.

2. Lamarcus Aldridge on the boards:

First off, Aldridge had a very good week against some very tough competition.  He put up 21.5 ppg and 8.8 rpg against Carlos Boozer, Yao Ming, Al Jefferson, and Dwight Howard.  For this reason he earns my prestigious Blazers MVP of the Week award.  But most important was his rebounding.  With Greg Oden out, Channing Frye largely ineffective, and Joel Pyrzbilla strapped with fouls the rebounding burden fell largely on Aldridge.  In the loss in Utah he only grabbed two boards, but in the three wins against Houston, Minnesota, and Orlando he had nine, 13, and 11 respectively.

A lot of his rebounding is due to his increasing willingness to be close to the rim on both offense and defense, and a lot is also due to his increased bulk from a year ago.  When Oden returns it's very likely that Aldridge will experience a decrease in rebounds, but it's nice to know he's capable when the other big men on the team aren't pulling their weight.

3. Rudy Fernandez without the ball:

Sure, you can rave about his 14 ppg off the bench, his 12-for-24 shooting from behind the arc, or his smooth jumper in general.  All of those contributed to his solid week overall.  However, it's much easier to have a smooth jumper and hit 50% from downtown when the looks are clean, and Rudy's outstanding movement without the ball allows him a ton of open looks.  He uses screens his teammates set, he runs behind opponents and uses them as screens, and he has a great knack for stopping on a dime then changind direction at full speed.  He moves as well without the ball as Rip Hamilton, and that's no exaggeration.

Many "experts" put Rudy among the early candidates for both rookie of the year and sixth man of the year, and he's earn every bit of recognition he gets.  His energy is largely what sparks the Blazers impressive second unit, and that second unit is the biggest reason they have a winning record at this point in time.

4. Travis Outlaw:

It's unusual for me to include Outlaw on the list of things I like.  I dog him a lot and have openly called him trade bait.  However, if he plays every week like he did this week I will no longer speak ill of him.  What impresses me more than his 13.3 points per game off the bench this past week is his 6.5 rebounds per game, including a game-high 13 in the dramatic win over Houston.  Rebounding has been one of his largest detractions to date, with the other being his perimeter defense.  Speaking of which, for large stretches over each of the past three games he was assigned to the best perimeter player for the other team, with mixed results (mixed results is better than what he usually does).

My main concern now is him keeping it up.  I'm not so concerned about his scoring because he's proven himself to be a pretty consistent scorer. What worries me is that when his shot isn't falling he tends to slack on the boards and on defense, and it's when your shot isn't falling that you should try to contribute MORE in other areas. 

5. Free throws:

As a team the Blazers shot nearly 80% this past week, good for top ten in the NBA.  Steve Blake hit 10-11 and Outlaw 4-4 down the stretch against the Magic to keep them at bay, Aldridge hit the big ones against Houston, and Rudy is over 90% from the line thus far (he was also over 90% in his international career).  Really, only Joel Pyrzbilla is a liability at the line (27% so far. Yuck), with the next worse being Aldridge's 67%.  When this team gets to the line, they tend to cash in.

Five Things I Didn't Like:

1. Jumpshooting:

The Blazers live and die by the 17 footer.  Outlaw loves them, Roy loves them, Aldridge loves them, Frye loves them, and on and on and on.  Sure, it's great to have a bunch of youngsters who respect the value of the midrange J, but Rudy and Roy are the only two who get close to the rim with any sort of consistency.  Aldridge is getting better at it but still has a ways to go, and Outlaw is just wasting his leaping and finishing ability.  It's easy to get leads with jumpers, and it's easy to blow leads with jumpers.  Also, as I just said, Portland is a good free throw shooting team, yet they rank just 23rd in the NBA in attempts.

I suspect Oden's return will lead to more of an overall inside game, but some players, specifically Outlaw, Frye, and Aldridge, need to become more aggressive and attack the rim.

2. The Roy-Rudy combo:

On paper this is a great duo.  Both are good passers and shooters and they make for a large backcourt (both are listed at 6'6").  On the court, however, things aren't going as well. For whatever reason the two of them lack chemistry.  I'm sure a lot of it can be attributed to them only playing seven games together thus far, but there are still some fundamental flaws with this pairing.

For one, neither of them is really capable of defending opposing point guards.  Roy is a solid perimeter defender but lacks the quickness to keep up with a point, and Rudy is below-average at best on defense, though he can draw charges in the paint pretty well.  Another reason these two don't work so well together is that when Roy runs the point he tends to either look for his own shot or work the pick and roll/pop with Aldridge, which leaves little to no touches for Rudy, and Rudy doesn't have the handles or the decision-making ability to run the point.

Bottom line, the only time these two should be on the floor together is when coach McMillan employs the small lineup of Blake, Rudy, Roy, Outlaw, and Aldridge.  This lineup, or some tiny variation of it, is what helped Portland control the fourth quarter against Orlando and has worked in spells at other points in other games.  Basically, if Roy and Rudy are on the floor together there needs to be a third party distributing the ball.

3. Channing Frye:

I feel like I'm picking on the guy, which I don't mean to do.  I really like his personality, and he has a solid jumper.  What's more, when he slides over to center and is forced to play inside he's a reliable post.  Sadly, he usually is a power forward, and in that circumstance he is just a poor man's Aldridge.  That works on any team that doesn't have Lamarcus Aldridge, but what Portland needs him to do is fight for boards and look for close shots.

Even if he doesn't want to play back-to-the-basket, he's a pretty good ball handler for a power forward and should be able to get around a lot of defending power forwards for easy shots or trips to the line.  Instead, Frye too often settles for his comfort zone- the 15-20 footer.  In order to truly contribute to this team he needs to attack more and crash the boards.

4. Blowing leads:

This very closely relates to the team shooting too many jumpers and not looking inside, but that alone doesn't explain the problem.  In every game so far this year except the horrid Laker opener the Blazers have had a second half lead, and in every one of those games they've blown the lead, all but once in the fourth quarter.  Against Utah they had a double digit lead with eight minutes to play and wound up losing.  Against Houston they had a ten point lead with six minutes to play and needed Roy's miracle hero-bonehead-hero combo to pull off a most unlikely win in overtime.  While hosting Minnesota they inexcusably lost a double digit fourth quarter lead and needed Roy to hit another game winner with 30 seconds left, and then Al Jefferson and Kevin Love to miss tip shots in the waning seconds.  Finally, against Orlando they lost their lead in the third quarter, but scored the first 11 points of the final stanza and were never really threatened from there on out. 

Still, that was the first game of the season where they didn't fully blow a seemingly comfortable fourth quarter lead.  Maybe it's focus, or defense, or maybe a string of bad luck.  I don't know.  What I know is they won't be a playoff team if they can't hold double digit leads in the fourth and be able to rest their starters in the end.  If they keep their foot on the gas, the leads can balloon to 15-20 points and then Roy, Aldridge, Rudy, etc. can come out and rest instead of being counted on to make plays down the stretch.  It doesn't matter too much this early in the year, but later on those extra five minutes of rest at the end of a game will really add up and keep key players from breaking down during a playoff push.

5. Joel Pyrzbilla's foul trouble:

This is kinda nit-picky, but when the team goes 3-1 there isn't a lot to dislike.  Some of The Thrilla's fouls are pretty ticky-tack (by the way, isn't "The Thrilla" just about the least appropriate nickname in the NBA?  I mean, Joel is a good defender and a good rebounder, but nothing he does in remotely thrilling.  Even his blocks are more the tap-it-to-the-teammate type than the spike-it-six-rows-deep-and-spill-some-rich-guy's-beer type.), but he also is caught out of position a lot and had at least 4 fouls every game this week.  With Oden down Joel needs to be on the court as much as possible, and he hasn't really been doing that.  Even when Oden comes back it's expected that Joel will still start for a bit, and he needs to stay out of foul trouble so that Oden can come in when McMillan deems it appropriate, not when fouls make it necessary.

Also of Note:

Word from Blazers practice is that Greg Oden is set to return to action tomorrow night against the Heat, albeit in a reserve role.  Apparently, he went through Tuesday's practice without pain and looked as good as ever, though Greg Oden without pain is hard to believe and his "good as ever" isn't that great thus far.  Still, it's not like his addition will be a subtraction.  Basically, if he wakes up this morning and is able to get around okay, he will play against Miami.  The only way he starts is if the trainer thinks it's better he plays while his ankle is still loose from warmups, but most likely Pyrzbilla will start and Greg will come off the bench.

A lot of fans have already been calling for Greg to start out coming off the bench, and initially I was against this idea.  However, I've warmed up to it, and here's why:

1. It makes Oden EARN his starting spot, just like Roy and Aldridge had to do.  Oden hasn't proved anything yet in the NBA.

2. The starting unit has some good chemistry going right now, and if Oden starts they will feel obligated to give him touches.  The team is winning right now and I don't want it tinkered with too much.

3. This allows Oden to fully recover at a more comfortable pace.  Instead of the 30+ minutes he would see as a starter, he'll have 15-20 in a reserve role unless he proves he can handle more.  This helps prevent further injury.

4. He gets to play against reserves, which lessens the pressure on him.

Also, Miami is a great team for him to return against because they have no true center.  Who's guarding Oden this game?  Haslem is probably the best option, and while he is a solid pro, he doesn't have nearly the mass it will take to contain Oden.  Some people will call all of this babying Oden, I call it developing him.  He's more project than player on offense and he certainly doesn't have an NBA-ready post game.  Still, at the absolute worst Oden will be another Pyrzbilla for now, and Portland could do worse than having Pyrzbilla-level talent on the floor for 40+ minutes a game.

Token non-Blazer Thought:

Lebron James is simply playing out of his mind right now.  Every time I think he's reached some sort of limit, he blows right past it.  He's scored 41 points in three of his last four games, and the one he didn't score 41 in he had 29, 9, and 8.  Now, I don't know how far he can carry the Cavs and the jury is still out on Mo Williams as the #2 option, but I do believe that James is the best individual talent in the league right now.  He will probably finish top ten in assists per game and should certainly finished top two in scoring.  The Cavs are a top four team in the East and should have around 50 wins, and all of this adds up to Lebron's first MVP award. 

Yes, I'm calling it this early, Lebron James will be the NBA MVP this season, though his Cavs will once again fall to either the Pistons or the Celtics in the playoffs.  James had a very strong rookie year, posting 20-5-5...and he's improved SIGNIFICANTLY every subsequent year he's played.  If/when he adds a reliable jumper to his arsenal he will be simply and unfairly unstoppable, and if/when he becomes a lockdown defender he may well become a top five all-time player.

The Week Ahead:

The Blazers are on an extended road trip, with all of their upcoming games away from the Rose Garden.  First up is Miami and Oden's expected return, though Roy will be limited with back spasms suffered against Orlando.  Then there's New Orleans on Friday, Minnesota on Saturday, and finally Golden State on Tuesday.

The schedule isn't nearly as brutal as the first two weeks, but it isn't exactly easy.  The win in Orlando was Portland's first on the road, and last year they didn't win their first road game until December.  Still, Miami should be a win due to the Heat's lack of depth and size.  New Orleans will probably beat them, as the Hornets are a healthy title contender at home.  Minnesota is another likely win for Portland, and Golden State is pretty much a coin toss.  In the event of a coin toss, my homerism wins out and so I say the Blazers go 3-1 on this trip and improve their record to 7-4.  Of course, with such a young team that is so poor on the road, I wouldn't be too surprised if they went 0-4, and since Oden is returning and they have some momentum right now I also wouldn't be shocked to see them go 4-0.  Such is the life of a Blazers fan.

Parting Thought:

If the Blazers have such a thing as a controversy at the moment it's backup point guard Sergio Rodriguez.  He earned the backup spot in preseason with some much-improved ball control and a better looking shot.  However, thus far in the season he's only getting a shade over ten minutes a game.  Apparently last Friday his agent came out and demanded a trade, though to Sergio's credit he quickly said he was happy in Portland and didn't want to leave.

Sergio's unquestioned strength is his passing, which seems more inborn than learned by how natural he is distributing, and his ball handling is above average as well.  He sports a nice 4/1 assist-to-turnover ratio and doesn't make the dumb mistakes that cost him so much playing time last year.  His weaknesses are his defense and his shooting (33% from the floor, 20% from three).  On the right team Sergio is a good #2 point that could see as much as 25 minutes a game.

The problem with Sergio is that he's in the wrong system:  McMillan runs a steady, controlled game and Sergio runs a chaotic fast break game.  McMillan emphasizes defense and Sergio falls over on defense (no, really, Tony Parker actually made him fall on his butt twice in one quarter this year).  In a system like the Warriors or the Suns a couple years ago Sergio would be a gem, but in Portland he's a square peg in a round hole.

For now he does a good job of managing the game when Blake or Roy aren't running the point, but you can see him so tempted to break loose and run, especially now that friend and longtime teammate Rudy Fernandez is aboard.  What I expect is that as Jerryd Bayless (remember him?) learns the system he will become the fourth guard in the rotation and Sergio will grudgingly return to the pine and eventually be traded.