FanNation - The Republic of Sport

See the clever title?  Because in my opinion Oden never really played before, so I said "turn" instead of "return" and then...hehe...um...okay, it wasn't that funny.  Moving along...

Week in Review

2-2 (6-5 overall)

All things considered, this was a good week.  It started in Miami with the turn of Greg Oden and a relatively easy 104-96 win, though Wade certainly did his best to make things interesting toward the end.  He and Lebron are really, really playing at a completely different level right now.  Two days later was an 87-82 loss to the Hornets in New Orleans.  Portland had the ball and was down three with ten seconds left, but Brandon Roy left a tough three short and two Hornet free throws iced the game.  The following night was a tired, lackluster effort in Minnesota, but the Blazers still managed an 88-83 win after being down by as much as 12 in the second half.  Finally, just last night the Blazers lost another road game to the Warriors 111-106. The Blazers mounted another rally that came up short, once again having the ball while down three with ten seconds left.  This time Roy drove and dished to Outlaw, who was fouled and sank the first, then committed a lane violation as he hit the second one.  On the other end with five seconds left Rudy Fernandez committed a clear foul and then was hit with a T for arguing, effectively ending the game.  Golden State also really helped their cause by going 24-25 from the line after halftime. 

Still, going back to last week's win in Orlando, Portland went 3-2 on a five game road trip, which is about as good as one could hope for considering the woes the team had on the road last year.  Every loss has been competitive except for the dismemberment in LA to open the season, and discounting the Phoenix loss Portland has had a chance to tie or lead in the final seconds.  They've won every game they were supposed to and have some wins against admittedly superior teams.  Things are going well.

Five Things I Liked

1. Greg Oden baby!:

Sure, he is still raw.  In his redebut against Miami he had a mere 2 points, 2 boards, and two blocks in 16 minutes.  He's yet to make a start since the foot sprain.  And he turns it over far too often in the post (his FIVE turnovers against Golden State were as costly as anything else).  But he's looked better each time out.  In his first game against LA, he had 0 points, 5 boards, and a block before getting hurt.  Then his stat line against Miami 15 days later.  Against the Hornets he recorded his first double-double with 11 points, 11 boards, and four blocks in 24 minutes, then 13-8-3 with 2 steals in 24 minutes against Minnesota.  Finally, against the Warriors he logged 22-10-2 in 30 minutes and was simply dominant at times on offense.  Due to this steady increase in production and his mere presence on the court, he earns my Blazers MVP of the Week award.

He still is uncomfortable in the post a lot of the time and isn't in the best shape, but is NBA ready on defense and in rebounding and his offense is honestly better than I thought it would be at this point.  Also, while he has been coming off the bench to start games he's also finishing games on the floor and now plays the majority of the 4th quarter; against Minnesota he was the best closing player for Portland until Roy took over.

Bottom line, it doesn't look like this kid is a flop or a bust, and it's nice to finally see what all the hype is about.  Finally, keep in mind he is nowhere near a finished product yet and will certainly struggle at times, especially against the better centers in the NBA.  It sure is nice to have him out there though.

2. Brandon Roy in the clutch:

Should I just copy and paste this for every week?  First, his overall production has been consistent and solid (22.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 3.8 rpg last week) and better than last year.  He is also clearly the guy that should have the ball in his hands down the stretch.  Against Miami he drove the lane and found Steve Blake wide open for three to ice the game.  In New Orleans he hit Portland's only two shots of the last SEVEN minutes (disgusting, I know), but both were threes in the final two minutes to give the Blazers a chance until he missed a fadeaway three over a double team in the final seconds (not the best choice).  In Minnesota he once again haunted the team that traded him on draft night: with Portland down one in the final 1:30 he first hit a driving lefty layup, then scored on a breakaway dunk, and then finally penetrated and found Outlaw for a 20 footer to put it away.  The Warriors game didn't really give him a chance to be clutch, but he still scored seven points and had four assists in the final nine minutes to keep things close.

Roy and Oden also seem to be developing a nice chemistry in the pick and roll game to complement a growing pick and pop game with Lamarcus Aldridge.  Basically, whatever offense Portland runs, it runs through Roy.

3. The point guard duo:

As I mentioned last week, Sergio Rodriguez began to make some noise about his lack of playing time and coach Nate increased his minutes these past four games.  After averaging only nine minutes a game in the first seven games of the year, Sergio put in a little over 22 minutes a game in the last four and he's earned every minute.  The combo of him and Steve Blake are producing a solid 2-1 ast/to ratio and hit over 40% from three.  Blake is a little better shooter and Sergio is a little better passer, and they complement all the other parts of the Blazers offense nicely without being a major liability on defense.  It still would be nice to have one steady and heady veteran to man the point, but Blake and Sergio provide at least a stopgap to the point guard issue in Portland.

4.  Rudy against Miami:

Other than the Miami game he had rather typical performances, but in Miami on national TV he really made his name known.  He dropped a team-high 25 on Miami and was HUGE in the final period, outperforming even Roy.  In that 4th he shot 5-5 from the field for 14 points, including a momentum-turning alley-oop dunk from Sergio (those two have simply amazing chemistry) and a spinning 17 foot dagger as the shot clock expired in the final minute.  It also doesn't hurt that he's 4th in the NBA at over 94% from the line.  With Aldridge in a bit of a slump lately (more on that later) Rudy is either the second or third best scoring option behind Roy and possibly Oden.  

5. Jay Jensen:

Who?  Jensen is entering his 15th season as the Blazers trainer, and has really had his hands full in the past two seasons. Oden's recovery after microfracture surgery fell largely on Jensen's shoulders, and he had Oden rehabbed completely on schedule.  When the big man went down again he was projected to be out 2-4 weeks, and Jensen had him back with no pain and seven pounds lighter 15 days later.

Furthermore, Martell Webster (remember him?) went down after the first preseason game with a broken foot and was expected to be out until the end of December, but Jensen is working his magic once again and Webster expects to return on December 5th now.

I hate to admit it, but Portland seems to be an oft-injured team, so it's really nice to have an experienced and excellent trainer to get the guys back out as soon as possible.

Five Things I Didn't Like

1. Power forward play:

What a difference a week makes.  Yes, Frye has been off pretty much the whole season, but Aldridge was the best Blazers player last week and has been progressively worse each of the past four games.  Last week he went for 21.8 and 8.5 against some really tough opponents, and against much easier competition this past week he only had 9.8 ppg and 6.3 rpg including a pathetic 4 points and 4 boards against the Warriors before fouling out early in the 4th with only 20 minutes of playing time.

Frye has been bad all season long and really needs to turn it around if he wants a future in Portland.  He's a jumpshooting forward that isn't hitting his jump shot (36.7% from the field) and hasn't really made any effort to defend or rebound. 

I also don't believe that Aldridge's decrease in production is a direct correlation to Oden's increase in production, as some are suggesting.  Sure, Oden probably takes a few rebounds Aldridge would have had and scores a few point Aldridge would have scored, but he also creates more rebounding chances with his interior defense and clears some scoring space by taking double team that Lamarcus used to face.  Aldridge has been fumbling easy passes away and missing his fadaway post up shot that he loves so much.  I do expect him to rebound from this slump and be that viable 2nd/3rd option again as soon as next week, but had he been in his usual form this past week the Blazers likely would have gone 4-0 instead of 2-2.

2. Jump Shooting:

This too seems like something I could copy and paste every week.  While Oden has surprisingly been a decent scoring option down low, the team as a whole is still settling for far too many outside jumpers instead of driving to the rim.  Outlaw is by far the greatest at fault, though basically everyone except for Roy and Oden and now to a degree Aldridge settle outside and jack up 20 footers.  

Portland is 26th in the NBA in free throws attempted, and no matter what some diehard fan(atics) on oregonlive.com and iamatrailblazersfan.com will tell you it isn't because of refs fixing the game.  It's because almost nobody will drive to the rim or post up.  Rudy, Outlaw, Sergio, and Frye all have the ability to get close, but none of them are doing so.  It would add a very necessary dimension to the offense and the team will not come close to realizing its full potential until they get some closer shots.

3. Travis Outlaw:

When he's hot, he can be the best player on the team.  When he's not, he can kill you.  This past week, he was not on.  He scored in double figures consistently, but he also shot under 40% for the week.  I said last week that was okay so long as he did other things, but with the exception of one good defensive play against Minnesota he's been unimpressive.  His rebounding dipped below five a game and while he was assigned to the best perimeter player defensively much of the time, he also got beat much of the time. He also pulled a major bonehead play by stepping over the free throw line before his attempt went in against the Warriors, which he had no reason to do.  Had the shot counted (aka if Outlaw had used his brain) Portland would have been down one and been able to foul.  Worst case, they are down three with the ball at center court and 3 seconds left.  They would have had a chance and Outlaw cost them that.

The hard thing about Travis is that since I know what he is capable of I can't say I want him playing for another team. I just want him to A) be aggressive offensively because he CAN usually get by his man but elects to pull up rather than keep driving and B) put more energy on defense than on offense.  With the addition of Rudy there is always a couple of scoring options outside of Outlaw on the floor, and so while he CAN be an offensive threat, a lot of the time he would better serve the team on defense.  He has the build and has shown he even has the ability, so it is really puzzling that his defense is so dramatically inconsistent.

4. The last possession against New Orleans:

Really, the final seven minutes were bad offensively, but the defense held the Hornets to similar production.  On the last play, with Portland down three and ten second left, Roy of course had the ball.  The play called for him to funnel to the left sideline, where he was promptly double teamed.  When there is a double team on the sideline it is essentially a triple team, and Roy was completely trapped.  He did one pivote, then faded back and lauched a three that was about the same difficulty level as the one he hit against Houston.  You can expect to hit a shot like that maybe twice a year, and they won't happen one week apart.

Here were the problems with that play:

1) Roy doubted it from the start and said nothing.  He's more comfortable at the top of the key where A) he can't get trapped and B) he can see the whole floor.

2) Rudy WAS open for three and Roy missed him,  even though he should have been able to see him.

3) This is what bothers me the most- THEY HAD A TIMEOUT LEFT!!  I don't know if it was Nate's fault for not informing his players or Roy's fault for not realizing it, but you HAVE to be aware of the timeout situation in circumstances like that.  As soon as Roy was trapped he should have called timeout so they could reset the play.

This is an example of a young coach and a young team learning how to handle close situations.  I'm confident that a mistake like this wouldn't happen again, and a lot of these early games will be a learning experience for Portland.  Still, you hate to lose a close game due to an avoidable mistake.

5. The Warriors at the stripe:

Where exactly do they get off shooting 33-35 from the line for the game?  They are a 70% free throw shooting team for the season, ranked 29th in the league.  Then they go and do that?  They literally didn't miss from the line in the last five minutes, which makes it very difficult to rally.  Had they shot their average Portland would have had another comeback win.  I give them plenty of credit for hitting their freebies, but really wish they hadn't. 

Also of Note

Something going a bit unnoticed is how well Portland hits the three.  They are actually second in the NBA in three point shooting.  Outlaw, Fernandez, and Blake are all above 40% so far in the season, Roy and Batum both hit them with general regularity, bigs Aldridge and Frye can step out and hit them, and let's not forget Webster led the team in threes made last year and will be back in a few weeks.  Now, I know I just finished complaining about them not driving to the basket, but as long as they shoot them from far away it's nice that they are hitting them.

If the whole inside scoring thing is ever taken care of, open threes will become even more regular due to rotation and collapsing defenses.  I'd prefer it if Aldridge and Frye stayed inside, but all the others are fine at spotting up.  This team just has so many dimensions and so many ways it can kill opponents, once the kinks are worked out they really will be a contender.

Token Non-Blazer Thought

Why, why, why do the Yankees always overbid for free agents?  6 years, $140 million to Sabathia?  I highly doubt anyone else eclipses a $110 million offer.  Is it just to show that they can?  What's more, if CC does join the Yanks I have very large doubts about him.  For one, he was more than bad in the AL with the Indians this year and only really began to be a dominant pitcher once again when he moved to the NL.  Second, he threw what, 240 innings last year?  He's probably going to have arm/shoulder issues.  Finally, name the last big name pitcher the Yanks landed that performed at the same level he did before.  I'll wait...

...

...

You can't, because it hasn't happened really since Mike Mussina in 2001, and even then it took him some time to get back to his old level.  Randy Johnson?  Carl Pavano?  Roger Clemens?  Yikes.  I may be wrong, but I think this will come back to bite the Yanks once again.

The Week Ahead

Portland starts this next week tonight against the Bulls in the Rose Garden on ESPN, their first home game in eleven days.  It's a matchup of three rookie of the year contenders (Oden, Fernandez, and the sensational Derrick Rose) and a duel of talented young teams.  I don't see anyone who can match Oden inside or guard Roy outside, so I believe this is a win for Portland, though given current trends it will likely be close.  Next is an away game on Friday against the Kings, who are in rebuilding mode.  However, as it is a road game this is another coin toss.  As always, homerism wins the coin toss so I call for a Blazer win here. The following night is at Phoenix, where Oden faces his toughest test yet in Shaq.  I can't see Portland winning this since Phoenix is a better team, it's in Phoenix, and it's the second of a back-to-back for Portland.  Lastly, on Monday Portland plays host to the Kings.  Since it's after some rest and it's at home, Portland should win this one.

This upcoming week is undeniably the easiest the Blazers have faced thus far.  I predicted them to struggle early on without Oden, against tougher foes, and with two rookies in the top seven rotation spots.  I really thought something more like 4-7 was where they would be standing right now.  Maybe I'm a pessimist, but nobody outside the most hopeful of homers could really have expected this 6-5 start and it will only get easier from here.

Parting Thought

As I previously mentioned, Martel Webster is expected back in about two weeks.  This creates a bit of a logjam at the small forward position.  Nicolas Batum has been starting there since the second week of the season and been doing well, Outlaw has been coming off the bench with solid though mixed results, and Roy slides over there for about 5-10 minutes a game in a three guard lineup.  Throwing Webster in the mix means someone will be the odd man out.  I figure it has to be Batum because he is raw on offense, is a rookie, and hasn't played much in the 4th anyway.

However, this is just a microcosm of an issue the Blazers will face time and time again in the near future.  At some point Batum will want and deserve minutes again, and someone will have to go for good.  A similar problem has already cropped up at guard, where Roy, Rudy, Sergio, and Blake all somewhat akwardly share minutes while highly-touted and summer league MVP rookie Jerryd Bayless sees basically no time at all.  Sometime in the next year or two Portland will have to make either one big trade or a series of smaller trades to streamline things a bit.

When that happens it will have to be done with utmost care.  I won't even begin to speculate on possible departing parties, but I would assume among the desire incoming assets there is a veteran point guard, a bruising and physical power forward, and a reliable perimeter defender.  There is also the fact that whoever goes, the Blazers will be departing with a young and talented player.  GM Kevin Pritchard has proven to be very good at trading for young talent, but how good is he at trading it away?  I'm just glad I'm merely in a position to judge his decisions rather than make them.