Scott Jensen: Cubs Buy High With Dempster | DugoutCentral.com's Blog

A Great Season Does Not a Great Pitcher Make On Tuesday the Chicago Cubs signed starting pitcher Ryan Dempster to a four-year, $52M contract. There is no reason to think this is a good signing. In fact, all data points to the opposite direction for the pitcher who finished sixth in this year???s National League Cy Young voting. Look for yourself. Here are some of Dempster???s numbers since his rookie season: Year Games Started Innings ERA+ WHIP 1998 11 54.7 57 2.012 1999 25 147.0 92 1.626 2000 33 226.3 120 1.356 2001 34 211.3 86 1.562 2002 33 209.0 77 1.536 2003 20 115.7 63 1.764 2004 0 20.7 112 1.403 2005 6 92.0 141 1.435 2006 0 75.0 96 1.507 2007 0 66.7 99 1.335 2008 33 206.7 151 1.210 Career 195 1,425.0 95 1.491 So what can we surmise? Dempster is an average starting pitcher who had a great year. Having a great year doesn???t make you a great pitcher (see Todd Jones, 5th in 2000 Cy Young voting, Carl Pavano, 6th in 2004, Esteban Loaiza, 2nd in 2003, etc.). Here???s the breakdown of Dempster???s six seasons of starting: Excellent years: 1 (2008) Good years: 1 (2000) Average years: 2 (2001, 1999) Awful years: 3 (2003, 2002, 1998) So what is Dempster? Based on his history, he???s someone who can take the ball every five days and give you 6.5 innings of slightly below average stuff. That???s not to say he won???t improve, or have a great year here or there, but there isn???t the history to suggest that it???s likely. So is Dempster worth four years and $52M? Probably not. He???ll be 35 by the end of the deal, and that means we should expect some natural performance decline. And based on his history, he???ll probably throw out one 72 ERA+, 1.550 WHIP season before the deal is done. The Cubs would have been better off letting Dempster go and taking the draft picks, and knowing that they got tremendous value for Dempster???s $7.3M salary in 2008 ??? a great year by a slightly below average pitcher.

Comments (1) Add A Comment

November 20, 2008 05:45 PM ET

Report Abuse | QUOTE

I wish I could get through reading this blog, but the ???s drive me crazy, not to mention all of the numbers that aren't in a column. Maybe Dempster won't have another year as good as last, but realistically 13 mil a year is less than the Cubs would pay to a number 2 or 3 to replace him.