Saturday November 22, 2008 - Oh, what a glorious day! It's like Christmas came a month early for the Oklahoma Sooners and their fans. However, what a few have deemed as a dream come true has become a nightmare for college football analysts and bloggers. I'm going to do my best to break down this situation.
Let's begin by looking at their matchups with one another:
Texas vs. Oklahoma (neutral): This was one of the best Red River Shootouts of recent memory. Both teams played well. In the first half, Oklahoma looked to be the dominant team. At halftime, even the analysts stated that Texas was lucky to still be in the game. With each team's opening possessions of the 2nd half, it appeared that Oklahoma's dominance would continue. Then the nightmare began. With a lead of 28-20, Oklahoma's defensive leader, Ryan Reynolds, suffered a torn ACL. He was lost for the season. Say what you will about the effect of 1 player, but before Reynolds left the game Oklahoma had held Texas to 20 points and an average of 4.6 yards per play. Texas' run game was non-existent as Reynolds either stopped everything that came his way or forced it another direction. After Reynolds left the game, Oklahoma gave up 25 points and 8.3 yards per play, and Texas' rushing attack exploded. There were questionable calls on both sides of the ball, but the better team that day ultimately won.
Texas vs. Texas Tech (@ Texas Tech): The first half was all Texas Tech. The Longhorns could do nothing on offense, and while they made a few stops on defense, they still found themselves down 19-0 before their offense finally picked up a field goal. Halftime score: 22-3. In the 3rd quarter, Texas appeared to be finding their groove as their offense picked up 16 points, and their defense held Texas Tech to a single touchdown. End of 3rd quarter: 29-19. 13 minutes and 31 seconds of the 4th quarter was all Texas as they outscored Texas Tech 14-3. Unfortunately for Texas, a quarter consists of 15 full minutes. Texas Tech's offense pulled through, and the Red Raiders felled the #1 team in the nation 39-33. Texas had a decent 2nd half, but the overall body of work belonged to the Red Raiders, and the better team that day ultimately won.
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma (@ Oklahoma): Amazing. Perfect. There are few words to describe what this game turned out to be, especially for the Sooners and their fans. Texas Tech's high-scoring offense came into town only to be absolutely shut down by a defense that had been average at best all season. It was almost as if Brent Venables had a copy of not only Mike Leach's playbook but also the order in which he would run those plays. After an impressive 1st half by both the offense and defense, Oklahoma had an insurmountable 42-7 lead. The 2nd half wasn't much different, and Oklahoma not only held Texas Tech to it's smallest point total (21) of the season but also scored more points (65) on them then they had ever had scored on them in the history of their program.
So what do we have?
Oklahoma loses on a neutral field to Texas by a score of 45-35. Obvious advantage to Texas in the Big 12 South.
Next Texas loses to Texas Tech in Lubbock by a score of 39-33. Advantage to Texas Tech in the Big 12 South.
Finally, Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma in Norman by a score of 65-21.
The question now is, "Who has the advantage?" Let's look at their other bodies of work and decide.
As we look at their notable wins, we will look at each opponent's current ranking rather than their ranking at the time.
Texas Notable Wins
#3 Oklahoma (neutral) 45-35
#13 Missouri (home) 56-31
#12 Oklahoma State (home) 28-24
Oklahoma Notable Wins
#16 Cincinatti (home) 52-26
#15 TCU (home) 35-10
#7 Texas Tech (home) 65-21
Texas Tech Notable Wins
#2 Texas (home) 39-33
#12 Oklahoma State (home) 56-20
As of now, Texas appears to have the advantage. First of all, their only loss was on the road, and it was by only 6 points. Secondly, they have 3 wins against teams that are currently ranked in the top 13 with the highest one ranked #3. Oklahoma appears to be second in line with also 3 wins over ranked teams. However, 2 of the teams are outside the top 13, and their highest ranked opponent is at #7. Texas Tech is at the disadvantage with wins over only 2 ranked teams.
What do these 3 teams all have in common? None of them have beaten a formidable foe on the road. Texas and Texas Tech both had their chance to defeat a ranked opponent on the road but came up short. Oklahoma has yet to get that chance. They will on Saturday. One has to assume that a win over #12 ranked Oklahoma State in Stillwater would give Oklahoma the clear advantage in the Big 12 South. A win over Oklahoma State would not only give Oklahoma 4 notable wins (more than Texas or Texas Tech), but it would make them the only team out of the 3 to show that they can win against tough competition in a less than favorable atmosphere.
It's time to stop with all this head to head nonsense and time to start giving credit where credit is due. Sure, Texas beat Oklahoma. How quickly we forget that Texas Tech controlled the game vs. Texas for 3/4 of the game and pulled the win. The argument that Texas is giving for not allowing the Sooners to be ranked above the Longhorns can be used against them by Texas Tech. A 3 way tie is just that. A tie. The only way to decide it is to look at the entire body of work. If Oklahoma wins in Stillwater on Saturday while Texas Tech and Texas are beating up on the 2 worst teams in the division, the advantage has to go to them.
Tori Praver
Cintia Dicker
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Sled Hockey
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This will be close in the final BCS.
Here's some other notes (for now take TT out of the picture):
Texas did play a tougher B12 north scchedule.
OU did play a tougher OOC schedule with a notable win over Cinci. When the game was scheduled 4 to 5 years ago, Cinci had yet to play a season in the major 6 conferences. It is tough to give a lot of credit for a team that expected to be playing a bottom dweller who turned into a possible conference champ.
OU-Texas was close, but so was TT-Texas. Call them a wash.
Some differences of opinion
You can't speak of looking at the entire body of work in the same breath you talk about the last game being against the 2 worse teams in the division.
You could equate body of work to SOS. You could equate the BCS computer polls to a measurement of SOS since they can't take into account MoV. Rigt now that leans towards Texas' favor.
Bu most off all, you can't consider head to head as nonsense. This is sports, It is all about wins and lossses. It doesn't matter how good your coaches or athletes are - if you can't convert that to wins... tough. The lesser team wins all the time in NCAAF.
If you remove TT from the equation (which I find easy to do with an OOC schedule which includes 2 FCS teams and no team from the major 6), it takes a lot of smoke and mirrors not to credit Texas with the win.
Had the resuts of Texas' games againat both OU and TT been reversed, I would give the nod to OU.
...and before you write 4 paragraphs, I know you are into TDs and debating. I am not on this topic. Post what you will, but you know these are some solid points on a decision which looks to be decided in thousandths of a point in the BCS.
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
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Off topic but related...
1/3 of the decision will be determined by the watered down computer polls (though since they are really an SOS ranking, they might be the most valid)
The majority of another 1/3 is decided by coaches outside the B12, most of which haven't faced any B12 team this year.
The majority of the final 1/3 is decided by sportswriters outside the b12 area.
This is nuts.
The desision should be made by the people who know these teams best - the other coaches in the B12. The tie breaker shoud be based on a vote by them.
Nice work on the blog. G/L to your team.
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Frellin Cold In, AK
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I get what you are saying, but my main concern is with what I have quoted above. The head to head is a wash. Texas>Oklahoma>Texas Tech>Texas. It's a neverending cycle.
A lot of people have said remove Texas Tech from the equation. Why? Did they not beat a #1 Texas team? Were they not ahead 22-3 before a 2nd half rally by Texas? The fact is that a Texas Tech team that beat Texas by 6 went into Norman Saturday night and lost by nearly as many points as Citadel to Florida.
This topic will surely be debated all week, but I am certain that if Texas and Texas Tech both win their games, the game in Stillwater will decide the Big 12 South.
DO_WORK_SON
Travis Afb , CA
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Great idea, actually. They decide the All-Big 12 Team so why not decide a tiebreaker? The strange thing about the tiebreakers is that after the BCS, it goes to win %. If the win % is the same for all, the winner is chosen by draw. A vote would be much more logical.
DO_WORK_SON
Travis Afb , CA
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In the olden days...
...long before everyone above .500 went to the bowls...
...back when there was just 1 major bowl per conference and the alphabet only had 17 letter and we liked it that way!...
...these decisions were decided by a vote of the conference coaches.
I think Michigan is still sore about a vote that went against them!
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Frellin Cold In, AK
Total Comments (6838)
Good blog,but here is my point. Tech is no where in the picture nor should they be per the shellacking OU game them. It comes down to UT and OU. UT won on a neutral site. UT should go. That's my opinion.
Agrippa GODSON
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Good blog, DWS.
Dyhard
Germantown, WI
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