FanNation - The Republic of Sport

The big numbers tell the Michigan State football story as the regular season comes to a close. Last year's group was a 7-6 team. Those that returned played a slightly tougher schedule in 2008 and have come out with (so far) a 9-3 record. That alone appears as big progress, but in Big Ten conference games, the changes are more dramatic: a 3-5 record became 6-2 against exactly the same slate of teams.

Iowa and Northwestern illustrate this last point. Each was a 6-6 team a year ago with no bowl prospects, yet both defeated Michigan State. This year, both had markedly improved records (17-7 combined) and will go to bowl games. Yet this time both were beaten by the Spartans. Soundly beaten, in the case of 9-3 Northwestern.

But some interesting nuance creeps up in the smaller statistics, particularly when you focus on just the eight Big Ten conference games over each season. It bodes well for next season.

Last year, Michigan State had the best scoring offense in the conference while winning those three conference games. This year, they'd fallen to 6th best. Likewise, scoring defense last year was a dismal 9th, but improved to only 7th this year.

On and on this trend goes for every meaningful statistic. Total offense and defense last year were 1st and 7th, respectively; both fell to 8th this year. Red zone offense was 1st, but now 3rd; red zone defense was 7th, and is now 10th.

Last year's +2 turnover margin became this year's -1. For perspective, Ohio State finished first at +12.

For all of the deserved praise about Javon Ringer's running, he was just one man carrying the entire workload for a run-based offensive attack. The result was a 10th place finish out of eleven teams for rushing yards. Last year, with the very able Jehuu Caulcrick sharing the load, the Spartans' rush offense was 3rd. The difference was more than 80 yards per Big Ten game.

How do those mediocre-to-awful conference stats in nearly every major category, with many of them showing declines from last year's team that won just three conference games, translate into twice that many wins this year?

Unlike every other top team, 3rd place Michigan State played all of the other toughest Big Ten teams this year: 5th place Iowa and co-champ Ohio State didn't meet; neither did 4th place Northwestern and co-champ Penn State. Every other team that played at least four of the top five finished with far fewer wins.

The stats are thus deceptive. The Spartans came within one game of navigating one of the toughest schedules in the conference to a share of the title. Throw out the horrible numbers from the blowout defeats against the co-champs and the picture improves dramatically.

What does this mean moving forward?

In Mark Dantonio's first season, inheriting mostly somebody else's players, just 12 of 22 starters came back and the team won seven games. This year, 13 of 22 starters returned and they won (so far) nine games. Next season, it appears that 14 of 22 starters will return with two solid years of experience playing under this coach.

By contrast, Penn State returned 18 of 22 starters this year from a team that won nine games and Ohio State returned 19 of 22 from a team that won eleven games. Both of the programs sharing the title this year have stable leadership, have won nine or more games each of the previous three seasons and were in no way having a "rebuilding" period remotely comparable to what Michigan State has been going through. They were supposed to dominate games this year. The only real surprise is those games where they failed to do so.

But going forward, the Buckeyes could lose as many as ten starters next year; the Nittany Lions twelve. Both will likely still be good, but neither is likely to replicate what happened this season. The 2009 Big Ten race is wide open.

Next year, while Michigan State obviously loses a starting quarterback and tailback, they return the starting fullback, the tight end and three of five offensive linemen. At receiver, only one backup -- Deon Curry with just five receptions playing in seven games -- will graduate. Every other starting receiver and backup receiver will return.

Defensively, two of the four starting linemen and two of the four defensive backs depart. All three starting linebackers return, and two of whom -- Greg Jones and Eric Gordon -- are sophomores that finished ranked No. 1 and No. 11 in the conference for tackles. Ohio State's two-time All-American senior James Laurinaitis, soon likely to be a high NFL draft choice, finished 2nd behind Jones.

Note that the running game actually performed better with more than one back carrying the load. That will be the case next year. Despite losing Javon Ringer, it is possible that the rushing attack will get stronger. The key is likely finding two or three Jehuu Caulcricks on the team, and not necessarily finding another gem like Javon Ringer.

Likewise, the new quarterback -- either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol -- will have a full set of experienced receivers to throw to. Each quarterback also has playing experience, though Nichol's was at Oklahoma, where he failed to beat out Sam Bradford for a starting job (no shame in that.)

There is, in short, a lot of promise that a good team can get a whole lot better very soon.

And, saving the best for last, the Big Ten schedules rotate, and the change is very generous. The Spartans will take a two-year break from Ohio State and Indiana and face Illinois and Minnesota instead.

In the non-conference, the tough season opener on the road versus Cal becomes a home opener against Montana State, with also -- in likely order of difficulty -- Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Notre Dame. No disrespect to those 1-AA teams, as we know how they love coming to Michigan, nor to two of the MAC's very best programs right now, but nobody on that list is likely to compare to what Cal was this season. (Notre Dame, I will flatly predict right now, is going to rival this year's mediocrity unless there is a leadership change.)

Taking a break from the Ohio State juggernaut is obviously huge. If the 2008 Spartans had instead played the teams on the 2009 schedule during this season, it's not implausible that they would be 11-1 right now, having lost only to Penn State at the very end. That might have been good enough for a BCS game.

This spring, I looked at the season and saw eight wins and a fourth place finish. I got nine wins and 3rd place, guessing only one game wrong in that early estimate (Wisconsin.) Again looking forward at this very early date, even better things for 2009 -- including a conference title -- is not out of the question.

The future is bright. The State of the Spartans is strong.