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Texas-Texas A&M is in the books.  While the Big 12 South awaits to see if there is an upset in the OU-OSU game or TT-Baylor, there are a lot more games the Texas and OU fans should be following on the ticker should OU and TT win as expected.

The Voting Polls

The voting polls are extremely close and they count based on the vote total in the BCS.  I don't know how every last ballot was cast, but the outcome in these games could move texas closer to OU.

Florida over FSU benefits Texas (this may be a surprise, but right now Florida looks to be splitting #2 with Oklahoma.  I think it benefits Texas for this to continue)

USC over Notre Dame benefits OU (I think it removes votes for 3rd from Texas, but could hurt OU as well)

Oregon State-Oregon (this bump may not be much, but some pollsters might feel a bit more comfy voting USC higher if they weren't sharing the conference title with Oregon State)

The Computer Polls

With the MOC removed, the BCS computer polls have been reduced to who beats who.  Usually this isn't a huge factor, but with the computer polls so close this is currently boosting Texas from 4th in the voting polls to 2nd in the BCS.  For all of these the favored team is in bold.  I went thru the teams Oklahoma and Texas defeated, and the teams they defeated.  Of course, what doesn't help Texas helps OU, and vice versa.

OU and Texas Opponents Facing Off

Nebraska over Colorado helps OU, otherwise a boost for Texas

Kansas over Missouri would help OU

Tulsa over Marshall helps Texas, otherwise a boost for OU.

Elsewhere

The Computer polls go deeper than your opponents of course.  I do not know how deep each computer poll goes or how weight is given to each level, but here is a list of the games involving opponents Texas and OU defeated, as well as the teams they defeated.

Oklahoma

Here is a list of outcomes that would give Oklahoma a boost in the computer polls.  An * denote their direct opponents, the rest are their opponents' opponents (this becomes a factor in some polls where opponents are weighted heavier than their opponents).

*Cincinnati over Syracuse

*TCU over Air Force

Miami over Ohio

Akron over Temple (I don't know who is favored)

SMU over Southern Miss

New Mexico State over Utah State

 

Texas

Here is a list of outcomes that would give Texas a boost in the computer polls.

*UTEP over East Carolina

*Arkansas over LSU

*Rice over Houston

UCF over UAB

Tulane over Memphis

Auburn over Alabama

Nevada over Louisiana Tech

Buffalo over Kent State

WVU over Pittsburgh

 

...and there's more...

Not included in the above are conference games where a team Texas or OU defeated beat both teams playing in another game.  i considere4d this a wash.  In the BCS computer polls, FCS opponents are generally not counted unless they are a loss - the average of the score against the other opponents are averaged to overcome this.  In the computer polls, if the team that played more FCS teams wins, the win is worth more (if anyone was able to follow that).

I didn't include this list because the difference is marginal and because I didn't feel like looking up these records.

Final Thoughts

If I got a favorite wrong, if you think there should be another basis for the tie-breaker in the Big 12, I don't care.  There is likely over a dozen other blogs and message boards that deal with this topic - go find one.

...and no, determining the Big 12 South division champion is not a supporting argument for a playoff system, it is a Big 12 issue that shouldn't require the rest of the BCS to modify their post season to resolve.

For those who follow these teams, above are over 20 games that impact your team's future.  When you consider the favorites and a boost OU will receive from OSU, coupled with many games that boost OU also boost Texas, this looks to come down to the wire late Sunday.

 

Thanks for reading.  Good Luck to your team.

November 28, 2008  09:43 AM ET

Tie Breaker Pie Maker, what would happen if the Sooners beat the Cowboys and go to the conf. championship and lose? Would that bring USC to the ncg if they win out?

Now go back to your Laboratory and don't emerge until come up with the data in which AKRON is favored!

November 28, 2008  04:13 PM ET
QUOTE(#1):

Tie Breaker Pie Maker, what would happen if the Sooners beat the Cowboys and go to the conf. championship and lose? Would that bring USC to the ncg if they win out?Now go back to your Laboratory and don't emerge until come up with the data in which AKRON is favored!

Not certain - I suspect the pollsters repeat 07 and UGa, jumping USC over Texas... except this time the computers elevate Texasinto the NC game.

...and I will pick the Akron, just because they have a better name (Zips - Owls)

...zip, ziiiiiiip, zipppppp, zippa, zippeeeeeee, zipparooni, zippy, zippaaaa....

November 29, 2008  09:21 AM ET
QUOTE(#2):

Not certain - I suspect the...zip, ziiiiiiip, zipppppp, zippa, zippeeeeeee, zipparooni, zippy, zippaaaa....

As it turns out, Temple had a Hoot of a good time with the Zips.

November 30, 2008  11:21 PM ET

Wow. I gotta say, you might be the best college football fan ever. Silars has some good data, but this just goes into the mythical realm. I suspect somebody from a Big 10 school perfected AI, and gave it a compulsion for college football.

December 2, 2008  09:48 AM ET
QUOTE(#4):

Wow. I gotta say, you might be the best college football fan ever. Silars has some good data, but this just goes into the mythical realm. I suspect somebody from a Big 10 school perfected AI, and gave it a compulsion for college football.

Thank you, but it really didn't take a lot to look up - just looked up who Texas and OU defeated, and the teams they defeated.

It did make games I would have cared less about relevant last weekend. As the ay wore on, it looked worse an worse for Texas in the computers... it seemed like most of the results played out against Texas, including some "Upsets"


Thnaks for reading and thanks for the compliment.

 
January 10, 2009  11:49 PM ET
QUOTE(#4):

Wow. I gotta say, you might be the best college football fan ever. Silars has some good data, but this just goes into the mythical realm. I suspect somebody from a Big 10 school perfected AI, and gave it a compulsion for college football.

Actually, I've been wondering about using some advanced statistical methods to predict the outcome of games. I'd guess that nothing would work ALL the time, but by doing some intelligent analysis, it might be possible to make some intelligent predictions. Prior to the NCG, I estimated the probability of a UF win as 60% - more than a 50-50 deal, but not so high as 70-30 in UF's favor. It would be interesting to see if something objective could be formulated that would provide reliable probabilities. As opposed to the chest-thumping posturing of homers ...

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