FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Sorry to my six readers for not posting this on Tuesday.  I experienced some technical difficulties, and than decided that it wasn't worth another three hours of my time to redo it.  I played Halo 2 instead.  Played like crap too.  Oh well.  I hope everyone had a terrific Thanksgiving.

(Long) Week in Review:

5-1 (11-6 overall)

The past ten days went VERY well for the Blazers.  It started last Wednesday at home against the Bulls, where basically everything went Portland's way.  They flew out to a 20 point first quarter lead and never looked back, routing the Bulls 116-74 for the largest Blazers win in nearly a decade.  Against smaller teams like the Bulls, the Blazers size really becomes a factor, and it was in this game.

Two days later the team traveled to Sacramento and it was more of the same.  Portland came out energized and ran the Kings out of their own building, 117-96.  The Blazers killed from downtown, shooting a sizzling 54% from three, and also outrebounded and out-assisted the Kings by considerable margins.

The following night was the only loss of the week, on the road to the Suns.  It shouldn't be too surprising because A) it was on the road, B) it was the second of a back to back, and C) Phoenix is simply a better team than Portland right now.  Shaq turned back the clock to the tune of 19 points and 17 rebounds, Oden was in foul trouble all day, and Phoenix just bullied the younger Blazers to a 102-92 loss.

On Monday the Blazers returned home to face the Kings again, whom they had defeated by 21 on the road just three days earlier.  The Blazers came out thinking the Kings would just roll over and die like they did before, and instead Sacramento came out spirited and determined to exact revenge.  If it wasn't for some very clutch play by Brandon Roy in the 4th quarter Portland would surely have lost, and still had to survive a John Salmons runner that went just long in the final seconds to hang on for a 91-90 victory.

Two days later Portland played host to the Miami Heat in a rematch of Oden's redebut.  In that game the Heat, and especially Dwyane Wade, gave Portland some real problems.  The sequel, as is usually the case, did not stack up to the original.  Portland roared out to a 37-17 first quarter lead and just barely hung on in a 106-68 squeaker.  The difference in this game was that Wade played like a mortal, partially due to some quality defense and partially because he was just a little off that night.  What makes this win even more impressive is that Portland did it while their star and only consistent player in Brandon Roy endured his worst game of the season (8 points on 2-11 shooting).

The Blazers closed their three game homestand yesterday against the New Orleans Hornets in a game I predicted them to lose.  The Hornets match up really well against Portland and Chris Paul came in to the game playing some of his best basketball.  So imagine my surprise when Portland not only won the game, but looked genuinely in control the whole game.  Chris Paul was limited to "only" 16-6-6 while Roy looked every bit the superstar, hanging 25 points, 10 assists, and 6 boards with James Posey on him.  All in all I would call this was the most satisfying win in what has been a very impressive season thus far.

Five Things I Liked:

1. Brandon Roy (My Blazers MVP of the Week):

With the exception of the blowout win over the Bulls, Roy played great in every game.  What's more, in that blowout win he didn't play at all in the 4th, and I am very confident that if it hadn't been such a rout he would have had his typical strong 4th quarter and approached 20 points again.  

Roy had his best game of the season yesterday against the Hornets and also nearly singehandedly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Kings on Monday.  He's been even better than last year, adding a more consistent jump shot and becomins more adept at finishing with his left hand.  Few players in the NBA get to the rim with the same ease as Roy.  He's the heart and soul of this team and they go as far as he takes them right now.

2. Steve Blake:

While Blake has cooled somewhat in the last two games (both sizeable wins that didn't really require his services), in the first four games of the past ten days he was really Portland's second best player behind Roy with averages of 16 points and five assists per game with only SEVEN total turnovers in that stretch.

On the season Blake is doing exactly what the team needs him to do: hit the open shot (42% from three) and don't make mistakes (3/1 ast/to ratio).  For a while there it actually looked like Sergio Rodriguez would have a legitimate argument to be the starter, but Blake reasserted his status as #1 at the 1.  Sergio is a solid PG and a worthy backup, but I'd really rather have Blake because he's more controlled and he is a much better shooter than Rodriguez.

3. Defense against opposing stars:

Every star except Shaq who played the Blazers during the past five game had lower than average numbers.  Steve Nash had 17 and 6, Amare Stoudamire had 17 and 9, Wade was really held in check with 12 points on 5-14 shooting, and Chris Paul looked ordinary with 16 points and 6 assists.

There are three factors that help the Blazers corral opposing stars: 1) They are a very long team that are tough to drive around and through, 2) there are some big trees waiting in the post in Oden, Przybilla, and Aldridge, and 3) on the pick and rolls that used to kill Portland, Lamarcus Aldridge is now capable of defending both the switch and recovering to defend the post.  A lot of the time Portland focuses so much on the star that other players are left open, such as Posey in the first Hornets game or Shaq against Phoenix, but opponent's stars have a very tough time against the Blazers.

4. Moving Oden to the starting lineup:

While Oden hasn't exactly been lighting it up (more on that later), I like coach McMillan putting the big guy back in the starting lineup.  For one, it's a move that was going to happen soon enough anyway, so they may as well get that transition period over with ASAP.  Second, Oden is advertised as part of a "Big Three" with Roy and Aldridge, so it's important for him to build some on-court chemistry with them.  Third, for as well as Przybilla has been playing, he still fits better in the second unit. 

He's barely outscoring Oden despite shooting over 80% from the floor (not a typo), so you can really expect his offensive production to drop as his field goal percentage returns to a human level. He's also in better running shape than Oden, which is important because the Blazers "White Unit" likes to run.  For the record, the "White Unit" was the name of the bench unit before Sergio and Rudy came aboard; it has nothing to do with skin color.

Joel may well be the best backup center in the NBA unless Marcus Camby or Chris Kaman moves to the bench, but Oden belongs in the starting unit and Przybilla belongs in the second unit.

5. Downtown shooting:

While I still believe Portland takes too many outside shots, it's hard to complain when they hit so many of them;  currently the Blazers are second in the NBA at 42% from three as a team.  Five Blazers are over 40% on the year: Blake, Channing Frye, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, and rookie Nicolas Batum.  Roy also hits around 38%, and even Aldridge, at 33%, can step out and hit the deep shot.  Among those in the rotation, only the two centers (who never shoot anything farther than a free throw) and Sergio Rodriguez shoot below 30% from deep.

Again, in order to become an elite team Portland will have to go inside more (which they have to a degree), but if you live and die by the three and shoot 42% from there, you will live more often that you will die.

Five Things I Didn't Like:

1. Rudy sticking to the perimeter:

Yes, I just finished commenting on how well the Blazers shoot from downtown.  And yes, Rudy is third amongst rookies at 44% from behind the arch.  But Rudy also has some great finishing skills and very good distributing ability, neither of which he can showcase running half circles on offense.

Perhaps most damaging was the Phoenix game, where Rudy frequently had holes to drive through and instead opted to jack up bombs.  He had his worst game in the NBA, shooting 1-9 and 1-8 from distance when he could have taken advantage of some soft defense.  So now the "he needs to stop shooting long jumpers and start taking it to the hole" label has shifted from Travis Outlaw to Rudy Fernandez.  Particularly maddening is that Rudy is 4th in the NBA at 94% from the line, but only takes 2.3 freebies a game.  If he drove to the bucket more often, he'd shoot free throws more often.

2. Lamarcus Aldridge's slump:

While it seems he has come out of his funk, Aldridge was having a Hell of a cold streak for far too long there.  His slump started when Oden returned, but I do not believe the two were related.  For one, Oden came off the bench and the two of them only shared about ten minutes of court time per game.  Also, Oden doesn't exactly dominate offensively or demand the ball, and most of Aldridge's misses were open jumpers anyway.

Whatever the cause, it was bad.  As Jason Quick at oregonlive.com notes, Aldridge has been pretty consistent since his 30 point coming out party against the Hawks in his rookie year.  From that point on Aldridge never went more than four games without posting either 20 points or hitting more than half his shots, but in his latest slump he went NINE games without either.

Before the start of his offensive downturn Aldridge was averaging 19.3 ppg and nearly 9 rpg, and by the time it ended he had dipped all the way down to 15.5 and 6.5.  The decline in rebounds is probably actually attributable to Oden, as Oden grabs over seven a game in only 20 minutes, but the scoring was what really hurt the Blazers.  Considering he's the team's best low post offensive option and second best scoring option overall, and that they played some pretty good opponents during the slump, Portland should feel lucky to have gone 6-3 in that stretch.

The good news is Aldridge has shot 7-10 and 8-13 in his past two games and seems to have his confidence back, so it looks like this rough stretch may be behind him.

3. Oden on offense:

What happened here?  After his initial redebut against Miami, Oden had 13.1 ppg over his next four outings.  Since then he's hit double figures only once.  I mean, nobody expects him to be Hakeem or Shaq right now, but 5.2 points per game in his last five is pretty unacceptable.  His defense looks just as good as before, and his rebounding is just as productive and to be honest, it isn't even that he's looked worse on offense.  If anything he's looked a little bit MORE confident in the post.

My explanation is that since so much of his offense is reliant on offensive rebounding, and Portland has been shooting so well, he has fewer chances to score.  That doesn't sum it up entirely, but he's getting probably two fewer up close chances a game.  The rest can be simply attributed to the fact that he's an unpolished rookie with few offensive skills outside of dunking.  

With the rest of the team playing so well on the offensive end his lack of production isn't really hurting the team, but at some point it will.  This move to the starting lineup will perhaps inspire him to assert himself more when he gets his chances on offense.  If nothing else, he's still a great defender and rebounder, and teaming him with Przybilla makes for one of the best center duos in the NBA.

4. Sergio Rodriguez shooting the ball:

Sergio has been a pleasant surprise thus far, leading the team in ast/to ratio and stepping up his game on defense.  However, it was also advertised that his shot improved and I'm not really seeing it.  He is the only Blazer besides little used Jerryd Bayless (what happened to that guy, by the way?) to shoot below 40%, sitting at a cozy 33%.  His only semi-reliable move is a jump-stop fadeaway from six feet.  His shot is so flat that anything further away is an adventure at best and a disaster at worst.  

What really sucks is that he is a good enough ball handler that he frequently gets to the rim with ease, but has so little scoring and finishing ability that he either dishes to a well-covered post or just weaves his way back out to the perimeter.  While I appreciate the fact that he's worked hard on his game and truly has earned his role as backup PG and his 15 mpg, if he wants to stay in Portland he will need to develop some sort of reliable offense.

5. Saying goodbye to Nic Batum:

It's breaking my heart to see this kid play so well and so enthusiastically.  He really is the best perimeter defender Portland has, and has hit double digit scoring each of the past two games.  You can also see that he loves to play the game.  Yet even with all that in mind, when Martell Webster returns next week there is almost no doubt that Batum will be the one who loses his minutes.  Nic wasn't supposed to do anything this year besides chill on the bench and maybe see some PT in the D-League, and instead he showed that on his best days he can do a pretty good Tayshaun Prince impression.

There's certainly a spot for Batum on this team in the future, but there is no way Travis Outlaw will see much reduction in playing time as he is the most consistent scoring option off the bench.  Webster won't be benched because he is a better offensive player and still a reliable defender, not to mention he just signed a four year, $20 million extension and needs the chance to earn his pay.  That sort of leaves Batum as the odd man out.

The silver lining here is that if Batum and Bayless both go down to the D-League, the Idaho Stampede would be one of the best teams in the minor leagues.

Also of Note:

Speaking of Webster, I do believe many of the Blazer faithful are a little too high on him right now.  Frequently cited is that he led the team in three pointers last year, but what nobody mentions is he shot a shade under 39% from downtown to get there, and just over 42% overall.  So while he needs to be respected as a shooter, it's not exactly like he's as assassin.

Rumor has it Webster worked like crazy over the summer to add distance and consistency to his shot, but he also hasn't played since Portland's first preseason game due to a stress fracture in his foot.  It's sadly very possible that much of his offseason progress has been lost.

Don't get me wrong, once he returns the Blazers will be better for it.  He's another big, strong defender and is a more reliable offensive threat than Batum could dream of being at the moment.  Webster will step right in to the starting unit upon his return and will contribute,  I just believe that a lot of Portland fans are overestimating exactly how much he will contribute, especially with a deeper team taking more of his minutes than last year.

Token Non-Blazer Thought:

I will say this about the Detroit Lions: they will be remembered.  Their current ineptitude combined with the difficulty of their closing schedule all but insures the NFL's first 0-16 season.  Which brings to mind an interesting question: what's more unlikely, a 16-0 season like the Patriots last year, or an 0-16 season like the Lions seem destined for?

Before these past two years, a completely undefeated season and a completely defeated season happened only once before and each was in a shorter 14 game season.  The Dolphins, fo course, went 14-0 and ultimately reached immortality with a 17-0 season.  Just four years later the Bucs did the exact opposite in their inaugural season, posting an 0-14 record and eventually extending their losing streak all the way to 26 before closing their second season on a two game win streak.

In my personal opinion it's more unlikely for a team to hit the 0-16 mark than the 16-0 mark for the simple reason that everyone in the NFL is really, really good.  Every team, yes even the Lions, has an abundance of talent that can win any given Sunday given the right circumstances.  It's more likely that a team has just the right combination of offense, defense, and coaching to go 16-0.  

Thoughts?

The (Short) Week Ahead:

Portland embarks on an extended five game Eastern Conference road trip starting this Sunday against Detroit.  Portland is a much weaker team on the road than at home and Detroit is a pretty good team.  There is also the fact that even if Portland does manage to control their best offensive player (Iverson), there are plenty of other ways the Detroit can beat you.  No matter what angle I look at this game from, I see Detroit winning.

Next up, and the only other game before I post again on Tuesday night, is at New York.  If Portland loses this game it will be a fluke.  New York, as you may have heard, is a mess.  They also lack size and Portland tends to beat up smaller Eastern Conference team, just ask Chicago and Miami.  I would be shocked if the Blazers dropped this game.

Also something to look forward to is on Tuesday night- I will be doing my quarterly report on the team, as they will have played their 19th game and I won't have a lot to write about.  I know it's exciting, but try to sleep well this weekend.

Parting Thought:

I really like how Nate McMillan has been juggling minutes thus far.  With so much talent it is difficult to choose what combinations work where, but Nate has done a good job of figuring things out thus far.  The only player who really has a place to complain is Jerryd Bayless, but Sergio simply outplayed him in the preseason and hasn't done anything to lose the backup PG spot yet. 

What's more, McMillan is keeping everyone rested.  Roy leads the team with 36 minutes a game, with Aldridge's 33 being the only other number higher than 30.  Outlaw gets 28, Rudy gets 26, Blake gets 28, and so on.  There was a lot of concern as to how the rotation would work, but McMillan seems to have figured it out for now.  It will get more difficult as Batum goes to the bench and Webster cuts in to Rudy's minutes and Outlaw's minutes, but I now have every faith he can keep all the plates spinning until GM Kevin Pritchard has decided who he wants to move and who he wants to keep.