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And now for the moment you've all been waiting for: my grades and evaluations of the Blazers after they've played roughly 1/4 of their games for the season (23.1% to be exact). This is the last chance I'll have for another week and I don't have a whole lot else to write about, so it seems like as good of a time as any.  First, a quick recap of the team's last two games:

Blazers @ Pistons:

As some of you may recall, I forecasted a Blazers loss here.  I forgot to take in to account that Detroit is not the same team it once was, and for all of Allen Iverson's greatness he is a difficult teammate to mesh with.  Portland more or less controlled this game from start to finish.  Greg Oden owned the inside with a career high 13 rebounds and 3 blocks, while chipping in 11 points, Lamarcus Aldridge continued his solid play with a season high 27 points while completely overmatching Rasheed Wallace, and Brandon was his usual self with 19 points, five rebounds, and four assists and no turnovers. 

As a team the Blazers once again shot a high percentage from three (7-17), controlled the ball (only 12 turnovers), and shut down the opponent's best player (Iverson: 9 points and 3 assists on 2-9 shooting).  It all added up to an impressive and convincing 96-85 victory.

Blazers @ Knicks:

This game was closer than it should have been, to be honest.  Portland usually dominates smaller opponents like the Knicks, and I figured the only way for New York to have a chance was force Portland to run.  I give the Knicks a lot of credit; they kept it close and looked commanding at times by playing a controlled game on offense and very scrappy defense.  Portland trailed at the end of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters with Chris Duhon keeping up his great play.  In the 4th, however, Portland's depth was the deciding factor. 

The Knicks have about a seven man rotation for the time being, and Portland rarely uses less than ten.  The Blazers opened the 4th with a 10-0 run keyed by rested reserves Rudy Fernandez and Joel Przybilla, and never really looked back.  Roy led the way with 23 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals.  Rudy led the 4th quarter charge with 12 in the final period and 18 for the game, and Przybilla had one of his best games of the year with 8 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 blocks (officially two but a clear stuff of David Lee wasn't counted for some reason). All said, Portland won a tough game 104-97.

And now, for the (drumroll please...):

Quarterly Report

13-6 overall (1st in NW Division, 2nd in Western Conference)

All told I couldn't have asked for a better start.  To date they've had 12 road games to 7 home games, with unquestionably the hardest opening schedule in the NBA.  In my blog at the start of the season I said "don't be surprised, or discouraged, if the Blazers go 8-15 in this tough opening stretch."  Instead the team would have to go a sub-par 2-2 to be 15-8. Considering the challenges this team faced at the start of the year (losing two starters to injury within the first five minutes, five of their first six opponents winning 50+ last year, Lamarcus Aldridge enduring the worst cold streak of his career), 13-6 is nothing short of amazing.

One could say the season was really kick-started by Roy's hero-idiot-hero combo against Houston where he buried a 33-footer at the horn to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat which was snatched from the jaws of victory.  At that point the Blazers were 1-3, and from the moment that shot went in to now the Blazers are 12-3.

Player Grades

Point Guard:

Steve Blake-

11.3 ppg, 4.2 apg, 1.6 rpg in 29.2 mpg

To this point in the season, Blake has done exactly what's been asked of him.  He's hit the open shot (43% from three) and avoided mistakes (3/1 ast/to ratio), he doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective, and he has hit 96% from the line.  His real weakness is defense, where he is definitely a liability.  He also is less effective running the fast break than his backup, but that works in the starting unit which runs a ball-control style offense.

I'd like to see Blake step it up defensively and be a more aggressive passer, but really he's a good fit in this starting lineup.  A lot of pundits call for him to be traded or replaced, but he may in all actuality be the best option if he can keep hitting his threes, controlling the ball, and being okay with Roy running the show on offense.

Grade: B (does what's asked and nothing else)

Sergio Rodriguez-

 3.6 ppg, 4.1 apg, 1.6 rpg in 15.2 mpg

Sergio has been a very pleasant surprise for Portland.  I expected him to be a scrub until the trading deadline, where he would be a throw in to balance out salaries in a trade.  Instead he's a very worthy backup to Blake.  His assist per minute ratio is almost double that of Blake (1 assists for every 3.7 minutes to 1 assist for every 7 minutes for Blake), he has upped his ast/to ratio from a year ago (3/1 compared to 2/1 last year), and he is certainly a superior defender to Blake.

For a while I thought Sergio should start, but in the Blazers starting unit you have to hit the open shot, and Sergio has only shot 32% for the year.  He also needs to run the show to be effective, which is perfect in the Blazers 2nd unit but not so much when Roy is playing.  If Sergio can become a reliable shooter and continue to limit his turnovers he will have a place in Portland.  For now he is the clear-cut #2 PG who gets crunch time minutes every few games, which is more than I think anyone expected.

Grade: B- (a competant backup that needs to learn how to shoot)

Jerryd Bayless-

1.3 ppg, 1.1 rpg, .7 apg in 6.1 mpg

When Sergio earned the backup job in the preseason it relegated the #11 overall draft pick to scrub status.  Bayless has only seen 43 total minutes this season, all in blowouts, while having 12 DNPCDs to his credit. In what little I've seen of him it looks like he's not comfortable with being a distibutor, but he also isn't confident in his shot. 

I'm sure he thought he would come in and contribute immediately and is pretty miffed to be on the bench all the time.  He's a firey competitor and will probably eventually crack the rotation, but barring trade I don't expect it this year.  With so much young talent someone is bound to be left out, and right now that someone is Bayless.

Grade: INC (his time will come)

Shooting Guard:

Brandon Roy-

21.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 5.3 apg in 36.3 mpg

Roy is the unquestioned leader and best player on the team.  Since he went to 4 years of college, I kinda thought he platued last year when he made the All-Star team.  As usual, I was wrong.  Despite playing fewer minutes he's increased his scoring by 2 ppg, his free throws have gone up by 10%, and his threes have gone from 34% to 38%.  He also is one of the better clutch players in the game now with three game winner to date and countless other huge 4th quarter plays.  He leads the team in assists, is a reliable defender, and demands the ball when the Blazers need to score.

If I had a complaint about Roy I guess it would be that he seems to take a while to heat up in every game, but I'd rather have my players hot at the end than in the beginning.  Bottom line, if Roy isn't an All-Star this year there is no such thing as an All-Star.

Grade: A (the best player on one of the better teams in the NBA)

Rudy Fernandez-

11.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2 apg in 25.9 mpg

Rudy headlines a very impressive second unit for the Blazers and is among the early candidates for both rookie of the year and 6th man of the year.  His greatest strength thus far has been his three point shooting, currently hitting 47% from downtown.  He also is over 94% from the free throw line and has a very quick release on his jumper.  Off the ball he's a devil to defend, constantly moving and cutting to get open.  Also, his chemistry with fellow Spaniard Rodriguez is that of ten year veterans; at least twice a game these two hook up for big plays.

All that being said, I'm pretty disappointed that Rudy has been so one-dimensional.  Though he posses both strong dribbling skills and great distribution ability, he usually just shoots long bombs or catches lobs.  That works sometimes, but he could be so much better if he'd drive to the rim (a problem plaguing many Blazers).  He is also maddeningly inconsistent, often following 18 point outings with a 2-8 stinker.  I would imagine that if he got inside when his outside shot wasn't falling he'd be more consistently valuable.

Ultimately, Rudy is one of the better players on this team and is still a rookie with a very bright future.

Grade: B (a great shooter that needs to diversify his game)

Small Forward:

Nicolas Batum-

6.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.6 apg in 16.8 mpg

Batum has been without question the biggest surprise for the Blazers.  After a dismal summer league he seemed destined for the D-league, he turned it around with a solid preseason and eventually worked his way into the starting lineup. He usually only plays the 1st and 3rd quarters before yielding to Rudy or Travis Outlaw, but in his time on the floor he makes an impact.

His contribution isn't usually seen in the box score so much, but he's unquestionably the best perimeter defender on the team already despite being just 19 years old.  How many 19 year old rookies are NBA ready on defense?  His offense is sporadic at best and ugly at worst, but it's his defense and hustle that makes him another great find for GM Kevin Pritchard.

When Martell Webster returns from injury at some point in the next week it will likely be Batum that loses most of his minutes, but it's widely expected that Portland will make some sort of trade in the next few months that will clear up a clogged SF position and Batum will get his floor time back.

Grade: C+ (waaaay better than expected)

Travis Outlaw-

 11.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.5 apg in 27.7 mpg

Outlaw was on my Sh1t List at the start of the season.  Too often last year he A) took bad shots on offense and B) forgot to play defense.  He still has his bad offensive choices and defensive lapses, but it's clear he's put effort in to both areas along with becoming stronger on the boards.  Outlaw is the most consistent scoring option off the bench and has become deadly from three point range, especially along the sidelines (50% from three, up from 39% a year ago). 

Outlaw still frequently takes his "nonono...YES!!" shots that consist of one dribble and a pull up against an inferior defender, and he's only shooting 42% from the field so far.  He MUST learn to take it inside and use his size and leaping ability to his advantage.  Often coach Nate McMillan uses Outlaw as a backup PF, and Outlaw should be able to drive around a lot of PFs with ease but still opts to pull up over them.  I also fully expect Outlaw to be traded at some point unless Webster is a big disappointment coming back from injury.  Still, I'll take his services while they are available.

Grade:  B- (still an offensive threat, but could be so much more)

Power Forward:

Lamarcus Aldridge-

15.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg in 33.3 mpg

If there's been a disappointment to date with the Blazers, it's been Aldridge.  Many figured he was poised to break out this year, but it's been up and down thus far.  He started out hot, posting 19 and 8 through the Blazers first seven games, but then went through a hellacious nine game slump in which he average 11 and 5.  He's recovered nicely in his past four games, but his averages are still lower than one would hope for.

Aldridge has done a nice job of getting down low, which was a problem for him last year.  In fact, it's safe to say he's Portland best low-post scoring option.  He's also greatly improved on defense and has a nice pick and pop game with Brandon Roy.  The problem with his game seems to be that when his outside shot isn't falling, nothing is falling.  What should be happening when his long jumper isn't working is he should establish himself down low more, but instead he takes himself out of the game mentally.

Bottom line, despite the fact that Aldridge is the #2 option in the starting unit, he isn't doing what he should be right now.

Grade: C (has taken a significant step back from last year, but is regaining form)

Channing Frye-

5.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg in 15.0 mpg

Rounding out a PF unit that hasn't lived up to expectations in Frye.  While Aldridge looks like he has turned things around and added elements to his game, Frye has just added distance to his.  Frye worked long and hard over the summer to add a three point shot to his game (38.5% from three this season), which is nice, but I would have liked it better if he focused on rebounding, post offense, and interior defense.  You know, power forward things.  He's far too soft and shoots far too many bad jumpers.  What's more, with Outlaw and Rudy in the second unit, there are enough jump shooters.  Frye needs to be a low post option for the second unit, because right now it doesn't have one.

I'd expect Frye to be one of the pieces moved whenever trading time comes to Portland.  In the meantime, when Webster comes back I wouldn't be surprised if Outlaw played more power forward off the bench to allow Batum to continue to play, and if this happens Frye will see fewer and fewer minutes.

Frye is well liked in Portland, but well liked doesn't win playoff games.  Portland needs a real power forward and Frye isn't fitting the mold.

Grade: D (he's good, but not a good fit)

Ike Diogu-

1 ppg, .4 rpg in 6.1 mpg

Diogu has actually looked decent in the little floor time he's had.  He's a real PF, getting down and dirty, grabbing boards, and finishing close to the rim.  He's likely not going to crack the rotation but is a nice piece to have in reserve should injury or foul trouble hit.  

Diogu has no real shot to speak of and is a sub-par defender; he just plays on grit and determination.  That won't earn him a lot of minutes, but it earns my respect, which is almost as important...right?

Grade: C+ (as far as scrubs go, he's pretty good)

Center:

Greg Oden-

7.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.7 bpg in 21.3 mpg

I really don't know what to think about Oden.  On one hand, his per-minute averages are really good (14.3 and 14.3 per 40 minutes), his defensive presence is undeniable, and on offense he demands frequent double teams out of which he is a decent passer.  On the other hand  he fumbles easy entry passes, looks lost on pick-and-roll defense, and has little finishing ability beyond a dunk.  What is for certain is that he will at least be a defensive force and rebounding demon.  What isn't for certain is if his offense will ever catch up.  Perhaps we are looking at a 7'1" Alonzo Mourning/Dikembe Mutombo hybrid.

Greg's biggest issue is he lets his emotion control his game.  When he's feeling great he plays great, like in his 22 point, 10 rebound performance against the Warriors or his 11 point, 13 rebound, 3 block game against the Pistons.  When he feels off he plays off, like his 5 point, 1 rebound game against Shaq and the Suns or his 2 point, 7 board game just last night against the undersized and undermanned Knicks.

His averages will go up as his minutes go up and it isn't a stretch to imagine 12-10-2 for this season, and he's also looked fine since returning from a sprained foot.  I don't have major concerns at this point, he just isn't very developed yet.

Grade: C+ (needs to be more confident and consistent, but as a raw talent is very impressive)

Joel Przybilla-

6.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.4 bpg in 23.9 mpg

Joel may in fact be the most indispensible Blazer right now outside of Roy.  He's having his best year as a pro, and his fine play takes all the pressure of Oden and allows the rookie to develop slowly rather than be thrust into the spotlight.  Przybilla, along with having one of the toughest names to spell in pro sports, is among the better interior defenders and rebounder in the NBA today and is having his best offensive year ever.  At one point he hit 23 of 24 field goals and is at a ridiculous 82% from the floor so far, missing 11 shots TOTAL on the season despite taking over 60.

His weakness still is his offense, where you can expect his value to drop as his field goal percentage averages out.  Despite being a more seasoned pro, he has no offensive fundamentals and can't post up to save his life.  Oden, for all his offensive shortcomings, is already better in every scoring facet than Joel.  But that's it.  That's his only weakness.

Grade: B+ (great defender and rebounder who fits perfectly with this team)

Five Team Strengths

1. Depth- I'm impressed with how well McMillan has juggled the rotation.  It sure won't get easier when Webster returns, but it also means the team gets even deeper.  Never was their strength as a deep team more evident than against a shorthanded Knicks team.  As New York grew more and more fatigued Portland was able to gain control with fresh legs and outscored the Knicks 33-22 in the 4th quarter to come back and win on the road.

Portland had a reliable backup at every position, and most of them can be counted on in crunch time.  For example, last night against the Knicks the 4th quarter lineup was Sergio, Rudy, Roy, Aldridge, and Przybilla (3 bench players, two starters.  Also, three white guys!).  The depth on the bench also allows for versatility in lineups.  Against smaller teams the Sergio-Rudy-Roy-Outlaw-Aldridge combo works wonders.  Against bigger teams it's Blake-Roy-Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden.  And so on.

Another great things about going ten deep is how well minutes can be spread.  Roy leads the team with only 36 minutes a game, Aldridge is second with 33, and nobody else has more than 29.  That means a lot of fresh legs, not only at the end of games but at the end of the season.

2. Size- Not many teams are bigger from point to center than the Blazers.  Roy can post up many opposing shooting guards, Aldridge shoots over many opposing power forwards, and the 7'1" center combo of Oden and Przybilla is simply a beast to handle.  Smaller teams like the Knicks, the Bulls, and the Heat were simply owned the inside in double-digit losses, and all the length also makes Portland one of the better defensive teams since Oden's return. 

Their size also helps their rebounding, for though they are poor at defensive rebounding they are fourth in the NBA in offensive rebounding and also give up the fewest rebounds a game to their opponents.

3. Discipline- It's not common that a young, athletic team can be reigned in but Nate McMillan has done the job to a "T".  Portland is in fact last in the NBA in possessions per game, which isn't a bad thing since they rarely give possessions away (4th fewest turnovers in the NBA).  They may be the 2nd youngest team in the NBA but they play like a team of veterans.

4. Home Court- The Rose Garden is a place of intimidation once again.  Not only is Portland undefeated at home (the Cavs are the only other team), they win by an average of 17 points a game.  Portland is also pretty good on the road now with a 6-6 record, but nobody wants to travel to play Portland anymore.  The Rose Garden has also sold out in 30 consecutive games dating back to last year, with nothing but sellouts looming on the horizon.

I remember when I was a kid it was almost impossible to get Blazer tickets.  Then, when I moved back to Portland for college they couldn't give them away.  Now once again the only way to get them is stubhub.com.  It's good to see Rip City return.

5. Deep Shooting- As a team Portland shoots 41% from downtown, good for 2nd in the NBA.  Four Blazers are currently over 40% from three (Blake, Outlaw, Rudy, and Batum), with another three above 35% (Frye, Roy, and Sergio).  Even Aldridge can step out and hit it.  Only Oden and Joel, who can't shoot from ten feet, are poor shooters.  Though improving inside, Portland is a jump shooting team, so it's a good thing for them they are amongst the best in the league at jump shooting.

Five Team Weaknesses:

1. Power Forward Play- While Aldridge is getting better, as a unit the fours are not doing well.  None of them (Aldridge, Frye, and sometimes Outlaw) are a real threat on the glass and only Aldridge is passable on post defense, and even then just barely.  Portland needs someone of the Paul Millsap-Jason Maxiell mold, a real power forward, to compliment Aldridge.  For now the dirty work falls largely on Przybilla and Oden while the "finesse" (i.e. "soft") jobs go to Frye and Adridge.

2. Post Offense in General- Again, Aldridge is a slight exception here. Frye can't score with his back to the basket, Outlaw can't, Przybilla can't, and Oden can't yet. Aldridge has a couple of nice moves ( a spin-hook and a turnaround fadeaway), but he still drifts outside more often than he should, and when that shot doesn't fall he doesn't try as hard inside.  A lack of post offense would be okay except that another weakness is...

3. Guard Penetration- With the exception of Brandon Roy, who gets to the paint with frequent ease, nobody who handles the ball gets inside with any sort of reliability.  Rodriguez can from time to time, but he's such a poor finisher that it doesn't do a lot of good once he gets in there and he usually brings it right back out.  Rudy, Outlaw, Blake, and Batum all prefer to stand and wait for the ball to come to them, then take a dribble or two and fire.  That's okay for Blake and Batum, who are best served as spot-up shooters.  It isn't okay for Outlaw and Rudy, who have the skillset to drive and finish or get fouled. 

This all adds up to poor scoring in the paint, forcing Portland to live and die by the jumpshot.  They've started hot, but they need to score inside in order to become a contender.

4. Defensive Rebounding- Honestly, this is a surprising weakness, but Portland is dead last in the NBA in defensive rebounding.  With such a big team you'd expect more rebounds, but for some reason they just aren't getting there.  The center combo of Oden and Przybilla rebounds really well, and Roy is a good rebounder for a shooting guard, but beyond them there isn't anyone who asserts themselves on the glass.  Aldridge did at the start of the year but has slacked off some, and Outlaw goes after it from time to time.  I don't anticipate this weakness lasting, and Portland CAN rebound because they are 4th in offensive rebounding.  I think that once Aldridge recovers from his slump a little more Portland will rise in the rebounding rankings again.

5. Forcing turnovers- This is nitpicky, but hey, the team's 13-6 and there aren't a whole lot of things they are doing wrong.  Though Portland plays solid man-up defense, they don't force a lot of turnovers, currently standing 22nd in the NBA.  Part of the reason Portland doesn't force a lot of turnovers is that they don't gamble a lot due to very solid defensive discipline.  Another reason is that Portland's controlled tempo limits the number of possessions for both teams and thus there are fewer chances to force turnovers.  But another reason is that outside of Batum, Portland lacks a solid perimeter defender.  They play good team defense, but few of them can do it alone.  Again, most young players are more NBA ready on offense than on defense, and this "problem" really isn't that big of an issue.

Overall Team Grade

The team is still learning, growing, and adjusting.  It has its flaws.  And yet they keep on winning.  They beat the opponents they are supposed to beat and the also beat about half of the teams that have been labeled better than them.  This team is a joy to watch and I can only imagine what they will be like once they've matured.

A-

Revised Predictions

- Brandon Roy won't be voted by fans to play in the All-Star game but the coaches will tab him as the Blazers only participant

- Kevin Pritchard will be the Exec of the Year, and Nate will be in the running for Coach of the Year

- Oden, Rudy, and Batum will all make the rookie-sophomore game

- Oden will have at least one 20 and 20 game by the All-Star Break

- The steady play of Batum will force KP to trade either Frye or Outlaw before the deadline

- With the schedule getting easier for the next couple of months, Portland will remain a top four team in the West until at least February

Revised Final Record Prediction

52-30, 5th seed in the West.  I won't call for any playoff series wins until Portland beats a good West team away from the Rose Garden.