FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Well, since my quarterly report the Blazers have had statistically their worst week since the first week of the season. The reason I am not upset is that it is still a good week.  What's more, the Blazers are nearly done with the most difficult part of their schedule already and still have so much room to improve despite their success that it's easy to get ahead of myself.  I shall do my best to remain objective and would appreciate some reader feedback if I become too much of a homer.

Week in Review:

 2-2 (15-8 overall)

The week started well enough.  On the third game of a five game road trip Portland had a date in Washington DC with the Wizards.  As games go, this one was blandly amusing.  It was textbook.  Oden had one of his scheduled good games (more on that later) with 13 and 10, Roy was his typical self, and a total of five Blazers hit double digits.  Expect a lot of games like this one this season, as the Blazers won a close but not really contested game 98-92.

The next game was a measuring stick game in Boston, the 4th of a five game trip.  Early on Portland held their own, leading 36-35 with about six minutes left in the 2nd.  They would not score again until four minutes elapsed in the 3rd and Boston up 56-36.  That was pretty much that.  Rather than being depressed with the Blazers offensive ineptidude, I was downright amazed at how well the Celtics played defense.  Portland literally had no open looks in that cold stretch.  Celtics won going away, 93-78.

The last game of the road trip had huge potential as a letdown.  The Blazers were tired and the Raptors were rested and ready.  Lucky for Portland, Oden had one of his prescribed good games, Steve Blake was hot, and Aldridge continued his recent good play.  It was back and forth throughout and the Raptors looked poised for a big win up two with ten seconds to go, but Blake nailed a three from the top of the arch with six seconds left and Portland walked away with a 98-97 win.

The Blazers returned home last night to play the Magic in the first showdown between Dwight Howard and Greg Oden.  Sadly, Oden was scheduled to have a bad day.  However, Howard also wasn't as effective as he's been of late either.  Overall this was a thrilling game, back and forth the whole way.  Orlando was on fire from downtown early, at one point hitting 7 of 10 from deep.  Portland responded with two of the best showings of the season from Roy (30 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists) and Aldridge (25 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks) and held a 108-100 lead with 2:30 to play.  However, toward the end the Magic doubled Roy as soon as he touched the ball, nobody else could score, and Hedo Turkaglu banked in an admittedly lucky three right at the end, giving Orlando a 109-108 win and handing Portland its first home loss.

Five Things I Liked:

1. Brandon Roy:

Always and forever, I will like Brandon Roy.  For the week Roy posted 19.8 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists a game, and that includes 12-3-2 in 28 miserable minutes against Boston.  He wasn't the guy making the last minute shots like he did earlier in the year, but he was the focus of opposing defenses so much that his teammates were open in the end.  Against Washington and Toronto the other guys hit their shots, against Orlando they didn't.  More often than not Rudy, Blake, and Aldridge will hit their looks.

Roy is quite simply the best player in a Blazer uniform since Clyde Drexler was traded to Houston.  He's individually better than any player from the 1999-2000 team that was thisclose to the Finals, he's certainly far greater than anyone else to come through in the past five years.  I will in fact be bold enough to say that if the Blazers win a title or two in his career, he plays the majority of his career in Portland, and he keeps this same production, he will be the greatest Blazer in history.

2. The Revival of Lamarcus Aldridge:

I'm assuming that Aldridge has been reading my blog, because he's clearly listened to my criticism and has responded well.  At the start of the year he was touted as one of the "Big Three" with Roy and Oden.  To date it's more been the Brandon Roy show featuring Lamarcus Aldridge and the Supporting Cast, but Aldridge has stepped up lately after a bit of a cold streak.  For the week Aldridge posted 18.5 and 7 while being the best defender in the 4th quarter. 

Partially to continue to motivate him, and partially because he is the biggest reason they beat Raptors and were competitive with the Magic, LA has earned his second Blazers MVP of the Week.  Here's hoping he keeps up the good work, because when he does he is a fantastic 1B scoring option to Roy's 1A.

3. Steveo Rodblakez:

The PG duo of Sergio Rodriguez and Steve Blake compliment each other very well in nearly every aspect.  Both can knock down the open 3 and make good decisions with the ball.  Blake meshes well with the 1st team because he doesn't need the ball in his hands and Roy does most of the ball handling, and in the second unit Sergio has the role of creator without having to shoot very often (a good thing, because if he's not open he won't hit it).  What's more, when one is cold the other is usually hot.  Thus it's really best to view the two of them as a duo. 

For the week Steveo Rodblakez averaged 17. 5 points, 8.8 assists, and 2.5 turnovers a game while shooting 40% from 3.  The two of them only had ten TOTAL turnovers in the four games, which is remarkable for a PG duo.  They don't win a lot of games for Portland, but they won't lose a lot of them either.

4. Joel Przybilla's post defense:

While Joel's rebounding (8 per gam) and good shooting (still over 81%) is notable, his interior defense is where he really helps the Blazers.  He "held" Dwight Howard to 14 and 7 while Oden struggled with foul trouble with Howard coming off of consecutive 20-20 games.  At many times this season he and Oden have been much like Steveo in that when one has an off game the other picks up the slack, but Joel has been much more consistent than the rookie, which is what you would expect.

Przybilla has been much smarter with his defense than in year's past, when he would goaltend as often as he would block.  He's much more patient now and knows when to jump for rejection.  He also knows when to NOT try to block and just hold his ground, which he did with great effectiveness against Howard. 

5. The Whole Team on the Road:

Last year the Blazers were a very impressive 28-13 at home, but were the exact opposite on the road.  Literally.  They posted a mirror image 13-28 record away from the Rose Garden, which is a mark of a young team.  To start this season Portland has played more road games than any other team, more total games than any other team, and the fewest home games in the league.  

On their most recent East Coast swing Portland went a respectable 4-1, with the only loss coming to the Celtics.  Overall the Blazers are tied for the NBA lead with 8 road wins, sitting 8-7 overall.  Now, many teams have a better record on the road thus far, but the fact that Portland has winning record on the road in December for the first time since 2002 is worth admiring. Also, on their two extended five game road trips they've gone a combined 7-3.  If the road isn't a weakness for this team anymore, they are running out of weaknesses.

Five Things I Didn't Like:

1. Channing Frye:

Frye clearly also reads this blog, but I'm afraid my remarks have discouraged him rather than lighting a fire under him like they did with Lamarcus.  For the week Channing had a remarkable stat line of seven TOTAL points, zero rebounds (as in...he didn't grab any missed shots at all despite being 6'11"), and his first DNPCP of the season.

Against Boston he keyed the Celtics run that put the game away early.  First, with Portland up 36-35, he had an open 17 foot look (his favorite), jumped to shoot it and decided not to, so he passed on the way down to a wide-open Celtic defender.  Frye then hustled down the court just in time to foul as Boston layed it in for a three point play.  The next possesion he traveled.  Then he got burned by the lighting-quick Glen Davis for a layup.  Finally, he capped the worst minute of basketball ever by shooting a contested 18 footer with about 17 on the shot clock and hitting nothing but...nothing. Boston went down and hit a three, and in the first 1:18 that Frye was on the floor he nearly singlehandedly took the Blazers from a point up to seven down.

Now he seems to be out of the rotation, with Travis Outlaw taking a lot of the backup PF minutes in small second unit.  Frye seems to be all but gone from Portland.

2. Fickle Fans:

Wow...how high are expectations in Portland this year?  The team is 15-8 and much farther along than expected, but whenever I look at Blazer forums I see at least two "bench Steve Blake" comments (by the way, I am officiall on the Steve Blake bandwagon.  I believe he is a great fit in this starting unit for reasons I've said before, and I completely hopped aboard when he proved he could be clutch in Toronto.  It's lonely on here.  Anyone care to join me?) or a "Nate isn't the coach to takeus to the next level" or "Trade Outlaw" (okay, I'm guilty of that one).  Win or lose, Portland fans seem to be among the most negative in the NBA.  It isn't even criticism, it's open disdain for some players and coaches.

I think part of the problem is a lot of them expected the Blazers to be a 60+ win team this year, so when the slightest thing goes wrong they want changes.  The fact of the matter is Portland is still young, and even with their better-than-expected start their cap for wins is probably around 50.  The fans need to enjoy this team, not tear it apart.

3. Movement on D:

This applies to both the transition and the halfcourt game.  Against the Celtics, Portland got beat time and time again downcourt and that wasn't the first game this season that happened.  More often than not it's bigs running past Oden, Aldridge, and Przybilla to get easy baskets and it's simply due to laziness by the Portland posts.  It's not that hard to get in position in transition.  Just jog a little faster!

The biggest reason Portland lost against the Magic was that they allowed countless open threes, resulting in Orlando shooting 14-27 overall from deep, including three in the final two minutes.  Granted, the last one was very well defended, but for most there wasn't a Blazer with six feet of the shooter.  They were too focused on Howard, but this happens against other teams as well.  It's just a young team that is still learning how to play team defense and an area that should improve simply with time.

4. Inconsistency:

Brandon Roy is the only guy that can be counted on to show up in every game.  He's only had two bad outings thus far; one in a blowout win and one in a blowout loss.  Beyond him there is no promise as to ANYONE bringing their A game.  Aldridge is becoming more reliable, but the up-and-down play from guys like Sergio, Rudy, Outlaw, and Oden make it very difficult to know what to expect from night to night. 

Most quality NBA teams have at least two or three guys they can count on night in and night out, even if they aren't stars.  Steady, heady guys who will always bring the same thing.  Those are the guys you can look to to steady wild play or turn around a cold streak every time.  Portland only has one of those guys.  Somebody of the Rudy-Outlaw-Blake group NEEDS to become more consistent for Portland to be able to bring it night in and night out and avoid the eggs that have been layed in Boston, LA, and Golden State.

5. Martell's foot:

Webster made his triumphant return on Sunday against the Raptors.  His line?  Five minutes, one missed shot, and one reinjured foot.  Now he's expected to be out another month.  What really sucks is he is expected to be one of those guys that can bring the same game night in and night out, but right now he isn't able to do anything.

I wonder A) if he was rushed back from the injury and B) if so, why?  It's not like the team was really suffering without him, especially with continued decent minutes from Nicolas Batum and Roy showing more promise at the 3 than I expected.  It didn't seem like he was ready to play, and I don't think there is any excuse for any Blazer to play if they aren't 100% healthy because this team is deep enough to cover for an injured player for a while.

Also of Note:

It seems to me that Oden is either reliably inconsistent, or he and Joel Przybilla flip a coin and decide who will try hard that game.  What I've finally settled on is he is on a schedule sort of like Shaq's.  However, instead of literally taking games off like Shaq does, Oden just doesn't really play every other game but still appears on the court.

Against the undersized Knicks to end last week he was very off with 2 points and 7 boards.  He followed it up with 13 and 10 against the Wizards, then flopped again with 5 points and 6 boards in Boston.  In Toronto the switch was flipped to "on" with 10 points, 10 boards, and 3 blocks, then it was turned off and unplugged against Orlando with 2 points and 1 rebound in only 11 minutes.

The good news is he has expanded his offensive game some and is more comfortable with his back to the basket.  The bad news is he struggles against the better centers in the game offensively and surprisingly on defense as well.  He still made Howard work to get his points, but Howard DID get his points.  

I know he's still young, and he does have 7 double doubles in 14 games while playing only about 20 minutes a night.  But A) why does he only get 20 minutes a night when he usually doesn't struggle too badly with fouls and B) why can't he post back-to-back solid outings?

Token Non-Blazer Thought:

Where the Hell has Lebron James been in the 4th quarter this season?  Oh yeah, the bench because his team is up 25.  Last night's blowout of the Bucks was the Cavs ninth straight win of 12+ points, the longest such streak in history.  They are still undefeated at home and with the Lakers losing to the Kings it is safe to say the Cavs are 2nd only to the Celtics right now.  Suddenly the Cavs, though completely centered on James still, aren't ONLY about Lebron anymore no matter what Sportscenter would have you believe.

The addition of Mo Williams has a lot to do with it, though it's not so much what Mo has done (15 points and 4 assists a game) as the type of offense he allows them to run.  No longer do the Cavs have to run James iso after James iso.  There are enough scorers in the starting lineup (James, Williams, West, Ilgauskas) and enough firepower on the bench (Szczerbiak, Gibson) that not only can Lebron rely on his teammates to hit the shots he passes to them, but the team can go whole possessions without him and still be effective offensively.  

Obviously they can't play this well for an entire season,  but they are legitimate early title contenders.  What's more, if they ARE title contenders it is very likely that the Knicks will have to chase Chris Bosh because Lebron would prefer to stay put if the Cavs give him a real chance to win a title.

The Week Ahead:

This week looks to be much easier than the last one, with the only big test coming right away.  Portland travels to Utah to face the Jazz, who already beat the Blazers 103-96 (though that game really wasn't an accurate measure of either team as the Jazz were missing Deron Williams and Portland was sans Oden).  The Northwest looks to be a threeway dogfight all year long between Portland, Utah, and Denver so every game between them counts.  The good news is Oden is scheduled to have a good outing and Mehmet Okur isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse.  The bad news is the Jazz are damn near impossible to beat at home.  I say this is a loss for Portland and *gasp* a two game losing streak!

Next up is the Clippers in Portland on Friday.  This IS a back-to-back for Portland, but the Clippers are pretty inept and Portland wants will be wanting to prove they are still a force at home.  The Clips have nobody that can guard Roy or Aldridge, unless they want Zach Randolph to be on Oden as Greg is slated to have a bad game, which puts Camby on Aldridge.  LAC will have to play out of their minds to have a chance, and I don't see that happening.  Portland should win this and it may not be close.

The week wraps the following Tuesday at home against the Kings, whom Portland has already beaten twice.  Portland has their first extended rest in a long time before this game (a full three days off to lick their wounds), though the Kings did play to a spirited one point loss last time they came to Portland.  Given that the Kings are a dangerous team that just blew out the West-best Lakers I can't confidently call a Portland win, but if the Blazers execute and Greg has his prescribed effective perfomance it shouldn't be too big of a challenge.

Parting Thought:

After Portland plays Utah on Thursday they finally are more or less done with their hellacious start.  Yes, the Christmas schedule is tough, but many of those games are at home.  As I previously mentioned, Portland has played 15 of their 23 games on the road.  After the Utah game the Blazers have 10 of their next 12 in Portland, where they are 35-14 in their last 49 games dating to last year.

In other words, as good as Portland's start has been it is very possible for them to be even better.  The dog days of January and February will wear on them, but by mid-January they could very realistically be 28-12 or so and amongst the best teams in the NBA, while being in a strong enough position to endure an extended cold streak or two and still be in solid playoff position.

The hardest part of the schedule is already over, Portland is 15-8 and tied for first in the Northwest Division, and very clearly isn't anywhere near it's ceiling.  My friends, it is a very good time to be a Blazers fan.