Beautiful Day for Football
  • 12:19 AM ET  12.11
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Michigan State's Javon Ringer and Georgia's Knowshon Moreno are both finalists for the Doak Walker "best college running back" award. So, with some excitement about two of the game's biggest running threats set to play one another in the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 1st., what is the big statistic that tells you the most about this game?

How about this: Georgia's rushing offense is ranked just 54th in the nation and Michigan State's is 66th. Both players are the main ball carriers on teams that -- statistically speaking -- have rather mediocre running attacks. Appearances and statistics, it seems, are deceiving.

The real big difference between these teams is trajectory. Georgia is coming off of a very strong 2007, a BCS bowl win, returned 17 starters from last year, and was ranked the pre-season No. 1 in both major polls. The debated expectations for Georgia at the start of the season centered on whether Florida had a chance to upend their chase to the SEC title, not whether in-state rival Georgia Tech (pre-season No. 50 in the Coaches poll) would be the team to hand them their third loss on the regular season's final weekend.

By contrast, Michigan State owns three losses that every sane person would have predicted, a couple of wins that are more than pleasant surprises, and not a single unexpected loss. A reasonable regular season for Michigan State, given last year's graduations and a tougher schedule, would have been another 7-5 mark followed by another mediocre pre-January bowl appearance. Even adjusting for the (entirely expected) season-ending blowout by Penn State, nine wins is evidence of a team playing well above expectations.

The Spartans lost big to their conference powerhouses (Penn State and Ohio State) and Georgia lost big to theirs (Florida and Alabama.) Both teams played and lost to one decent out-of-conference opponent (Georgia Tech for Georgia and Cal for MSU.) Each finished finished as the third best team in their conference.

Other numbers show the trend of two teams arriving in the same place from different directions. Georgia finishes the regular season ranked 21st in the nation for total offense and 28th for total defense, while the Spartans are respectively 66th and 62nd. The component parts that make up those big numbers tell the same story. One team doesn't look good on paper but manages to win games it should not. The other looks like it should be world beaters, yet found ways to lose a game or two that it should have won.

Georgia is not a threat like Penn State, nor Ohio State. More like Iowa earlier this year, another team with a very good running back, this sets up as a game where Michigan State has a chance to beat what is probably a better group of players because they perform better as a team than the other guys do.

The Spartans are thrilled to be in Orlando on New Year's Day. Getting there shows that they can attain their goals and that they still have yet one more chance to exceed expectations. For Georgia, Orlando is evidence that they failed to capitalize on nearly all of their preseason goals. However much the Bulldogs may say to the contrary, winning the Capital One Bowl will not mean nearly as much to them as it does to the guys on the other side of the field. Leaving aside the stats, this is probably what decides the game.
December 11, 2008  03:18 AM ET

These are both teams tough to characterize. You did a good job. Only thing I might disagree with is that Cal was far from a lock against MSU who can blame their own mistakes as much as Cal's performance for the loss. Most pople had MSU in their top 5. A few had them as high as 3. Their 3rd place finish is impressive but not a shock.

Nice work as always. I will miss your blogs in the off season.

December 12, 2008  03:08 AM ET

Well, thanks PI, but where were you seeing MSU in the Big 10's top 5, let alone top 3, for the pre-season.

Coaches preseason national poll had Ohio State #3, Wisconsin #12, Illinois #19, Penn State #22, Michigan #24 (yes, very funny), and Michigan State well outside the top 25 with just 9 total votes.

AP poll was the same order, though slightly different national rankings, with MSU outside the top 25 and getting 21 total votes (behind Michigan's 36.)

The ESPN preseason power poll had them fifth, again outside the top 25, just ahead of Michigan.

Phil Steele had them in a three-way tie for seventh, behind Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Illinois. WAYYYYY down the national rankings and well outside the top 25

The Sporting news got the closest to seeding MSU properly, but seriously messed up most of the others:

#2 Ohio State
#10 Illinois
#14 Wisconsin
#18 Michigan
#27 Michigan State
#29 Penn State

So... as I said, fifth in the conference was the most GENEROUS spotting of the major analysts, and more or less conforms to about eight wins. Six or seventh in the conference, an equally typical projection, fits with seven regular season wins, and maybe even six.

Nine wins, and still shooting for ten, sitting third and with a top-20 ranking, was on no major radar screen that I can find.

December 12, 2008  02:23 PM ET

UGA had a disappointing season, but they are no Iowa. There offense is extremely explosive if they get in a rhythm. It isn't really a running team though they use the PA pass to set everything up.
Despite some redzone woes( due to a young OL) I'd rate them as one of the top 10 offenses in the SEC over this decade. That just shows how much the injuries hurt the D, which was UGa's weakest this decade by far.

December 12, 2008  04:00 PM ET
QUOTE(#2):

Well, thanks PI, but where were you seeing MSU in the Big 10's top 5, let alone top 3, for the pre-season. Coaches preseason national poll had Ohio State #3, Wisconsin #12, Illinois #19, Penn State #22, Michigan #24 (yes, very funny), and Michigan State well outside the top 25 with just 9 total votes.AP poll was the same order, though slightly different national rankings, with MSU outside the top 25 and getting 21 total votes (behind Michigan's 36.)The ESPN preseason power poll had them fifth, again outside the top 25, just ahead of Michigan.Phil Steele had them in a three-way tie for seventh, behind Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Illinois. WAYYYYY down the national rankings and well outside the top 25The Sporting news got the closest to seeding MSU properly, but seriously messed up most of the others:#2 Ohio State #10 Illinois #14 Wisconsin #18 Michigan #27 Michigan State#29 Penn StateSo... as I said, fifth in the conference was the most GENEROUS spotting of the major analysts, and more or less conforms to about eight wins. Six or seventh in the conference, an equally typical projection, fits with seven regular season wins, and maybe even six.Nine wins, and still shooting for ten, sitting third and with a top-20 ranking, was on no major radar screen that I can find.

Pre-season (in some cases REALLY early preseason picks) a FN group that died shortly after the great FN format change of 2008 had MSU picked from 3rd to 6th. This was by no means a major screen, but then again I give little credence to polls and sportswriters.

Of the 11 participants, 2 had MSU at #3, 4 at #4, 5 at #5. Our surpries were NW and Wisconsin. Most had Michigan low, but noted they could drop further. Everyone had Minnesota in the bottom 2, but suspected they could do better (I think they had 5 or 6 losses by a TD or less).

In these picks and the polls, was the surprise the elevation of MSU, or the fall of Wisc, Mich, and Illini? MSU's performance against BC had everyone scrambling to the record to see MSU lost all of their games by a TD or less.

It was kind of cool to see the rankings you looked up. I don't follow them closely, but had thought the general consensus was OSU, PSU, and Wisc fighting for the top, Illini, Iowa, MSU finishing the top 6, Mich, NW fighting for the bowls, Indi, Minn, Pur fighting to stay out of last place.

Our picks are here. If you follow the blog you will se a couple of picks blogs.

http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/188935

December 12, 2008  11:13 PM ET

Elvis:

I beg to differ. My comparison btw Iowa and Georgia was "level of difficulty" not necessarily "style of team."

Iowa has a very stingy defense (No. 12 in the nation right now) and a strong running game. Overall offense suffers because Shonn Greene is the whole show, but their upset of Penn State was no fluke. The defense is good -- held Penn State to just 289 yards.

On a general level of effectiveness, Iowa and Georgia are not that different.

 
December 15, 2008  10:34 AM ET

Agree to disagree I guess- I think the level of offensive firepower would elevate UGA to a higher degree of difficulty than Iowa. UGA is the #3 team in the SEC, which though it is down , can still be considered a better conference than Big 10, in which Iowa is 4th-5th best.
UGa has certainly stubbed their toe badly at times - primarily due to playing too many young guys in key positions... Iowa may has a better overall defense though.

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