This much I already know: there are four playoff teams that have no shot to win the Super Bowl, and they are the Dolphins, Cardinals, Falcons, and Vikings. That means, right from the start, it's an eight-team race to the finish line. Of those eight, the Chargers are clearly on the shakiest ground. Basically, there are seven legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Let's take a look at the round 1 match-ups:

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins; Pick: Ravens

Based on my introduction, you surely knew this was coming. The Dolphins have been an incredible story this season, but their handful of fairy dust dissipates in the playoffs. Miami's offense is creative and surprisingly effective, but Baltimore's defensive unit has too much pride to be finessed in a postseason game. 

Coach Harbaugh will have his team prepared for the Dolphins' trickery, and Chad Pennington's girlish arm is a disaster waiting to happen against the Ravens' speed. Ed Reed will cash in on any lame ducks, and expect Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs to handle their business as well.

Joe Flacco's poise has been mind-boggling for a rookie, but I expect for my bewilderment to continue through this first round battle. Miami's defense is built to keep the 'Phins in games, but they remain succeptible to high scoring affairs because of a lack of playmakers (with the exception of Joey Porter). Baltimore's three-headed rushing monster of Willis McGahee, Le'Ron McClain, and Ray Rice will also present a sturdy roadblock in Miami's pursuit of postseason glory.

Flacco continues to impress, and the Ravens' defense makes the proper adjustments after an early Miami score in the first. It's Ravens 24, Dolphins 13.

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers; Pick: Colts

Of course the natural inclination is to jump straight to the Colts...but not so fast. Sure I've ultimately settled on Indy, but the Chargers will be right in this one. If they get a significant break in the second half, the outcome could potentially fall in their favor.

But if it plays true, without Luck in a leading role, then the Colts should have enough to get it done. What they have right now is momentum, and -- with Tom Brady out of the picture this season -- the best quarterback in football, Peyton Manning. I trust that Peyton will make the heady, correct throws in a close late-game situation, and that Reggie Wayne will be reliable at the other end of those tosses.

Anthony Gonzalez and Marvin Harrison are receiving wild cards at this point, but they'll work their way into the picture against a suspect San Diego defense. 

Indy's D pitched a shutout in the regular season finale against Tennessee, but don't expect repeat dominance in round 1. Philip Rivers (though his arm strength is unimpressive) will get his, and LT2 remains hungry for a Super Bowl appearance. They won't be enough, though, as San Diego falls at the hands of Indianapolis, 31 to 24.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings; Pick: Eagles

In a way, this one's pretty simple: I'm not siding with Tarvaris Jackson over Donovan McNabb in a playoff match-up. Jackson has certainly improved, but McNabb is on a mission and the Eagles absolutely pounded the immensely-talented Cowboys in a must-win Week 17 game.

The Eagles seem to have clicked at the right time, and they'll look to ride the Week 17 momentum. The game boasts two of the NFL's top running backs -- actually, two of the premier overall players -- Adrian Peterson and Brian Westbrook. Unfortunately Brad Childress will become too predictable in his reliance upon AP, and Andy Reid will quickly become wise to Minnesota's gameplan. We all know it -- the Vikings aren't going to place the pressure and season in Tarvaris' hands. He'll be asked to "manage the game" until Philly fully commits to stifling the run, which they will do.

From that point on, the target on Tarvaris' back becomes a can't-miss. Expect at least two offensive turnovers from the Vikings. Eagles will try to pull away, but Minny will do its best to keep it respectable. It's Eagles 27, Vikings 17.

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals; Pick: Falcons

Yeaaaa, what the hell, let's make it four out of four: another road victory in the opening round. This game represents the highest toss-up of the bunch, but there's just something about that Atlanta team this year. As I said earlier, there's no way they're winning the Super Bowl, but it looks like they'll be winning (at least) a single postseason game.

Sure, Arizona clinched a playoff spot awhile back, but they've been nothing short of atrocious in recent weeks. It's quite possible that this team has forgotten how to win. Kurt Warner has stiffened up and his once-invincible receiving core has revealed kinks in its armor. A team driven by offense is now sputtering in that aspect of the game, as well.

Michael Turner is a legitimate MVP candidate and he should continue rolling against Arizona's bullet-holed rush defense. I don't trust Atlanta's defense either, and that's the only reason this could be close. I'll say Atlanta 34, Arizona 27.

What do you think?