In hindsight... and a guess or two | legendofnil's Blog

Hindsight is 20/20

As we prepare to enter a new year, I want to spend a little time looking at some popular Trail Blazers' predictions made before the season.

Greg Oden: I think it's fair to say that Oden has not quite lived up to the lofty expectations so many people had set for him. But a lot of people also predicted that Oden would never be able to play more than 2 games in a row without getting injured, and so far he has stayed injury free (despite an early foot sprain that the team may or may not have overreacted to). Clearly, Oden has not fully regained the explosiveness and timing he possessed before his microfracture knee surgery. He's playing his first season of basketball in over a year, and his first ever NBA season (significantly longer and more grueling than a season of college basketball). No, his stats have not been impressive. Yes, he fouls too much (although I believe coach McMillain should just allow him to play until he fouls out to force Oden to work on cutting down his miscues). But every now and then he shows flickers of what he could become (like that 16 point, 10 rebound night vs. the Jermaine O'Neal and the Toronto Raptors last Saturday night). In Hindsight: Oden is going to be okay. There are still a lot of games left and a lot of post-major-surgery rust for him to shake off. Amare Stoudamire needed some patience coming back from his surgery... Oden is also a rookie learning the NBA game. So, give hime some time.

Brandon Roy: Before too long, it will be an understatement to call him an All-Star. He is beginning to flex his superstar potential. Roy is also one of the smartest, most selfless players in the NBA. For that reason, Roy probably feeling a little bit like he's in a tug-of-war right now. Does he put up superstar numbers every night, or does he scale his game back a bit and demand that his teammates live up to their potential too- because he knows he will need their help if the Blazers are ever to win a championship.

LaMarcus Aldridge: I have a feeling that Aldridge will finish the season playing much better, and much more consistently better than he is currently. He has struggled with consistency all year, whether it's shooting slumps or lackluster rebounding nights. He still settles for jump shots a little too much, but Aldridge is a smart and motivated player. I would expect him to step it up and give Roy some more help as the season winds on.

Nate McMillain: He's got a tough job here. All things considered, I think McMillain has done a great job so far. Remember- he came in to the season crippled with injuries to key reserves Martell Webster and Channing Frye. Greg Oden's opening night foot injury, and the team's ensuing humilating loss in L.A. would have a lot of coaches lowering expectations for their team. Not Nate. And when Oden returned, McMillain had to deal with the reality that the superstar he had seen in practice was not the same player showing up in real NBA games- effectively throwing a monkey wrench into the well oiled machine McMillain had envisioned his team being during preseason preparations. With a record of 19-12 and standing as the 6th seed in the Western Conference, it is hard to say that the Trail Blazers have not exceeded any realistic expectations so far. Yes, team-defense is still a work in progress (especially when it comes to defending late game 3-pointers), and yes the team is relying too much on Brandon Roy lately... but remember that this is still one of the youngest teams in the NBA and just look at how much they have grown under McMillain's tutelage.

The rest: Steve Blake has once again improved his game. He now is a dependable shooter and an impressive 3-point threat. He has also improved quite a bit defensively. You'd like to see his playmaking skills a little more polished, but given his track record I would bet on him making those improvements. Channing Frye -who worked so hard on his game during the summer- appears to have been thrown off his game by the injury he suffered during training camp. It's a shame too, because this team could really use the Frye of last season... I hope he finds his game again real soon. Martell Webster could be an x-factor for this team when he returns. His 3 point shooting, improved defense and athleticism, and work ethic could be a valuable spark off the bench. Joel Pryzbilla has to be considered a strong candidate for 6th man of the year. The way he's playing, his attitude (humbly coming off the bench behind a struggling rookie), and his hard-nosed edge have been a huge part of this team's success this year... he is probably the most underrated player on the team. Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez make up one of the most solid and entertaining off-the-bench front courts in the league.

My predictions: Blazers finish with the 7th or 8th seed (a first round exit, but I could see it going to a game 7 depending on the opponent). Roy is again an All-Star, but this time also in the running for the MVP award. Oden does not win rookie of the year (I doubt he'll really even be in the running) but finishes the second half of the season strong (I still think he'll find himself this season and begin to become a big factor for this team). I also predict that a lot of fans will unfairly call for McMillain's head- believing that the team should have somehow finished with a top 4 seed and that Oden's slow development is somehow McMillain's fault... but they will also probably be the same fans calling for McMillain to be coach of the year in a couple of years when the Trail Blazers are perrenial contenders.

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December 30, 2008 02:40 PM ET

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You failed to mention Batum in your column. He is an important cog in the wheel- one of those role players who does a lot of little things that make the team successful. His "D" is above average, and he knocks down the 3, maintains good spacing, is patient- all without demanding the ball. For a rookie, he's an exceptional find with a huge upside. When he matures as a player, I see him becoming a Tayshaun Prince type of player. Not a bad guy to have around. Then there's Travis Outlaw. The way he plays, I wouldn't even let him in the game until the 4th quarter. He seems to be more of a liability than a help before then. Despite his obvious talents, I have to wonder whether he'll ever be bright enough to be a consistent player. He seems unable to focus on more than one thing in any particular game. When Martell gets back and healthy, it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I'm thinking that it'll be Channing Frye who eventually loses the minutes or gets traded. That's a shame because he has the intelligence and talent to be a solid contributor, but doesn't seem to have the motivation or work ethic to improve and expand his game like Aldridge has. He also seems to be afraid to get his nose bloodied doing the dirty work inside as well. Given his talent and intelligence, there's no way Outlaw should be ahead of him in the rotation. It's all up to him, though. I think with time Bayless will be a contributor- possibly this year- because he plays good "D" and he can get to the foul line consistently. Playing the point, though, demands that he control the flow of the game and get everyone involved which is a lot to ask of any rookie- much less a shoot first point guard. Still, the way the team is currently constructed, he could be useful.