Before I get to this week's match-ups, check out these quotes from my round 1 predictions:
(You can see the full piece here)
"This much I already know: there are four playoff teams that have no shot to win the Super Bowl, and they are the Dolphins, Cardinals, Falcons, and Vikings. That means, right from the start, it's an eight-team race to the finish line."
Hmm, so the Dolphins, Falcons, and Vikings are already out. I'm 3 for 3, considering the fact that either the Cardinals or Falcons HAD to move on because they played each other.
"Coach Harbaugh will have his team prepared for the Dolphins' trickery, and Chad Pennington's girlish arm is a disaster waiting to happen against the Ravens' speed. Ed Reed will cash in on any lame ducks, and expect Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs to handle their business as well."
Pretty sure Ed Reed had two picks of "girlish" Pennington throws.
"...the Ravens' defense makes the proper adjustments after an early Miami score in the first."
Miami scored first, and had a 3-0 lead early on.
"Of course the natural inclination is to jump straight to the Colts...but not so fast. Sure I've ultimately settled on Indy, but the Chargers will be right in this one. If they get a significant break in the second half, the outcome could potentially fall in their favor."
Three straight penalties against the Colts during the critical overtime drive -- that has to be considered "a significant break."
"We all know it -- the Vikings aren't going to place the pressure and season in Tarvaris' hands. He'll be asked to "manage the game" until Philly fully commits to stifling the run, which they will do. From that point on, the target on Tarvaris' back becomes a can't-miss."
That's EXACTLY what happened in the second half of the Philadelphia/Minnesota game.
I decided to highlight those statements so you new readers don't say, "Why the hell should I care what this guy predicts?"
Hey, give me a shot.
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans; Pick: Ravens
This one's gonna be a dog fight -- I don't expect either team to run away with it. Both teams are looking to stifle you with their defenses, and neither is uncomfortable in a close late-game situation. Specifically, the Ravens' defense is superior to the Titans' (though Tennessee's is more than respectable), and the Titans' offense is narrowly better than the Ravens'.
As far as differentials, I think Baltimore's defense has a greater separation from Tennessee's than the Titans' offense has from the Ravens'. Defensively, only the Steelers can be placed in the top tier alongside the Ravens. Ed Reed is probably the premier defensive player in the NFL, and Ray Lewis is perhaps the most intelligent and instinctual. Tennessee has injury question marks in both Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, two invaluable D-linemen.
The Titans will also be a bit rusty, while the Ravens are coming off an encouraging stomping of the Dolphins, on the road no less. Both teams can run the ball -- Le'Ron McClain, Willis McGahee, and Ray Rice vs. Chris Johnson and LenDale White -- though I have to give Baltimore's trio the slight edge right now. LenDale has run out of steam in recent weeks and could be a total non-factor unless it's first/second and goal from the 1 or 2 yard line.
I'd rather have Kerry Collins over Joe Flacco in this game, but the separation is not nearly enough. It's Ravens 17, Titans 13.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers; Pick: Steelers
As I've said many times in the past, I'm not a Philip Rivers supporter. However, he did what he needed to do in the Chargers' first round nailbiter against the Colts, and I applaud him for his toughness. That said, I absolutely HATE this match-up for Rivers: on the road, at one of the most difficult places to play, against a top-two defense with tenacity and explosiveness.
I think Pittsburgh is too prideful and ferocious to let the diminutive Darren Sproles hurt them in this one, either. The Chargers seemingly always find a way to compete, so I'm not (entirely) counting them out, but I think it would take a small miracle for them to actually come away with a victory. LaDainian Tomlinson is banged up, and a game of this magnitude is one where Shawne Merriman will be sorely missed.
Ben Roethlisberger may be a bit punch drunk, and that may be what ultimately keeps San Diego in the contest. I like the Steelers to hold on by the score of 20-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers; Pick: Panthers
This one may be a little trickier than it appears on the surface. Everyone's natural inclination seems to be: "PANTHERS, come on, it's a no-contest."
I wouldn't say "no-contest," though. In my first set of predictions I said that the Cardinals were one of four teams that had absolutely no chance to win the Super Bowl, and I intend to stick to that. However, I think they'll surprise people and give Carolina a game. The Cardinals are flying high after their impressive win over the Falcons, and they'll maintain a reasonable level of momentum.
Arizona's defense did an astounding job against Michael Turner in round 1, so DeAngelo Williams may have his work cut out for him as well. Luckily for Panthers' fans, they also have Jonathan Stewart in the fold, and he brings the strength and power while DeAngelo sports the speed and incredible break-away ability. It's been a tough combination for any team to handle, and though Arizona may have handled Turner well, I don't trust them to continue stuffing the run this time around.
Kurt Warner is about ten times better than Jake Delhomme, but Carolina's defense and running game blows Arizona's out of the water. Cards will battle, but fall short by the score of 31-24.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants; Pick: Eagles
Without question, this is the toughest game of the week to predict. The Eagles are coming off a reassuring road victory at Minnesota, but the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions. Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, and Philly's D are rolling, but Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, and the Giants' D don't intend to roll over. Not in the slightest bit.
If this were last year's New York Giants, I'd be picking them. No, not in hindsight because they won The Big One, but because they had Plaxico Burress, Osi Umenyiora, and Michael Strahan. Burress and Umenyiora were arguably the Giants' top two players last season.
Now, all three are out of the picture, and New York will have been off the playing field for a full two weeks. The Eagles will be locked in and have some extra pep in their step after the opening round victory, while the G-Men will have to feel their way around in the early stages of this exciting match-up.
McNabb looks rejuvinated (whether or not that actually has anything to do with his benching, I really don't care), and Brian Westbrook is always a major X-factor. He can break off a big one on a screen play, seemingly, at any time. De'Sean Jackson is a wild card on special teams, too.
Quite frankly, I prefer Philly's defense to New York's. I think the Eagles have the third-best defense, behind the Ravens and Steelers. Asante Samuel is an outstanding cornerback, and Brian Dawkins is an ageless wonder of a safety. Coordinator Jim Johnson is a crafty, innovative, old pro.
This should be a classic. The scale is tipping slightly in favor of Philly, though -- they'll win dramatically, 27-24.
The floor is now yours...
Damaris Lewis
Brooklyn Decker
Did You See That?
Back in Time: July 3
Comments (23) Add A Comment
Philly's passing game yesterday was anemic at best. Little dunks and slants and screens. Somewhat effective but it didn't open up the field much and the Viking defense was able to keep the box loaded and the running game controlled. Were it not for the screen to Westbrook who broke it seventy yards for a TD in the 4th the momentum of this game looked to be moving in the other direction. Philly wasn't able to get much pressure on Jackson defensively. Conversely, the Eagle's O-line looked porous and McNabb was under pressure all day. Basically it didn't look like the Philly team that beat the hell out of Dallas last week or even the one that beat the Jints a few weeks ago in the Meadowlands.
That said, Philly did gain some confidence with the win which will be useful to them against the Jints. The Giants needed the bye week to rest Jacobs, Ross, Boss, McKenzie and frankly, the rest of the O-Line. They'll be ready and rested on Sunday and unlike the Cowboys of last year who came into the divisional round too confident and unprepared, the Giants know what it means to play in the big game. One of the remarkable things about the Giants is that even though they are defending Superbowl champions, they never seem to be overly confident, meaning that they never take winning for granted. They still play like they're the underdogs, that they have something to prove and that no one is giving them the respect they deserve. It works for them and in the big games -- like against Carolina -- they gut-check it and somehow find a way to win.
This is going to be a great game. Being division rivals these teams know each other well. The close proximity of the cities means that there will be more Philly fans at Giants stadium than should be legal (god only knows how they manage to get so many tickets). They're matched up well defensively and offensively and I think it's going to come down to whether Jacobs/Ward have a better day running than Westrook/Buckhalter. It'll be a bruiser and it'll be close, but I think that experience wins out and the Jints eek a victory -- say 24-20.
Of course as a Giants fan, I would MUCH rather have them playing the Cardinals, but this will definitely be more exciting...Go JINTS!
Hollywood Big Blue…
Total Comments (36)
please tell me what your (and apparently many others) problem is with Phillip Rivers.
Aerochunck
Total Comments (104)
I just wanted to bring up a point about the G-men...
The Giants have beaten every team (that they've played) that is left in the playoffs: Arizona, Carolina, Philly, Pitt. & the Ravens..(didnt play Titans or SD). they've got a good game plan and they know how to win. this weekend should be a gut wrenching game to watch (for both sides)...it's gonna be a good one.
CTGiantsFan
Total Comments (32)
Well put, Hollywood. But don't you agree that we're not talking about the same Giants team this year? Plaxico, Umenyiora, and Strahan -- those are big dogs.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (462)
A few things:
(1) His arm strength has been wildly overrated for years, and he's really nothing more than a manage-the-game type quarterback. That's fine, he's solid at what he does, but he's not an elite, top 5 QB like many love to say.
(2) The Chargers should already have a Super Bowl talent with the surrounding talent Rivers has had. If San Diego stuck with Drew Brees they would have had at least one SB championship. Would have been the exceptional quarterback/exceptional supporting cast combination.
(3) He whines and shows up his own players when things aren't going well. Simply can't stand the sight of his puss face.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (462)
** should already have a Super Bowl ['talent'] shouldn't be there.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (462)
truth is the ravens are hot,the titans are home chillin and getting fat from xmas and new years cookings.i see the ravens go in there and take care of business.i also think the chargers have a better chance of winning 1.momentum 2.ben is not 100% although i rather see the steelers/ravens 3.
2bulli
Baltimore , MD
Total Comments (8)
Good picks...except that the Chargers win. Rivers is the BEST QB in the NFL this year and has carried the team all year until they finally put it all together and won 5 in a row.
Rivers is a winner!! He has the record to prove it...Brees is also a good QB but doesn't have the big game record that Rivers has. They said the same thing about Brees in SD before they got rid of him...couldn't win the big games. Rivers can and does.
Rivers teammates are very high on him...I don't know where you get the...shows up his own players BS????
fact-no-hype
Total Comments (96)
Good picks...except the Chargers beat the Steelers!!
Rivers is the BEST QB in the NFL this year and has carried the Chargers until they finally put it together and won 5 in a row. He is a WINNER and has the record to prove it!!! They said Brees couldn't win the big game in SD before they got rid of him. Rivers can and has!!! He is definitely among the best in the NFL!!!
His teamates think very highly of him, especially his toughness and competitiveness. I don't know where you're getting the"....shows up his own players" BS??
fact-no-hype
Total Comments (96)
15 for 26 with 2 picks and no TD's and 159 total yards passing. That was Rivers in Pittsburgh in 45 degree weather. I like Rivers, he is tough and he does compete, but he will be overwhelmed by the Steelers defense in a game sure to be in the 20's or colder. Rivers did lose 8 games this year.--Twice as many as Roethlisberger and Rivers has the great fortune of playing in the embarassingly poor AFC West. The AFC North is a few rungs up the ladder and Rivers will be lucky to escape this game with no career threatening injuries.
All of Jfro's picks are on the money by the way--good calls
holmeschool
Total Comments (216)
Almost everyone is picking the Giants to lose. They love being the underdogs, and don't think they won't use all of the game predictions as bulletin board material.
Chargers-Steelers is a tough game to call. If the Bolts can get to Big Ben early, it's over, but I don't think it's very likely.
Nikolai
Total Comments (491)
The Chargers were not the same team in the first game - they are now on a roll. The first game was not good for either offense and the game was pretty even, the Steelers did not score a TD. This time the Chargers will be firing on all cylinders! The weather is not that big a deal, both teams have to play in it - and the fact is the Chargers are now a better team. all around but especially on D.
fact-no-hype
Total Comments (96)
1) Actually, arm strength has never been his big thing. He does have a deceivingly strong arm, but not a cannon. His forte' is accuracy and, yes, ball control.
2) Peyton Manning has been playing for 11 years and has how many SBs (1, yes I know the answer)? How many does Drew Brees have? How many did Marino get? Must be bad QBs. I would beg to differ. So, let???s look at Rivers' 3 years as SD's starter (I believe Drew Brees started before him ....and no SB. Interesting):
2006 - 14-2, lost in the 1st rd to NE 24-21, (Indy wins SB)
2007 - Norv Turner???s first season (a coach who has NEVER shown the ability to be a head coach) - 11-5, lost in AFC Championship game with LT out and Rivers playing on a torn knee ligament. Lost 21-12 to NE (who was unbeaten, and they still almost took them), (Giants win SB)
2008 - Still under Turner; 8-8 with a defense that has been uninspired and mediocre and a coach staff that has been completely inept. Rivers is the highest rated QB in the NFL (by a significant margin). End yet to be seen. Knocked off Indy in 1st rd ???AGAIN.
3) Amazing how the press can blow something up. Rivers is a fierce competitor and a heck of a leader. He does not show up his teammates, but gives them ALL the credit. You will never hear him boasting of how he is so much better then this QB or that one. He is humble and deserves better treatment then he has received from media and fans.
Looking around, I did found something interesting. Lots of derogatory video/posting about Rivers . ..LOTS. I was really disappointed considering how good a person he is (devout Christian and dedicated father). Then I started to note something very amusing. All of these posting were coming from Broncos and Colts fans! All the sudden, it became clear. Let???s look at these two teams Rivers has played often in his 3 years as a starter, and the results:
vs. Denver: 5-1, and the 1 was the blown ref call. Most of the wins were by VERY large margins. Average margin of victory: 25 points!
vs. Indy: 3-1, 2 of those wins in the playoffs.
No wonder these fans are pretty irate at Rivers; he's been killing them! I would rather support a QB with the class of Rivers any day then a QB that can put a ball through a wall.
Speaking of whining QBs, of the 2 teams mentioned that Rivers has victimized, only one has a QB that continues to be a punk about an alleged smack talking incident (which Rivers shouted to HIS team "Come on baby!": give you a hint, I doubt he'll be in the Hall of Fame (Peyton will be).
Aerochunck
Total Comments (104)
I do agree it's not the same Giants team. Umenyiora and Strahan were the anchors of the D-Line, but Tuck and Kiwanuka have done a great job so far this year making the ends theirs. Tuck in fact has really come in to his own and has become a worthy successor to Strahan. Granted the defense isn't as successful as the Jints were last year but I chalk some of that up to the fact that there's a lot more film available on Spag's defensive schemes and a lot fewer surprises for opposing offenses.
Let's also not forget that the Jints lost Kawika Mitchell and Reggie Torbor as well and yet their run defense is statistically better this season than it was last. I will say that the secondary is has been hurting these last few weeks but suspect that getting Aaron Ross back into the lineup will help. besides, I don't think McNabb will be throwing down field very much in the wind and cold of the Meadowlands.
All that considered, I would say that defensively the Giants are maybe playing at 85-90% efficiency of last year's squad. Still good enough to control the line of scrimmage against the Eagles which would lead me to believe that McNabb will be looking to throw a bunch of short screen passes to Westbrook and some short slants to his TE's. We'll see.
Hollywood Big Blue…
Total Comments (36)
I predict the Rams will NOT be in the Superbowl this year.
Shabba Rommel
Total Comments (39)
JFro, great picks...I think you hit the nail on the head man.
OKstate_Steelers_Fan
Killeen , TX
Total Comments (5)
JFro your picks are on point...good job!
OKstate_Steelers_Fan
Killeen , TX
Total Comments (5)
Many thanks, OKstate. Good luck with the Steel Curtain this week -- you guys should be just fine.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (462)
Chargers v. Steelers will be an absolute battle. Sproles will not run through the Steelers D the way he embarassed the Colts but he will have some success. Remember you can't hit what you can't see and Sproles lack of size is just as much a weapon as his speed when he shoots out from behind that offensive line like a cannon ball. The real storyline here is Rivers vs. Pitty D and Roethlisberger v. bad field position after crazy Mike Scifres punts. All we can do at this point is sit back, relax and watch what is sure to be some great post season football. Enjoy!
jpenny3
San Diego , CA
Total Comments (5)
Chargers v. Steelers will be an absolute battle. Nobody should expect Sproles to run through the Steelers D the way he knifed up Indy but he will still get his. Remember you can't hit what you can't see and at 5'6 Sproles shoots out from behind the offensive line like a cannon ball. The weather won't be as big a factor as the crowd. The real battle to watch in this game is Rivers vs. a Steelers that had in check the first matchup and Roethlisberger vs. bad field position after crazy Mike Scifres punts pin him back inside the 20 all game. I guess all that's left to do is sit back, relax and enjoy some outstanding postseason football. Enjoy!
jpenny3
San Diego , CA
Total Comments (5)
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