FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Hello Ladies and Gents, are you gearing up for the NBA trade season? The people who report the rumors clearly don't spend any time actually thinking about what they report. What teams are in a position to trade? Which aren't? Where will Marbury end up? Will the Heat ever do anything with Shawn Marion's expiring deal? I thought it was time to take a look at some of the rumors and potential trades but for a change of pace, let's break it down per confrence and conjecture which teams might actually be in position to make trades this year. (you can see my Western Confrence list here: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/322995-nba-trades-western-confrence )

Two of the three biggest obstacles to figuring out a trade are:

• If it works financially 
• That it makes sense strategically for ALL teams involved.

The last big piece to the puzzle is this number: $71.15 million. That is the salary cap for this year. Any team with salaries over this amount must pay a dollar for dollar tax. 

First lets think about the teams most willing to make moves: Contenders, the possibly playoff bound and the salary cap cutters (also known as the 2010 devotees).

Of the east contenders Boston and Orlando seem most likely to stand pat with their current rosters.

"But wait Deuce!!! What's with all the rumors of Marbury reuniting with KG in Boston?"

Never going to happen through a trade

The Celtic's Big 3 account for over 60 million in salary so adding any additional player would significantly impact their salary cap tax (currently paying 9 million). Starbury's salary of $20.8 million would tip the scale well into the red AND make the team worse. So keep listening to those rumors the idiots in the NY media keep spreading of Marbury to Boston.

The Cavs are best positioned to make a big move via trade regardless of being well over the salary cap with a team payroll of $90 million. Currently they owe $19 million in tax this year. Ouch. They have a few useful trade chips however. Expiring contracts to the tune of Wally Szczerbiak's $13 million as well as Eric Snow's $7.3 million. But with the team playing so well why mess with it?

Wally is a useful bench player, and the money for any incoming player(s) would have to be close to the out going salaries. It wouldn't make much sense unless it was a major player. BUT...if they were to try and make a move, why not give up those two expiring contracts for Shawn Marion? The money works, and Miami might do it as they get more money off their cap number at the end of the year (either they write off Marion's salary of 17.8 or they write Wally and Eric Snow off to the tune of 21 million).  Am I the only one curious to see how a starting line up of Delonte West, Mo Williams, Marion, Lebron and Big Ben works? That could be a scary defensive team come playoff time.

Orlando is similar but just under the cap at $69 million. They have a solid rotation at the moment and a few players are under paid (Turkoglu specifically) but I'd be surprised if the more moveable contracts (Keith Brooks, Adonal Foyal, and Tony Battie) go. If Orlando makes a trade its only to improve for a shot at the title and most likely pushes them over the salary cap. Thats a tough sell to the owner forking up the cash to pay the tax when he is staring down the Celts and Cavs come playoff time.

Atlanta is also on the edge of the salary cap at $68 million. With their ownership group battling out control internally I don't see a big splashy move that pushes them over the cap.

Detroit already made their big trade for the year landing AI. They are just over the cap so they could do something small to get under. Rasheed's got an expiring contract but I'd be surprised if they traded him.

Miami could use Shawn Marion's $17 million dollar expiring contract. The Matrix has been less Matrixy the last two years so its a possibility but who are they getting in return for Marion? If you say Marbury I punch you. The Cleveland trade I mentioned above is the only plausible option for Marion (I'm mentioning for now). ;)

The Nets and Jay Z are aiming for "The Summer of Lebron" in 2010 so the only trades they'll make have that goal in mind. Same goes for the Knicks.

Milwaukee is just over the cap and just barely in the playoffs (currently ranked 8th in the east). That makes them a very likely trade partner in my opinion. They could make a trade to acquire a solid player to secure playoff position or to get under the cap. I think the later is more likely to happen. They have a few useful trade chips with expiring contracts in Damon Jones, and Tyronn Lue but I could also see them shopping under performing Charlie Bell and his manageable 3 year contract with less than 15 million owed.

Chicago is also on the lip of the playoffs (currently 9th in the east) and just under the cap. Drew Gooden and Ben Gordon have expiring deals to barter with. I'm sure Chicago would be happy to entertain offers for Larry Hughes, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, and Andres Nocioni's 5 year 36 million dollar deal. Good luck.

Everyone else (New York, Toronto, Philly, Charlotte, Indiana and Washington) have to be considered possible trade partners as they look to cut payroll. Philly and Toronto are tough to call as teams that were expected to be contenders but have fallen short. Toronto could use Anthony Parker and Jorge Garbajosa as trade bait (both with $4 million expiring contracts). Philly could try and bait someone into taking some of their smaller contracts in an attempt to make space to resign Andre Miller next year. Otherwise New York will try to be busy at the trade deadline moving Marbury but the most likely result could be a buy out after the trade deadline. So the best potential trade to come down from the East this year?

Marion to the Cavs for expiring contracts. If that happens the Cavs lock up their first eastern confernce title and a date with the Lakers in the Finals.

Am I missing any good potential trades? If so who?

I'll be back for more with a review of Western Confernce teams...here is a tease: The most realistic Marbury trade?

Sacramento Kings: Marbury (expiring $20.8 million contract) and Mark Madsen (one year after this season around 2 million)

Wolves: Brad Miller (one year after this season at 12.250 Million)

Knicks: Jason Collins (expiring 6 million), Kenny Thomas (one  more year at 8.5), and Calvin Booth (expiring 1.14)