I love the bowl season because it gives us wonderful non-conference action. The bowl season is the one time where conference judgment is almost objective.
I’ve devised three formulas so you can pick which ever one you like the best to decide which conference did the best.
First I had to sift out the pecking order of the bowls. To decide between the tier of the bowls, I usually used the records for both teams. For instance, if both teams’ records combined for 12-14 wins (before the bowl game), then they were definitely in a 3rd tier bowl. If the teams combined for 15 wins, then it was a gut call as to whether they were 3rd or 2nd tier. 16 combined wins and up usually got you a 2nd tier bowl game spot (the only exception was the Texas Bowl for obvious reasons).
Bowl Pecking Order: (winner is denoted with *)
Third Tier:
Eagle Bank (Wake Forest*-Navy), New Mexico (Colorado St.*-Fresno), Saint Petersburg (Memphis-USF*), New Orleans (Southern Miss.*-Troy), Hawaii (Hawaii-Notre Dame*), Motor City (FAU*-Central Mich.), Independence (NIU-Louisiana Tech*), PapaJohn’s.com (NC State-Rutgers*), Humanitarian (Maryland*-Nevada), Texas (W. Mich.-Rice*), Armed Forces (Houston*-Air Force), , Insight (Kansas*-Minnesota), Liberty (Kentucky*-E. Carolina) [Kentucky being 6-6 and E. Carolina being from the conference USA hurt this bowl’s tier at 15 combined wins], and International (Buffalo-UConn*)
Second Tier:
Las Vegas (BYU-Arizona*), Poinsettia (Boise St.-TCU*), Meineke Car Care (WVU*-UNC), Champs Sports (Wisconsin-FSU*), Emerald (Miami-Cal*), Alamo (Missouri*-Northwestern), Holiday (Oklahoma St.-Oregon*), Sun (Oregon St.*-Pittsburgh), Music City (Boston College-Vanderbilt*) [This is the biggest one I was teetering with at 15 wins combined pre-bowl, but this game was very interesting to me with the ACC&SEC match up and it being Vandy's first bowl in a long time.] Chick-fil-a (LSU*-Georgia Tech), Outback (South Carolina-Iowa*), Capitol One (UGA*-Mich. St.), Gator (Nebraska*-Clemson), Cotton (Ole Miss*-Texas Tech), GMAC (Ball St.-Tulsa*) [I'm tempted to put the GMAC lower, but their records are too good to pass up.], and finally the Orange Bowl (Cincinnati-Virginia Tech*)
I had to put the Orange bowl in the 2nd tier because it was such a bad BCS game. It’s almost like the BCS decision makers just lumped these two ugly-ducklings together because they had no other place to go except for the “Outcast BCS Bowl.” I could put the Orange Bowl in the BCS section, but I wouldn’t like it. Did you see the crowd for that game too? It wasn't even half capacity.
BCS:
Rose (Penn St.-USC*), Sugar (Utah*-Alabama), and Fiesta (Ohio St.-Texas*)
National Title:
BCS title game(Florida*-Oklahoma)
Formula 1:
How I devised this formula was just for the bowl winners. A bowl win in the first tier got 1 point. In the 2nd tier, a win was 2 points. (uh oh, where'm I going with it?) A BCS bowl game win was worth 3 points, and the National Title was worth 4 points.
Here are the standings from that formula:
1. SEC and Pac 10 - 11 points
3. Mountain West and Big 12 - 8 points
5. ACC - 6 points
6. Big East and Conference USA - 5 points
8. Big 10 - 2 points
10. WAC, Sun Belt, Independents - 1 point
11. MAC - 0 points
Formula 2:
In this formula, any bowl loser gets one point for at least making it to a bowl. A 3rd tier bowl winner gets 2 points, 2nd tier winner gets 3 points, BCS winner gets 4 points, and National Title Winner gets 5 points.
Rankings:
1. SEC - 18 points
2. ACC and Pac 10 - 16
4. Big 12 - 15
5. Mountain West - 13
6. Big East and Conference USA - 11
8. Big 10 - 9
9. MAC - 6
10. Independents and WAC - 4
12. Sun Belt - 3
Formula 3:
In the final formula, the bowl winners' and losers' points are distributed by tier of bowl game. A 3rd tier loser gets 1 point, and a 3rd tier winner gets 3 points. A 2nd tier loser gets 2 points, and a 2nd tier winner gets 4 points. A BCS bowl loser gets 3 points, and a BCS winner gets 5 points. A National Title loser gets 4 points, and a National title winner gets 6 points. I did this because some bowls are more understandable to lose because they are more competitive. For example, losing the National Title game is much more understandable than losing the Motor City Bowl because that competition is at a much higher level. Would Oklahoma have won a 2nd tier bowl like the Outback or Cotton Bowl? Almost definitely they would have won. This is why formula three awards points for a high bowl loss.
Rankings:
1. SEC - 26 points
2. ACC - 25
3. Big 12 - 24
4. Pac 10 - 21
5. Mountain West - 18
6. Big East and Big 10 - 17
8. Conference USA - 15
9. MAC - 7
10. WAC - 6
11. Independents - 5
12. Sun Belt - 4
Interesting points:
- The poor ol' MAC didn't win a singe bowl game they played (which was 5 third tier bowls and one second tier).
- Iowa was the only Big Ten bowl team to win.
- Pac 10 was undefeated.
- The ACC had 10 bowl teams playing in 3 3rd tier games and 7 2nd tier games (two wins in each tier of bowl).
Analysis:
I honestly like the third formula the best because it really factors in the strength of the bowl games even if they are lost. Losing a bowl game sucks, but a bowl game loss should not be completely discreditted because making a bowl, especially a good bowl, should still be worth something. Not making it to a bowl is much worse than losing a bowl game because not making a bowl reflects very poorly upon a team's entire season. The regular season should also make a reflection upon the bowls, and it does the best in the last formula.
Let me know if you disagree with anything.
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Nice... I know I wouldn't haven't taken all that time to figure all that out. Good job
JDawg1447
Jasper , GA
Total Comments (527)
I prefer a bit more of an apples to apples comparison - what was the record based on how the teams were matched based on how they finished in their own conference.
Fail to do this, and you equate Div #2 FSU over Conf #6 Wisc to evenly matched Div #2 UGA over Conf #3 MSU - there should be a distinction between games you were expected to lose and lost, games you were expected to lose and won, and games where you were evenly matched.
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Frellin Cold In, AK
Total Comments (7497)
Yeah playing up/down to your competition has a lot to do with it. I don't know how I'd figure that in.
How 'bout 'em
Marietta, GA
Total Comments (2080)
Nice Job. Your third formula is the best by far.
The Big 12 North won all three bowl games. The Big 12 South went 1-3. Does that make the Big 12 North the better division? Not even close.
Yes, ACC should get credit for being able to send 10 teams to bowls.
CardsFan2
Saint Louis , MO
Total Comments (2559)
I parallel the conference ranking (3rd and 4th in the B10 equates to a division 2nd). I set a benchmark record based on a team winning all of the games they were the higher team, lose all of the games they were the lower, win 50% of the games that were even, and expect the majors to beat any of the other 5 (I only look at the major conferences).
I do a quick check at the end for anomolies. Example, it is reasonably clear to anyone who isn't a homer or a hater from their bowl performance the teams in the B12 were 1-OU, 2-TX, 3-TT, 4-Miss (not 2-Miss, TX a division 3rd). I can't call USC playing 15 miles down the road in a stadium they play a regular season game in every other year anything but the biggest location advantage of any team in a major bowl.
Once these are factored, I make a call where there are ties based on the upsets, performance when even, how close they were matched.
1. PAC 10 went 5-0, benchmark was 4-1
Oregon State beat Pitt (lower win)
2. SEC went 6-2, benchmark was 3.5-4.5
FL over OU (even)
UGa over MSU (even)
Ole Miss over TT (even)
Vandy over BC (lower win)
LSU over Ga Tech (lower win)
Utah over Bama (loss to other 5)
If it wasn't for Bama, or the fact the ACC has been miserable for the 3rd year now, I would have ranked them 1st. Even with these, you could still move them to 1st with little argument from me... but when you have the only bowl loss to a team outside the majors, it sticks...
3. Big 12 4-3, benchmark was 4-3
OU lost to FL (even)
TX beat tOSU (even)
TT lost to Ole Miss (even) (I have TT as 3rd in conf, same as div 2nd)
Miss beat NW (even) (I have both as 4th in their conference)
4. Big 10 1-5, benchmark was 2.5-4.5
MSU lost to UGa (even)
tOSU lost to Texas (even) (I have Texas as the equivalent to 2nd)
NW lost to Missouri (even) (I have Missouri as conf #4)
How does a conference with only 1 win get 4th? Remember, this is based on how they would be expected to perform if the 2 conferences in question were even.
5. ACC 4-6, benchmark was 5.5-4.5
Conf #2 BC lost to Div 3 Vandy (higher loss)
Div 2 Ga tech lost to Div 3 LSU (higher loss)
VT beat Cinci (even)
Some might argue ACC over the Big 10 - both were 1-1/2 below benchmark, but the ACC played more games.
Their win in the only game the were evenly matched was, well, the Big East... and what kept them out of last place.
BC and GT were just ugly.
The Big 10 came close in 2 even losses and wasn't blown out in their 3rd.
6. Big East 4-2, benchmark was 5.5-.5
Cinci lost to VT (even)
Pitt lost to Oregon State (higher loss)
In reality, they were only in 2 bowls where their opponent was close... and they lost both.
Like I noted, there is a HUGE difference when you fctor in the expected results with the actual results.
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Frellin Cold In, AK
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No, they shouldn't. this is the mot rediculous stat listed by fans.
The number of teams from a major conference means nothing without a supporting argument.
Any team from a major conference that gets 6 wins gets a bowl invite. The average is of course 4-4 in a conference, so to get more than half into the bowls means...
-You had some teams that lost to everyone, boosting their records at the cost of just a couple
-You had a good OOC record - could mean you are good, or could mean you played a lot of lower teams from the other conferences (lower with respect to how your team finished in the conference)
-Almost all of the teams in your conference finished about the same, which was the case in the ACC
The above aren't good, they aren't bad, they are just nothing without something more to back it up.
With 10 teams finishing .500 or better, and Va finishing with 3 conference wins, the question should be why Virginia lost to both Connecticut and Duke preventing the ACC from getting 11 bowl invites.
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Frellin Cold In, AK
Total Comments (7497)
Good stuff.
How 'bout 'em
Marietta, GA
Total Comments (2080)
The WAC did win one bowl game (Independence Bowl; Louisiana Tech over Northern Illinois. HOw does this corrected stat change your rankings?
typhoonblue
Gloucester , VA
Total Comments (3)
The WAC, as terrible as they were, did indeed win one bowl game (Independence Bowl, Louisiana Tech over Northern Illinois). How would this correction change your rankings?
typhoonblue
Gloucester , VA
Total Comments (3)
The WAC definitely had a terrible bowl season, but they did win one game (Independence Bowl; Louisiana Tech over Northern Illinois).
typhoonblue
Gloucester , VA
Total Comments (3)
Depends on who you are talking to.
Depends on who you are talking to.
Depends on who you are talking to.
<<do you have a stuttering problem???>>
Just Kidding...
How 'bout 'em has them last I believe. I don't rank the other 5 conferences, expecting the majors to win every bowl against the other 5 (in the past 2 years, the other 5 have combined for 2 wins over the majors in the bowls, didn't look back further than that).
If I were to rank them, it would be using the same criteria, looking at how the teams placed in their respective conferences before applying the result of the game... which would have made the 2 wins in the past 2 years expected higher wins than the upsets they really were.
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Frellin Cold In, AK
Total Comments (7497)
Oh yeah, for some reason I thought La. Tech was in the Sun Belt. Thanks for the correction. I think the WAC will at least be over the MAC.
How 'bout 'em
Marietta, GA
Total Comments (2080)
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