JAubin's Blog
  • 10:49 AM ET  01.12
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We all know the story about Tim Tebow and how he led my Florida Gators to yet another BCS National Championship and AP National Title. And, we all know about how he was greated by the crowd at the Swamp when he announced he will return for another season. Many people have either said he will be a NFL legend, or a NFL legendary flop. Well, I am here to set the record straight.

 Tebow will not be a flop in the NFL. However, he will not be great either. Why do I say this? In order to flop in the NFL, scouts and coaches expect great things from you. Case and point, Ryan Leaf. With everything I have heard over the past few days, Tebow does not have whay it takes to be great in the NFL (at the moment; things can change depending on next year's performance).  In order to be great in the NFL, you have to have the ability to pass the ball down the field and read the defense while sitting in the pocket. Now, I'm am not one who can play quarterback at the college level, but both interception Tebow threw were awful reads. The first one, the Oklahoma safety was sitting there reading Tebow's eyes. I knew it was picked as soon as he threw it. The second one, well, if you can't see a 270+ defensive tackle in front of your receiver, then you need to go see an optometrist and forget about ever playing another snap at quarterback.

Take Mike Vick for an example (I would use Vince Young, but he still has time to prove himself). Great college quarterback for Virgina Tech University. But, he was a run first, pass second quarterback. Those days in the NFL have been over since the legalization of the forward pass. NFL teams cannot win with a running quarterback. And that is what Tebow is.

I know and I see that Tebow has a great arm. He proved that in high school setting all types of Florida High School records. But, I do not think he has enough faith in his arm to launch one down field against a really good secondary. Nor do I think that Urban Meyer has enough faith in his arm to call such a play. You do it a couple of times a game to keep the defense honest, but other than that, Meyer would not be calling it.

Can Tebow be successful at the next level. Maybe. If he falls into the right NFL system, and learns to pass before he runs during his senior year, then he may be successful. But unless Tebow throws for 6,000 yards against the SEC defense with 50 touchdowns, while gaining only 100 or so yards on the ground, he will not be a highly scouted quarterback that a team can look forward to in a year. Superman may be able to leap building in a sinle bound, but Tebow won't be leaping over any NFL linebackers without a headache.

January 12, 2009  11:53 AM ET

I agree with your conclusions and quite a bit of your blog. I will take a bit of exeception to using the interceptions as a basis. The first was a definitely awful bad decision but you have to give some credit to how low his interception ratio has been in his career. If you don't know it, look it up. So these type of bad decisions have not come often. The second was of course bad as well, but is actually a pretty common interception even among good quarterbacks in the NFL. The zone blitz puts a lineman/defender where you least expect them. The second one was much more forgiveable.

He definitely needs to show improvement as a pocket passer. His arm is strong enough and he is accurate enough, but to succeed in the NFL you have to be able to deliver out of the pocket, at least a good part of the time.

January 12, 2009  11:56 AM ET

I know about his ratio. Its not the interception to the lineman I am worried about, its the one to the safety. That's a pass where he has to look off the safety. When you see the film, he stares at his receiver the entire route, allowing for the easy interception.

January 12, 2009  12:00 PM ET
QUOTE(#2):

I know about his ratio. Its not the interception to the lineman I am worried about, its the one to the safety. That's a pass where he has to look off the safety. When you see the film, he stares at his receiver the entire route, allowing for the easy interception.

I agree completely that it was a terrible mistake. Have you noticed a pattern of such mistakes?

I disagree that he looked at him the entire route and I have studied the DVR replays. He was looking to go to the receiver in the flat. When he was covered he looked at the one farther down field but the pass had to travel way too far and the defender had way too long to make a break and cover the ground needed.

January 12, 2009  12:21 PM ET

Well, I haven't really looked at the film all that much, but it looked as if he stared at his down-field receiver longer than what he should have.

January 12, 2009  01:01 PM ET

good job

January 12, 2009  02:24 PM ET

This is one of the worst blogs I've read in a long time. Not are your conclusions completely off the mark, but you are borderline illiterate.

The bottom line is this: you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

January 12, 2009  02:25 PM ET

Hey -- I made a mistake, too. I meant to say "not ONLY are your conclusions off the mark..."

I guess we're all human. The difference is, I caught my mistake.

 
January 12, 2009  06:48 PM ET
QUOTE(#6):

This is one of the worst blogs I've read in a long time. Not are your conclusions completely off the mark, but you are borderline illiterate. The bottom line is this: you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

Well, it seems like one homer who has recently joined is angry because Tebow is not God. Sunshine, I am a huge Gators fan, and I can see clearly; Tebow is a great college quarterback as he stands, but will be an awful NFL quarterback. Move away from the Sunshine Network and listen to any other sports station. Mel Kiper will tell you how it is.

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