JDeuce's Blog
  • 04:00 PM ET  01.12
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Ladies and gents I'm back for my Western Conference trade analysis. Aren't you lucky ;) Who is in position to make a trade? Who isn't? If you'd like too see my Eastern Conference review you can check it out here:

http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/319136-nba-trades-eastern-confrence 

To jump right into it, the three main pieces to a trade puzzle are:

If it works financially, it makes sense strategically (for ALL teams involved), and how the trade would impact a team's luxury tax number. Any team with a total salary over 71.15 million pays a dollar for dollar tax for any salary over this number. 

Contenders and salary cap cutters are the most likely traders. A team on the edge of the playoffs might try to pull something off as well.

Lets start with the big dog of the west the Lakers.

While they are paying almost eight million in luxury tax the Lakers are deep enough they don't need to tweak their roster. However, they could be a home run hitter if they move Lamar Odom's $11.4 million dollar expiring contract. Marbury? Marion? Raef LaFrentz? While I'm sure Kobe is licking his chops at the idea of welcoming Raef to the lake show maybe they should keep Lamar, just an idea.

For the record the always rumored Lamar for Marion trade doesn't work straight up, the Lakers would have to add a small contract for the money to work.

The Spurs are a team I can see wanting to do something, they have about 3 million in cap space before hitting the luxury tax. Moving one of their smaller contracts to get a mid level guy might help. Except they have nothing to give up unless they part with Emanuel Ginobili, Eva Parker or Duncan. We all know that ain't happening.  I'd keep an eye on them for now.  They are close to the end of their run at contending and could make a final push.

Denver has already put their fan base through the wringer. They dumped Camby's contract for nothing, began the season with everyone assuming they'd go no where, then traded AI (the guy they should've traded in the first place) to get one of the craftiest guards in the league in Billups. They'll stand pat as they are contending and under the cap.

The Hornets would like to trade Tyson Chandler '08 for Tyson Chandler '07. If they can't do that, their other option is to move a small contract to take on a mid level guy. I don't see it happening.

Dallas is sporting the second highest payroll in the league. When you're barely overshadowed by the Knicks absurd payroll, you've done as good a job managing your team's finances as AIG. Cuban might try to make a move but most of his contracts are longer than teams want (for the summer of Lebron) or won't match up well with trade partners. If Dallas does make a trade I expect they'll be taking on more payroll in an attempt to contend. If the Mavs were willing to part with Josh Howard and Stackhouse they could land Marion possibly. I think the heat will have better offers but Howard and Stack for Marion works and both of their contracts are up in two years (Howard has a team option for a third).

Portland doesn't need to do a thing come trade deadline. Ok maybe send out a threatening letter to every team in the league almost guaranteeing someone does pick up Daruis Miles. But that's it. 

Houston made a move early by grabbing Ron Artest. Hasn't work out like they planned but you could chalk that up to the injury bug. The only move they'd try is to help themselves get under the cap by some miracle.

Phoenix made their move earlier as well by swapping Boris Diaw and Raja Bell for Jason Richardson. I liked this move and I think it helps to balance out their attack. They have few moveable pieces as a result and it should be expect that they shop but don't make a move.

What can you expect from a team with Drago from Rocky 4 as the highest paid player? Not much, but a trade maybe! Poor Utah is between a rock and a hard place. They're over paying some players (see my Worst NBA Salaries:  http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/217757-worst-nba-salaries) and not paying enough to others (Milsap the guy doing Boozer's job for $10,796,236 dollars less). What to do, what to do. Boozer's already declared he'll test free agency. The Jazz are in the playoff hunt currently tied with Houston for 8th. Do they make a move to contend this year or buffer themselves from losing Boozer to free agency? Plus Milsap is a free agent next year too!! If they can move Kirilenko's contract I think they do. Sorry Marbury isn't going here either, The money doesn't match. 

The rest of the west is out of playoff contention and will do battle amongst themselves for ping pong balls. Memphis, Minnesota, Golden State, the Clippers, Sacramento, and Sea...Oklahoma City are all under the cap and could make moves.

Clips have small contracts and cap space but nothing worth moving. If they aren't contending I don't see them pushing the luxury tax.

Golden State has Adonal Foyal's expiring contract and a bit of cap space to play with but its the same story as the Clippers.

Memphis is aiming for the top of the lottery and they don't really have much to offer in a trade. They have a low cap number (51 million) so teams will be calling trying to convince them to take their payroll. Mayo is a poor man's Rip Hamilton by the way.

Minnesota is primed for the summer of Lebron (and everyone else) and probably will keep their expiring contracts. Their young guys are also finally starting to develop into competent players too. They do have several draft picks so they might be a player with those.

Ok City will be busy. They have plenty of expiring contracts teams will drool over (Chris Wilcox: 6.75 million, Donyell Marshall: 5.95, Desmond Mason: 5.3, Joe Smith: 4.795, Robert Swift: 3.579, and Saer Sene: (who? I know) 2.252). Thats 28.6 million in expiring contracts. Want to know where Marbury goes? Right here if they can get the money and players right. I can see the Thunder turning it down concerned Starbury will taint the youth of the team. If Durant shoots someone or ends up with a face tattoo like Tyson after the trade you know who to blame.

Sacramento could make some noise as well. At the end of the Eastern conference trade column I cite a trade that works like this:

Sacramento Kings: Marbury (expiring $20.8 million contract) and Mark Madsen (one year after this season around 2 million)

Wolves: Brad Miller (one year after this season at 12.25 Million)

Knicks: Jason Collins (expiring 6 million), Kenny Thomas (one  more year at 8.5), and Calvin Booth (expiring 1.14)

This or a trade without the Wolves will be the most likely trade to go down regarding Marbury. I include the wolves in the scenario because they can offer expiring contracts which NY would like more than having more salary on their books for next year.

Who'd I miss? I'll be back closer to the trade deadline with a list of plausible trades.

January 12, 2009  04:41 PM ET

The real question is does Donyell Marshall have the dream of playing for every NBA team?

 
January 12, 2009  04:43 PM ET

No team gets better in your three trade scenario involving the Kings, Knicks, and Wolves but it's a trade I would do just because of the contracts involved.

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