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Well, I'm back.  Apologies for my lengthy hiatus, but life happens and unbelievably, certain things more important than the Blazers came up.  Now we stand exactly at the halfway point of the Blazers season and things are still looking pretty good.  Now, without further ado, the Blazers midseason report:

Quick Summary

25-16 (2nd in NW Division, 6th in Western Conference)

Things are still going well for the Blazers.  The tough opening schedule is done with and they've made it through with a winning record.  The team continues to grow and has spurts and sputters along the way.  This team has both unexpected wins (against Boston on December 30th) and inexcusable losses (in OT to the Clippers).  Brandon Roy is still the undeniable star of this team, though he is able to rely on his teammates much more frequently and the team doesn't need 25 a night from him to win.  

Recently Portland has been fighting injuries and is only 5-4 so far in January, but is still only 2.5 back in the division.  Also interesting to note is that after 41 games last year Portland had this exact same record.  The difference between this year and last is A) the combined winning percentage of the remaining opponents is under .480 as opposed to the over .540 of the first 41 opponents and B) most of these players are a year more experienced and won't have the same slide as last year.

Player Grades

Point Guard:

Steve Blake-

11.6 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.1 SPG in 30.9 MPG

Blake was having the best season of his career right up to the team's worst loss of the season against Philly five games ago.  In that game Blake injured his shoulder and isn't expected back for three weeks at the earliest.  When healthy, Blake is a great compliment in the backcourt to Brandon Roy and has a great 2.97/1 ast/to ratio.

Blake also hits a high percentage of his deep shots (.434 from 3), limits mistakes, and runs the offense effectively.  His defense is still a liability, though now that he's been out I appreciate his ability to fight through screens on the pick-and-roll more.

Assuming he comes back healthy I just hope he keeps doing what he's been doing.  He won't win many games for the Blazers, but he won't cost them many either.  The one word for Blake is "steady."

Grade: B (basically the same guy he's been all year)

Sergio Rodriguez-

4.1 ppg, 3.4 apg, 1.5 rpg in 15.2 mpg

Sergio isn't the same player he was at the start of the year.  At first he looked like he might rival Blake for the starting position, but it's very clear at this point that he won't be doing that.  However, he has been starting with Blake out and has been okay, although he clearly isn't as good as Blake.

In Sergio's three starts with Blake out he hasn't exactly dazzled (6.3 ppg, 5.3 apg, 3.7 rpg on 36% shooting in 26 mpg).  In fact, one could argue that rookie Jerryd Bayless has outplayed him.  Sergio was supposed to have improved his shooting and defense, but it sure looks about the same to me (35% from the floor, terrible pick-and-roll defense that forces bigs to cover guards).  Unless he can pick it up in the next few games, he may be relegated to third string.

 Grade: C- (definitely regressed in the past month)

Jerryd Bayless-

4.6 ppg, 1.0 apg, 1.2 rpg in 11.4 mpg

It's hard to grade Bayless at this point.  He only saw spot duty and a ton of DNP-CPs for most of the season thus far, but with Blake out he's seen significant playing time and has made the most of it (14.7 ppg, 1.3 apg, 2.3 rpg on 59% shooting in 23.7 mpg).  His distribution skills are lacking, but he gets to the rim pretty easily.  He's outplayed Sergio on both ends of the floor and may well replace him as Blake's backup once Blake returns.

He can't jumpshoot well, can't pass well, and stalls the offense at times.  However, he looks much better than at the start of the season.  He got the best vote of confidence from Roy, who said "the kid's ready to play."  

Grade: C (haven't seen enough to grade him higher, but I love the upside)

Shooting Guard:

Brandon Roy-

22.3 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.8 rpg in 37.1 mpg

Roy is the best player for the Blazers, though as I mentioned earlier he isn't as relied upon as he was in late November and early December.  In that time span he had 30+ points in 5 of 6 games in one span, including a 52 point outburst in a comeback win against the Suns.  For a while he was mentioned in the same echelon as Wade, Kobe and Lebron.  I always thought that was too lofty, but Roy has certainly joined the Joe Johnson-Paul Pierce-Deron Williams level.

Roy did miss four games in late December and early January with a minor hamstring tweak, and though the team went 2-2 against quality competition without him their scoring dropped from  close to 99 ppg to just under 88 ppg.

Basically, this team goes as far Roy takes them right now.  The rest of the team is coming along, but Roy is already there.

Grade: A (a shoo-in as a coach's choice for All-Star and the leader of the team)

Rudy Fernandez-

11.0 ppg, 2.1 apg, 3.1 rpg in 26.5 mpg

I'll come out and say it: I expected more out of Rudy.  Outside the three point line he's good (39.4%), and from the line he's great (90.1%), but inside the line he isn't reliable (42% from inside the arc), and his highly touted passing results in almost as many turnovers (1.3 per game) as assists (2.1).  Furthermore, his defense is lacking and there is also the fact that he seems tired and may have hit a bit of a wall.

Nonetheless, he's a double-digit scorer off the bench and can fly.  In fact, he's just been voted into the dunk contest, though I don't know how well he will do there.  He's still good, just not as good as I hoped for.

Grade: B- (good shooter but needs to learn to do more inside the arc)

Small Forward:

Nicolas Batum-

4.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.0 apg in 17.6 mpg

Batum is still doing very well and is the biggest surprise on the team.  He's made 36 consecutive starts in a season where he wasn't expected to do anything outside of the D-League.  What's more is that most would agree he is the best on-ball defender the team has.  He also runs the fastbreak great and finished well at the rim.

The downside is that he won't make more than half of his open shots and basically none  of the covered ones.  I don't expect much more out of him this year because I don't believe I can want more out of a 19-year-old that wasn't expected to play.

Grade: C (a bit of a regression in shooting from before, but still a great contributor)

Travis Outlaw-

11.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.0 apg in 27.1 mpg

Outlaw is basically the same guy as last year, just getting fewer shot because Rudy is also a great scorer off the bench.  He can nearly singlehandedly lead this team to victory (33 points, 7 boards vs. Chicago) or nearly singlehandedly cost this team victory (8 points on 3-10 shooting and a dismal +/- of -23 against Philly two days later).

The nice thing about Outlaw is that he is versatile, quick, and big enough to be both a backup 4 and backup 3 and is equally good at either spot.  However, he is a black hole on offense no matter where he plays and still settles for the outside shot when he should go inside.  His rebounding is slightly better than before, but his defense is just as poor as before.

In the second half I hope Outlaw is either 1) more aggressive attacking the rim, 2) more reliable on defense, or 3) traded for someone who will do 1 or 2.

Grade: B- (a good bench player that should be better)

Martel Webster-

Poor Webster is enduring a lost season.  He's out until the All-Star break at least and has played only 5 minutes this year.  This is the guy who was poised to break out, or at least contribute on the same level as he did last year (10.1 ppg on 39% three point shooting).  He'd be a great fit in this offense and defense, but it looks like at best he'll be at full strength in time for a late playoff push and possibly won't even play until the playoffs.

 Grade: INC (so sad...)

Power Forward:

Lamarcus Aldridge-

17.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.05 bpg in 36.2 mpg

This is the Aldridge I was hoping to see.  His season numbers aren't that great, but he's gotten better with each passing month (15.8 and 6.7 on 45% shooting in November, 18.6 and 6.6 on 49.8% shooting in December, 19.2 and 7.8 on 51.5% shooting so far in January, stats thanks to Jason Quick).  He's also the only Blazer to start all 41 games and is tied for the team lead in both steal and blocks.

Aldridge is probably the best all around defender on the team while simultaneously being the second best scoring option on the team who stepped up as the leader when Roy was out with injury.  He equally takes it down low to score and hits the 17 footer on the pick-and-pop.  

I'd still like to see Aldridge crash the boards more and have a fiery demeanor more often.  However, against Kevin Garnett and the Celtics Aldridge went toe to toe (and almost blow to blow) with KG and came out on top, both individually and with the team.

Grade: A- (not a star yet, but well on the way)

Channing Frye-

4.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg in 11.9 mpg

Without question Frye has been the biggest disappointment thus far for Portland.  He had every chance to be a significant contributor in the rotation and played himself right out of it.  At the start of the season I said for him to be a part of the team he needed to rebound and defend and he's done neither.  In fact, his main strength (shooting) has also been absent (38.9% from the floor).

I really doubt that Frye will be able to return to the rotation barring injury.  He's a nice guy, but being nice doesn't earn victories.  I expect him to be dealt by the deadline for a backup PF that can get boards and play defense.

Grade: F (has all the tools to be good and simply won't utilize them)

Ike Diogu-

1.5 ppg, .9 rpg in 4.1 mpg

Diogu had a bit of a window to be the backup PF as Frye was playing himself out of the rotation.  Ike showed he can hustle and rebound okay, but struggles to even his a layup.  If there was some way to combine Frye's scoring ability with Diogu's hustle and rebounding there would be a decent backup PF in Portland.

As is, Outlaw has largely assumed the duties of backup PF, and while he has done so with success he doesn't have the build to be a bruiser or defender like one would like a backup PF to be.

Grade: D (he fits the mold better than Frye but still kinda sucks)

Center:

Joel Przybilla-

5.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.0 bpg in 22.3 mpg

Outside of Batum, Przybilla has been the most pleasant surprise for Portland thus far.  As Greg Oden goes through rookie struggles, Joel has stepped up his game to cover and is the best center on this team much of the time.  Przybilla is a great post defender (tied for the team lead in blocks) and a reliable rebounder (leads the team).  His offense is better than in year past in that he knows when NOT to shoot, which is basically everything that isn't a putback or open dunk.  His field goal percentage is still above 70%, mostly because he only take sure shots.

Oden is a better offensive weapon night in and night out and much of the time a better defender and rebounder.  However, when Joel is in the game you KNOW what you will get.  The same can't be said for Oden.

Grade: B+ (has been the best center on the team over the course of the year)

Greg Oden-

8.3 ppg, 7.00 rpg, 1.1 bpg in 22.7 mpg

Well, I was all ready to come here and berate Oden and then he goes and puts up 24 and 15 with 2 blocks and 2 steals against the Bucks.  Now I feel almost guilty pointing out his flaws after such a breakout performance.  Still, one game only shows what a player can do, while a season shows what they actually do.  

Oden is a headscratcher.  He leads Portland in double-doubles and blocks per game while standing second in rebounding.  He also is more of an offensive threat than his stats indicate and often is fouled when down on the low block so opponents can avoid getting dunked on.  He also converts his free throws at  decent rate for a big man (63%).

All that being said, Oden is severely lacking in several areas.  For one, on offense he is very limited in the post.  He turns it over with travels or poor dribble moves and has airballed hook shots on more than one occaision.  On defense he slaps at the ball too much and commits a lot of dumb fouls after being beat by an opponent, leading to both foul trouble and a lot of and-one chances for opponents.

The thing about Oden is you never know what you're getting.  One day it's 13 and 12 against Boston or 17 and 13 against Chicago, and the next its 5 and 1 against New York or 8 and 2 against Philly.  Much of the past three weeks have been spent in fould trouble and he struggles playing with fouls.

I still say it's safe to expect him to be a 10 and 10 player in the second half, but it seems more and more apparent he's more of the Dikembe Mutombo mold than the Patrick Ewing mold.

 Grade: C+ (needs more confidence and consistency)

Raef Lafrenz-

Has not played, but that expiring contract sure looks tasty with the whole Darius Miles fiasco.

Three Team Strengths

1. Spreading the wealth:

While Roy will most likely lead the team scoring night in and night out and Aldridge will likely be #2, any number of guys can step up on any given night.  Sometimes Oden has his good game, sometimes Rudy is stroking from deep, and sometimes they double Roy which allows Blake to run free.  Basically, there are a LOT of different ways that this team can kill you.  Even if Roy is off, as he was against the Bucks, enough guys can be on their A or B game to earn a victory.  

2. Increasing tougness:

For a long time I saw this team as soft, lacking an enforcer.  I believe the turning point was the Boston game.  In the previous game against the Celtics the defending champs pushed Portland around and intimidated them all game.  When Boston came to Portland they tried the same tactics and failed.  KG tried slapping at Aldridge all game and LA responded by both hitting back (earning a double-T to the delight of the crowd) and by outplaying Garnett down the stretch.  Oden also sent Ray Allen flying into the stands and Outlaw played physical defense all day on Paul Pierce.  It added up to a win without Roy against the champs, and ever since then the Blazers may have lost at times, but not pushed around.

3. Roy:

I actually didn't think Roy would improve, because players that go to all four years of college don't improve much after their sophomore years.  Roy instead has taken yet another step, upping his scoring by another 3 points a game over last year while facing constant double teams in crunch time.  Roy also has become one of the better clutch scorers in the game.  He runs the offense and often guards the opposition's best wing player with positive results.  Roy has become the kind of guy that could be an MVP candidate in a few years if the Blazers are a top team, the whole "best player on the best team" vote.

Three Team Weaknesses

1. Playing down to the competition:

For every great victory, like the Boston victory or the miracle against Houston, there is a massive letdown, such as the OT losses to Charlotte and the Clippers.  Being such a young team probably leads to these bonehead losses, but Portland needs to get past this tobecome a contender in the West.  Especially this season, where much of the second half is against lower-level teams.  Portland has to bring it every night because they can't afford to slump against the weaker competition if they hope to end their playoff drought.

2. Pick-and-Roll defense:

While overall as a defensive squad Portland does rather well for a young team, their defense of the most basic pick-and-roll offenses is atrocious.  About 3/4 of the time they switch without switching back, leaving something like Oden guarding Andre Miller and Sergio on Samuel Dalembert (this largely led to the ridiculous loss to the 76ers).  McMillan's excuse is that "you don't stop the pick-and-roll" in the NBA, which is a pretty dumb reason.  Even if you can't stop it (not true) you should at least try.

All the switching is what's leading to the fould trouble against Oden a lot of the time because he obviously can't stay in front of PGs in the NBA and winds up fouling them.  Something has to be done about this poor excuse of defense or Portland will be shredded by elite teams in the NBA.

3. Interior offense:

Though this problem isn't as great as is was earlier, Portland still needs to utilize the post offense more.  Oden is very capable when he established position, where he will either be fouled or take a quick drop step and have a close shot.  Aldridge can also score from the pivot very well, but it seems like both he and the rest of the team prefer him out a bit farther.  Portland is only 18th in the NBA in free throws and a lot of that is because they won't get it inside.  The closer you are to the basket, the easier it is to score.

Overall Team Grade

Well, they were 13-6 after 19 games but have only gone 12-10 since then, so it's safe to say they aren't as good as they were in the start.  That's odd given how tough the opening schedule was, but in the past 20 games or so they've had injury issues and still played very good teams.

For a while there they relied too much on Roy, but seem to have avoided that since his injury because they realized they didn't need him scoring 30 to win.  Portland definitely learned a lot the past several weeks and upcoming schedule is much easier than it has been the past two weeks. 

The Blazers are still young and learning and their weaknesses have been fished out and exposed, but they are adjusting and all the way they've kept themselves above .500.

Grade: B (not a contender yet but they are a quality team with playoff hopes)

Predictions Review

- I predicted Roy would be a reserve for the All-Star game and it still seems like that's the case.  If he doesn't go, there is no such thing as an All-Star.

- I said KP would be the exec of the year and Nate would be in the running for Coach of the Year.  It's too early to call for KP, but it doesn't look like Nate will be winning COY, not with the job Spagnolo is doing in Miami.  

- My prediction of Oden, Rudy, and Batum all making the rookie-sophomore game looks spot on.  Maybe Batum won't make it, but Rudy and Oden are shoe-ins

- I said Oden would have a 20-20 game by the All-Star break.  It's still possible, but I'm not as confident about that prediction anymore.  At least he pulled a 20-15 out thus far.

- I predicted that Batum's steady play would force the trade of either Outlaw or Frye.  I don't believe Batum will force anyone to be traded, but it still looks like Frye is not going to be a Blazer for much longer.  I'm much less eager to see Outlaw go now than I was earlier in the year though.

- I predicted Portland would be a top four team in the West until February.  That has already been busted as they currently sit sixth, though they are a mere 1.5 games out of that 4th spot.  I can live with being off by 1.5 games over the course of 22.

A Few New Predictions

- Lamarcus Aldridge will post 18 and 8 or better over the 2nd half of the season

- Greg Oden will continue to be maddeningly inconsistent, but will still finish close to 10 and 10

- Jerryd Bayless will overtake Sergio as the backup PG, but not Blake as the starter

- Martell Webster will not be a consistent contributor this year

- Portland will have a winning record in every month for the rest of the season

- Some combination of Frye, Sergio, Raef Lafrenz, and/or Outlaw will be traded

 Re-revised Final Record Prediction

50-32, 6th seed in the West.  I don't know if Portland can make it out of the first round without home court advantage and I doubt they will get that.  However, I think they will give any team they face a good series.

P.S. I normally proof read these things, but it's 4:30 AM and I'm **** tired.  Hope it's legible enough to follow...