FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Good lord I'm tired already.  It's only 1 AM, this shift isn't over for another eight hours.  This could possibly be the least gramatically correct blog I've ever done because it is just a struggle to stay awake.  Wish me luck, becuase if I fall asleep I get fired.

Week in Review:

2-1 (27-17 overall)

The week started off with the Blazers hosting the Cavs.  At the time Portland had been alternating wins and losses for five games.  Portland came out slow and Lebron came out hot, and Cleveland shot out to an early lead.  Nate McMillan hoped Greg Oden could build on his outburst against the Bucks, but it wasn't meant to be- Oden fouled out with 10 points and 8 boards.  Roy and Aldridge, with 23 and 21 points respectively, did enough to keep Portland close in the 4th but Lebron (34 points and 14 assists) and Mo Williams (season-high 33 points) made the plays down the stretch to pull out a 104-98 win.  The defining stat was Portland's shooting (40.3%) against Clevelands (53.1%).  Hard to beat a top team in the NBA when they outshoot you by 13%.

Following the Cleveland game there was some grumbling amongst the fans about how Portland was slipping again following a good start, the way they did last year.  The Blazers also had two days off after the game, giving everyone plenty of time to blow things out of proportion.  There were plenty of "fire Nate, "bench Oden," and "trade (insert name here)" calls.  Nothing like a game against the Wizards to cure what ailes you.

Against Washington Portland started slow and the game was ugly.  The Blazers led 39-31 at the half, but then caught fire in the second.  Oden was all over the glass, grabbing 14 rebounds including 9 offensive to go with his 18 points.  Aldridge continued his solid play with 18 points and 8 rebounds.  But the story of the game was Roy, who finally shook off his shooting slump in the second half and finished with the strong stat line of 22 points, 7 assist, 5 rebounds, and a career-high 10 steals.  Once Portland picked it up Washington couldn't keep up and the Blazers rolled to a 100-87 win.  The victory put the Blazers nine games over .500, which has been a bit of a cursed number recently.  This was the eighth time in the past two seasons that Portland had been nine games over .500, and in the previous seven they were 0-7.

Two days later the Blazers took a trip to LA to play the mighty Clippers who were sans Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman, Baron Davis, and Marcus Camby.  Surprisingly the Clippers didn't roll over and die and were in fact up by one after a massive Eric Gordon dunk on Aldridge late in the third quarter.  However, Roy (who finished with 33 points on 11-15 shooting) came down on the very next possession and hammered perhaps the best dunk of his career over the 7'1" Cheikh Samb, whoever that is.  That sparked a 12-0 Portland run, and from there on they cruised to a 113-88 win to move to ten games over .500 for the first time since the 2002-03 season.

Three Things I Liked:

1.  Oden's increased minutes and production:

Don't look now, but in his past four games Oden is averaging 17 points and 11 boards in 31 minutes.  Yes, this can be partially attributed to a lack of post defense by his opponents.  However, it is also largely because he is finally committing fewer dumb fouls (still 4 a game, but only in foul trouble against the Cavs).  He moves his feet and keeps his arms up on defense. 

When Oden gets his minutes he produces.  He's played 30+ minutes in 11 games this season and has scored in double figured in every one while posting a double double in nine of them.  There are still frustrating mistakes, but for the past week they have been much more limited. 

When the season began GM Kevin Pritchard predicted we wouldn't see the real Greg Oden until the All-Star break as he recovered from surgery.  To this point Oden has really only shown flashes, but it seems that Greg may but actually rounding in to form, which can only help a Portland playoff push.

2.  McMillan's adjustments:

I've been nothing but impressed with how well Nate has juggled a loaded but young rotation this year.  I'm even more impressed with how he's done inserting the right players when somebody goes down with an injury.  He made the right call putting Nic Batum in at small forward instead of the more highly touted Travis Outlaw, and when Blake went down he kept Sergio Rodriguez in as the starter despite some strong games from Jerryd Bayless.  Sergio clearly is a more consistent player and fits better with the starting unit, and Bayless does a nice job providing a spark off the bench when he's on.

3.  Sergio and Bayless balancing out:

Along those lines, in Blake's absence the Blazers a decisively weak at the point.  The choice is either the slick passing, non shooting Spaniard or the hard charging, poor passing rookie.   Both are really good at what they are good at (passing for Sergio, driving the lane for Bayless) and both are pretty bad at what they are not good at (scoring of any sort of Sergio, running an offense for Bayless).  However, as a combo they do pretty well.

Sergio fits well in the starting unit because he allows Roy to play his natural 2 guard position, while Bayless off the bench largely fills the Jarret Jack role from last year.  Admittedly I would rather have Blake starting than either of them, but as a combo they provide a nice band-aid to the problem until Blake recovers, whenever that may be.

Three Things I Didn't Like:

1.  Jay Jensen:

Okay, I started out high on Jensen, the Blazers trainer.  At the start of the year he had Oden ready to go on time, Channing Frye back ahead of schedule, and Martell Webster on track to make a speedy recovery.

Now he is a complete goat.  Oden got injured about six minutes after his return due to improper weight training that led to him being too big for his legs.  He's just getting into a more healthy weight now, when he really could have been kept in the same relative shape during his entire recovery.  Webster has played a total of five minutes this year because Jensen told him he could come back early, and Webster rebroke his foot.  Now the projected starting small forward isn't expected to be running until March.  Roy's hamstring was supposed to be a one game max thing, but Jensen cleared him to practice early and Roy reaggravated the hammy, missing the next four games.  And now Steve Blake, out for the past five games with a dislocated shoulder, was cleared by Jensen to come back early against the Clippers and (surprise!) reinjured the shoulder and is out for another two games.  See a pattern here?

2. Same old issues:

Lack of perimeter defense, lack of interior offense.  These are the two biggest things that will be Portland's undoing, either making them miss the playoffs or, more likely, ousting them.  Oden coming on has opened up the inside game a bit, though the perimeter game is weak as ever.  Nobody is expected to contain Lebron, but allowing Mo Williams to hit 30+ along with Lebron going off will kill you much of the time.  

Bayless, Batum, Outlaw, and Roy all have the ability to be good indivual defenders but they lack rotation and communication as a unit.  This surely is due to the youth of the team (youngest in the league minus Raef, who is on the IR).  While their defensive yield looks good on paper at 94 points allowed per game, that is more a product of their pace than of their actual defensive performance; their per-100 possessions opponents scoring ranks 20th in the NBA (although the offense ranks 3rd).  

3.  Lack on consistency from the bench:

Okay, Portland's bench runs pretty deep and has some legit talent on top.  Both Outlaw and Rudy would be starters on more than half of the teams around the NBA.  Bayless and Sergio both would start for a handful of teams, as would Przybilla.

The problem is that from game to game none of those players can be relied upon to bring a strong performance.  Rudy will go off for 20 one night and follow it up with a 1-8 performance.  Ditto for Outlaw.  Sergio will sometimes look like a poor-man's Steve Nash and other times like a poor-man's Sebastian Telfair.  Bayless has a legit excuse as he's a rookie, but the fact remain that he is consistently inconsistent.

Also of Note:

More Greg Oden talk.  Last week I pointed out how Lamarcus Aldridge has improved with every passing month, I've just failed to notice that Oden has been doing the same thing.  I honestly though that Oden played better in November than he did in December, but it seems I was wrong:

November- 6.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg

December- 8.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg

January- 10.4 ppg, 6.7 rpg

And, as I previously said, he has 17 and 11 in his last 4.  It's been previously mentioned that a big cause of Oden's struggles have been in his head and his recent success is bound to be good for his psyche.  He has a real measuring stick in the upcoming week: games against Utah, Dallas, and New Orleans will give us a better gauge on how much he's progressed.  

Token Non-Blazer Thought:

I have to say, I'm not feeling this Jermain O'Neal-Shawn Marion trade that has been floating around.  It doesn't make sense for Miami.  They aren't going to be contending for the title this year or next, but with Marion they are in position to have cap flexibility after this year.  Adding O'Neal won't do them much of any good- O'Neal is just a 13 and 7 guy with Toronto and seems more or less washed up.  By comparison Udonis Haslem, the current "center" in Miami, averages 11 and 8 and won't eat up the cap for two more years.

The Heat do need to add size before they can really contend for a title again, but I think the only reason to do the O'neal trade would be in a panic move to try to convince Wade to stay.  I don't think Wade is going anywhere since the Heat have are above .500 and have some pieces to build on in Haslem, Mario Chalmers, and Michael Beasley.

I'm sure Toronto would love this trade, but Miami really shouldn't do it.  A trade involving Marion for Sacramento's Brad Miller is the only one that makes any real sense.  If that deal doesn't happen then Miami should just Marion's expire.

The Week Ahead:

Today the Blazers tip off a week that should help them establish their position in the West.  The warmup comes today against the Bobcats, who downed Portland in overtime five games ago.  Portland will be without Blake for this one, but both Sergio and Bayless did well last time around.  What cost Portland the game before was some dismal free throw shooting (51%).  I wouldn't count on that happening again.  Charlotte is a good matchup, but the game is in Portland and the Blazers will exact revenge.

The real challenge begins Saturday against Utah, who have won the first two meeting this season.  Both games were in Salt Lake, which may be the toughest place to win besides Cleveland.  This next one is in Portland, and Utah is struggling with injuries.  Carlos Boozer is still out (though Paul Millsap is probably a better PF anyway) and Andrei Kirilenko is also expected to be out.  With the momentum Portland has going and the struggles Utah is enduring, Portland will win this one as well.

The week concludes with a road game in New Orleans.  The Hornets currently lead the series 2-1, so this game carries a lot of weight should the two teams finish with the same record.  Chris Paul has been his usual amazing self, but both David West and Tyson Chandler are fighting injuries as of late.  If both are healthy Hornets should win, if they aren't the Blazers should.  It's a coin flip, and those go to home teams now (I just changed it).  Thus, I say the Hornets win this one.

Parting Thought:

I am so damn tired of those fans that blame losses on refs.  I finally hit my limit after the Cavs game, when perhaps 1 out of 10 Blazers fans were saying the refs cost them the game when Portland outshot Cleveland 33-15 at the line.  I troll other teams' boards from time to time after Portland beats them (though I never comment) and I never see them complain as much as Portland fans do.

I can understand the thinking- you don't want to admit that your team has major flaws and the refs make a nice third party to blame.  A ref may in fact make a bad call or two, but unless one of those bad calls comes in the last ten seconds of a one possession game a ref is not responsible for the outcome, the team is.