People can argue all day whether it's smart or not to trade for Matt Cassell. But only one team has to think it's smart for it to happen. In this post I'm going to lay out what I think the value of that trade should be for the Patriots.
The most recent trade for a starting QB was when the Texans traded for Matt Schaub. At the time, Schaub had only started 2 games for the Falcons. The terms of the trade were these:
Falcons give up #10 pick in first round
Texans give up #8 pick in first round
Texans give up # 8 pick in second round
Texans give up 2nd round pick in the following year.
To determine the total value of the trade I'll use the standard NFL draft value chart, found here: http://www.degnan.org/dolphins/draftvaluechart.htm
The falcons gave up the 10th pick (1300 pts) for the 8th pick (1500 pts) for a net gain of 200 pts.
They got Houston's 2nd round pick (510 pts)
They got Houston's 2nd rounder the next year, which is usually discounted by one round since it's a year later. A mid 3rd rounder has a value of about 200 pts.
That's a total of 910 points. 910 points is roughly equal to the 20th pick in the first round (900 pts).
As I mentioned, Schaub had started 2 games at the time of the trade. Cassell played an entire season at a solid level. His value is clearly higher than Schaub's was at the time of the Atlanta-Houston trade.
So the trade value for Cassell should be somewhere above 900 points -- how far above depends on how much better you think Cassell is than Schaub was after 2 starts.
Since that's a tough comparison to make, let's think about it this way. What if Brady didn't get hurt until the end of the 14th game, then Cassell came on and only started 2 games, playing pretty well and showing some promise. Now compare that to watching him over 16 games. How much more sure are you that Cassell is the real deal having seen 16 games than if he'd only played 2?
I'd argue that the Cassell who showed consistency over 16 games is worth significantly more than the one who only played 2. I'd give an extra second rounder for the guy who showed it over 16 games.
A mid 2nd round pick is worth 400 points. To me, that means Cassell's value is about 1300 points. That's equal to the 10th pick in the draft.
But assuming that you buy the argument that Cassell is worth more than Schaub was at the time of the trade, Cassell would be worth at least the 19th pick, and possibly as high as the 10th. So depending on the trading partner and how they value Cassell, you're looking at a mid 1st round pick somewhere between 10 and 19, probably closer to the 10 than the 19.
When you look at this trade value figure, it helps put in perspective possible trading partners. Start with 'who needs a QB?' Detroit, KC, SF (maybe), Buffalo, Jets, Chicago, Tampa (maybe), Minnesota. Not all of them have the same need, but there's at least the potential.
Off the top, eliminate the Jets. Can't see that happening. SF and Buffalo are in a good position to trade at the #10 and #11 spots. It could be a straight 1 for 1 swap, the pick for Cassell. Essentially Cassell becomes their first round pick.
For Chicago and Tampa it's tougher with the #18 and #19 picks respectively. Picks are worth 950 and 925. If you stick to 1200-1300 as the value, they'd likely have to give up their 1st AND 2nd round picks, maybe getting a 4th or 5th rounder back from the Pats. The Vikes, who would seem to benefit a lot from the trade since they have a lot of pieces in place, have the 22nd pick, worth only 850 points. They'd be looking at giving up their 1st and 2nd pick, plus maybe having to throw in a late rounder. That would be tough to pull the trigger on. So in my book, CHI, TB, and MIN are not likely trade partners.
Detroit would seem to have the easiest time since they hold both the 1st and 20th picks. Obviously detroit has many needs, but none bigger than QB. They could draft a QB at #1, then still own the 20th and 33rd picks (#1 in 2nd round). Or they could trade their 20th and 33rd to the Patriots for Cassell and the Patriots 2nd rounder, #58 overall. So your choice is a Rookie QB plus the 20th and 33rd, or Cassell and #1 and #58. The value of #1 and #58 is MUCH higher than 20th and 33rd -- seems like a good trade on both sides.
KC could make an interesting offer and give up the #3 overall pick for Cassell and the Patriots #23 overall pick. I'm not sure the Patriots would look favorably on that trade, but the points work out.
My final point would be that some teams might try to take advantage of Bellichick's known desire to stockpile picks. Instead of offering this year's first rounder, a team could consider giving up a 2nd or 3rd rounder this year, and next year's first round pick. Once you take future years into consideration, pretty much anything becomes possible.
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Comments (10) Add A Comment
This all works as long as Cassell doesn't get a franchise tag. If he does, that moves him up to the "avg of the top 5"...which for computation purposes can be figured as #3. That would throw the numbers used in your argument completely out the window.
Casssell came in at #10 on the quarterback rating list. That was with the Patriots. A team that was 17-0 (reg season) the year before. Would Cassell be as effective on a team that was 11-5 or 10-6 the year before?
I like the argument and the logic here...and I can agree with it all if all the presumptions hold true. Too many possibilities that make the presumptions, at least a couple, too likely to occur.
I see Cassell going for less, or not going at all.
TheDoctor-Is-In
Total Comments (88)
I don't think the franchise tag has anything to do with his trade value. Whatever team traded for him would negotiate a long term deal, thus negating the franchise price (which is about 14.6 million for one year).
In this post I wasn't trying to argue that he would or wouldn't go -- just what I think he would go for if he did go.
For the next few weeks, at least until the combine, a lot of what I post is going to be based on presumptions. As we get more information about the draft class, team needs, and free agent moves, I'll try to get more specific.
Thanks for the comment -- made me think.
mike_m235
Apo, AE
Total Comments (782)
People completely misunderstand how the Franchise tag works. The tag guarantees that should the player fail to get any other deal he gets a one year avg of the top five at his position. It also allows another team to sign him (if the Patriots do not call him exclusive franchise which I would put at a snowballs chance in hell). If another team signs him straight up they give the Patriots two first rounders. This does not, however negate the potential for the Patriots to sign Cassel to a multi-year deal and subsequently trade him.
The only significant potential negative repercussions are if Cassel signed the one year tender immediately. In general players do not like one year deals. It screws them hard. If an injury or other unforeseen circumstance comes up they can just end up out of a job. With a multi-year players have a fair amount more leverage, as cutting a player has cap ramifications. I would see Cassel signing a one-year only in dire circumstances. I cannot imagine that coming to pass.
Grachuus
Westford , MA
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By the way Mike_m235 you have provided an element of insight that is lacking from most persons. I appreciate it.
Grachuus
Westford , MA
Total Comments (309)
The only thing that really makes a difference here is the recent ballooning of the rookie salaries. This has led a fair number of teams to increase their value on mid picks 10-14 and decrease their value on high picks. High pick players have better tools but end up being a larger risk. The lower drafted players cost less and tend to not take for granted their place on the food chain.
Grachuus
Westford , MA
Total Comments (309)
That's a very good point. I've heard it said that picks 7-12 now offer the best value of 'still get a good player' and reasonable price. Personally, just from observation, I believe the Patriots place a lot of value on low first round and high second round picks. I don't have anything to support that, though. My gut feel is that they'd let Cassell go for a pick in the low teens or high 20s. But again, nothing to back that up.
mike_m235
Apo, AE
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I think the biggest price setting will come from the other 31. I can't imagine that there will not be interest from multiple teams. The level of interest will determine his market value. I would not be surprised to see Detroit with two 1s this year do some finagling with the Patriots and just sign him out. Sticky situation but I could see in a strange twist that hte Patriots give their first rounder to another team so they can sign Cassel and then they get their pick and the other teams pick back. This would eliminate the Cap ramifications for the Patriots and they still get some undisclosed number of choices. Imagine say the Pats giving their first for a second and fifth and then the deal occuring.
Grachuus
Westford , MA
Total Comments (309)
I'm not sure what you're saying there about the Pats giving their pick to another team to avoid cap ramifications. Drafting at #23, there's not much cap hit for their first round pick. And they've got the space to franchse Cassell, no matter what. The only thing signing Cassell will hurt is their ability to extend some of their 2009 free agents and their ability to go after other big name free agents. But I may just be confused with what you're saying. If you're saying the Pats might give up their pick and Cassell for a higher pick -- like say the Chiefs' -- I think that's possible, although unlikely.
mike_m235
Apo, AE
Total Comments (782)
Unless the Patriots call their player exclusive rights franchise then other teams may bid for his services. The deal is that doing so requires said other organization must give up two first round picks. This means the Patriots can avoid any cap hits even if another organization is unwilling to pay the full price. They could acquire other things for their first rounder and then they'd just get it right back.
Grachuus
Westford , MA
Total Comments (309)
The Pats franchised him. So now if another team wants to make an offer, they have to give up two first rounders to the Pats. I think that's very unlikely. Much easier to make the Pats a trade offer.
mike_m235
Apo, AE
Total Comments (782)
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