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It's that time of year again: trading season.  Every possible and impossible deal is flying through the rumor mill.  It's getting to the point that Amare Stoudamire for Michael Beasley and filler sounds feasible and even realistic.  Once again Portland finds itself in the middle of many potential swaps.  There's several reasons why, and several potential deals out there.  However, Portland has to be careful.  I'll highlight a few potential trades I like and dislike, as well as a few trades that I came up with (thank you ESPN.com trade machine).  But first...

Week in Review

1-2 (31-19 overall, 4th in the West)

This was one of the worst three game stretches the team has had this season.  Dating back to the close win against New Orleans, Portland has be marred by terrible perimeter and transition defense along with some poor shot selection at key points in games.  The fanbase has been in an uproar, calling for everything from firing the coach to trading Lamarcus Alridge to benching Brandon Roy.  After all, the Blazers were a Chris Paul groin pull and Knicks meltdown away from a four game losing streak.  We Blazers fans have been spoiled and sometimes forget the youth and inexperience on the team.

Against Dallas the Blazers played okay in the 1st but had their bad stretch for about eight minutes in the second and the Mavs outscored them 30-16 in the period on the way to a 104-99 win.  Portland made a bit of a comeback in the 4th, but weren't within five until the final minute and the game was basically decided.  Roy played well with 26 points and 7 rebounds, while Lamarcus Aldridge added 21 and 5.  For the Mavs the biggest not is that Jason Kidd had 10 assists to move him into 4th on the all-time list.  Congrats to Jason Kidd, just wish it hadn't happened against my team.

Redemption was supposed to come against the Soni...er...Thunder in the first matchup between the two teams.  I believe the Blazer thought the game would be a walkover and they were right- Oklahoma City walked all over them.  Once again Portland played terrible transition defense and when they did stop the break Kevin Durant (you know, the guy Portland chose Oden over) would swoop past Travis Outlaw on his way to 31 points.  On the other end the Blazers were disjointed and didn't get into a flow until the game was basically out of sight.  In the first quarter the Thunder scored 37 points, and in the second the Blazers only managed 15 en route to a 60-40 halftime deficit.  Portland wouldn't get within 8 the rest of the way and lost 102-93.

The Blazers returned home with their spirits low and tails between their legs.  The good news was the next game was against the Knicks, who had already lost three in a row.  More good news was that Portland got to play at home.  Portland led by nine at halftime and as many as 13 in the third.  Then things unraveled yet again in a perfect storm of badness.  Not only did the Blazers fall into their usual routine of bad defense and poor shot selection, but the Knicks caught on fire from downtown and Travis Outlaw went in to full Gunner mode but couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.  In nine minutes the Knicks went on a 37-7 run (I wish that was a misprint) to go up by 17 with eight minutes to go.  Then Outlaw, still in full Gunner mode, began hitting and Greg Oden did a great job of playing goalie (three blocks and countless other altered shots in the quarter), and Portland clawed back to trail 108-107 with 4.3 left.  After a timeout Brandon Roy took the inbounds pass, drove the lane, and converted a tough finger roll as time expired for a 109-108 come-from-behind-from-ahead win.  For the game Oden had 17 points, 12 rebounds, and a career high 6 blocks while Outlaw scored 23 and Roy added 19 and 8 assists.

Even the win against the Knicks had the feel of a loss because of the 37-7 run, and it's clear that Portland needs a break and a change in defensive philosophy.  Good thing is that a break is coming up this weekend (for most of the team).  Bad news is that there probably won't be a change in defensive philosophy any time soon.  Young teams tend to struggle on defense and love jump shooting, so that's largely what I chalk these terrible runs up to.  As they mature they'll learn to work the post more often and, oh, I don't know, run back on defense.

The Week Ahead

Portland only plays two games this week due to the All-Star game and both are very winnable.  First is Wednesday at home against the Thunder.  I'd like to think that Portland is better prepared than last time, but I'm not so sure.  The Thunder are also playing much better since the New Year and Kevin Durant is quickly becoming a premiere player in this league.  All that being said, the Blazers are ready this time and want retribution.  Also, the game's at the Garden.  If Portland doesn't win this one, there are serious problems in the Rose City, but I highly doubt they'll let this one slip away.

The following night they travel to the Bay to play the Warriors.  Last time Portland traveled to Oakland they lost a close game, but Oden had one of his better games as a pro.  This game is the second of a back-to-back for Portland and I really think they'll be looking ahead to the break.  I hate to say it, but I think Portland loses a game they really shouldn't here.  Still, even if they do they enter the break winning 7 of their last 10, which is much better than last year's 3-11 streak enterting the All-Star weekend.

After the Warriors game most of the Blazers will go their seperate ways but Roy, Oden, and Rudy Fernandez will travel to Phoenix for the All-Star festivities.  Oden and Rudy play in the Rookie-Sophomore game on Friday and I will be looking for Rudy make some flashy plays and Oden to NOT GET HURT whilst the rookies get killed as always.  Then on Saturday Rudy will attempt to keep up with Dwight Howard, Rudy Gay, and Nate Robinson in the dunk contest.  Rudy will probably break out a very unique dunk involving some soccer moves, but I highly doubt he has a large enough dunk arsenal to even make the finals.  Then on Sunday Brandon Roy returns to the All-Star game and looks to play as well as he did last year (18 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists).  After the All-Star game the next game is the following Wednesday against the Grizzlies, so Portland will take the time to rest and hopefully remember what defense is.

Trading Season

There have been many trade rumors involving Portland in the past few weeks, and for good reason.  The Blazers have several strong trading chips and it's no secret they'd like to add a veteran for a playoff push.  However, there have been some ridiculous proposals by both common fans and media buffs alike.  It's important to note that though GM Kevin Pritchard is an aggressive trader, he's never made a notable midseason trade and is openly reluctant to do so.  Therefore, every speculated trade should be taken with an extra grain of salt because Pritchard may not want to damage the team's chemistry and because the team is so young it's difficult to determine just what exactly each player brings to the table just yet.

First off, there has been a pretty hefty debate about how is "touchable" and who isn't.  Bottom line, Portland only has two untouchables: Brandon Roy and Greg Oden.  Roy is untouchable for obvious reasons: he's the heart and soul of the team and while there are a couple of better players out there the disruption it would cause the team to lose him isn't worth the talent of the incoming player.  Greg Oden is untradable because he still has the potential to be a franchise center, and those are too rare to trade away.  Everyone else, for the right price, is tradable. 

Players like Aldridge, Rudy, and Bayless would require something just short of a franchise player in return because they are young with high ceilings that are expected to be part of a championship core.  Aldridge has a very shot at becoming the top offensive and defensive player on this team, Bayless looks like he should be the point guard of the future, and Rudy is that quality 6th man every good team needs.  These guys could only be traded for perennial All-Stars and are very unlikely to go.

The next tier down is Steve Blake, Joel Przybilla, Martell Webster, and Nicolas Batum.  This quartet is pretty unlikely to go for a number of reasons.  For one, they have a higher value on the Blazers than they would just about anywhere else.  Also, Blake and Webster have injury issues and that may cause other teams to shy away.  Batum is unlikely to go unless that trade brings in a mature perimeter stopper because that's what it looks like Batum will be, while Joel is unlikely to go unless a quality backup center plus another good piece comes in and I don't think many teams would do that for Joel. 

That brings us to the very tradable pieces that Portland has.  First and foremost is:

Raef Lafrenz-

Raef is known to us Portland fans as RLEC, or "Raef Lafrenz's expiring contract."  Raef makes roughly $13 million this season and it will all come off the books for whomever he winds up with.  As if that wasn't enough, Raef is injured and done for the year, so insurance is covering 70% of his salary.  What that means is he will cost his team about $3.3 million this year and give them $13 million in cap relief next year.  With the economic climate squeezing most teams, RLEC is a very appealing piece and may garner more than it would in other years. If Portland makes a major trade Raef will be involved.  However, most teams would probably also like a good player in return, which leads us to...

Travis Outlaw-

I've been predicting all season that Outlaw gets moved, and if Portland does make a major trade there is at least a 50/50 chance Outlaw is involved.  All season I've highlighted the good and bad of Outlaw and what it boils down to is that he's a streaky shooter who does good things in the clutch, but also has a penchant for getting lost on defense, hogging the ball, and seems to have a pretty severe allergy to hustle and reobunding.  In terms of talent he's probably the best really tradable piece Portland has.  On most teams he is a 2nd or 3rd option offensively and his long body will trick a lot of coaches into thinking he can be molded into a defensive stopper.  Pairing him with RLEC could bring in some real quality parts for Portland.

Channing Frye-

Frye has been nothng be a disappointment for Portland, but that's mostly because he just doesn't fit what they need.  On a team with a hustler and rebounder with a low post game at center he would be a good fit, and he would also work well on more up-tempo teams.  He's got a pretty good jump shot that extends out to the three point line, which is a luxery at PF for some teams.  Just don't ask him to go down low or crash the boards.  He also has an appealing if not eye-popping $3.1 million expiring contract.  Portland wouldn't really miss him if he left either, because he isn't really in the rotation anymore. Frye would probably be a filler piece to balance salaries in a trade, but there's also a chance he'd be the featured piece in a minor deal.

Sergio Rodriguez-

Sergio would actually be a bit painful for Portland to part with.  There's his close friendship and great chemistry with Rudy to be considered, along with the fact that as a backup PG he's not too bad.  He's also held down the fort okay with Blake out.  But at some point it's pretty obvious that Bayless will supplant him and Sergio is too good to keep on the end of the bench.  Sergio is below average on defense but has worked on his shooting enough for it to almost be considered average.  What's more is that he needs to be guarded on his drives to the rim, and of course his passing is as good as most starting point guards in the NBA.  A team looking for a PG of the future or a decent backup would be lucky to have Sergio.  He's also cheap, giving teams an inexpensive yet talented PG. Of all the really tradable assets that Portland has, Sergio would be the hardest to part with and I'd put his odds at leaving at less than 25%.

Ike Diogu-

Ike is only added here because he would be a good filler piece to balance salaries, he has a $3 million expiring contract, and Portland isn't using him right now so they wouldn't miss him.  I don't anticipate him going but wouldn't be surprised if he did.

So those are the real trade assets Portland has.  Now for Portland's needs-

High Quality Point Guard-

It's no secret that the point is Portland's weakest position.  Blake has done a great job holding the spot for now, but he's a backup on a championship team and that's what Portland hopes to be.  Bayless has potential to be a great PG, but he's a few years away from being truly capable of running this team.  If Portland can swing a deal for a veteran point that's a good defender and can run a team they should do it.  There don't seem to be many point guards on the trade market though.

Small Forward-

Right now Portland has quantity but not quality at the 3.  There's Webster, who is A) injured and B) a role player anyway.  There's Outlaw, who really is better suited as a PF than a SF and has proven he isn't a good starter at that position.  And then there's Batum, who is probably the future for Portland at this position and has started 47 straight games.  However, he is very, very green and can't be counted on to score.  Portland also has the pieces to land a very high profile SF, and if said SF is also an experienced veteran then Portland could vault themselves up in the NBA power rankings.

Backup PF-

This need isn't as noted as the other two, but just as necessary.  With Frye playing himself out of the rotationthe role of backup 4 has fallen on Outlaw.  He's a very good offensive option there, but even if he was committed to rebounding and defense (which is absolutely NOT the case) he doesn't have the size or weight to muscle with other power forwards in the division.  Portland needs a big, bad, scrappy bruiser to play backup to the lithe and smooth Aldridge.  Think Jason Maxiell-type player, or Paul Millsap before he became better than Carlos Boozer.

So, those are Portland's assets and needs.  Now, how to combine them into one useful trade?  Here's a handful of rumors that have been swirling around-

Sacramento gets: RLEC

Portland gets: John Salmons and Mikki Moore

This was really the first concrete Portland trade to come up and has been mostly shot down, and for good reason.  Salmons is a good player having a very good year (18.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.7 apg, .421 3pt%), but it seems like Portland would be able to get more for RLEC.  What's moore (HA!) is that Mikki has to get thrown in to balance out salaries and he has a mid-level contract that has two years left.  Salmons would fit in nicely at SF, but not at the cost of RLEC, which should only be used to get a player that puts Portland in position to make a deep playoff run.  Salmons isn't that player.

Phoenix gets: Lamarcus Aldridge, RLEC

Portland gets: Amare Stoudamire

I said that LA was untouchable unless a perennial All-Star was involved.  This is why.  Phoenix allegedly made this offer to Portland in one chapter of this Stoudamire trade saga.  Amare is an immediate upgrade over LA at PF and could boost Portland to a top 3 seed in the West, but this trade sacrafices a large part of Portland's future.  Stoudamire will likely opt out of his contract and walk in 2010, while LA while probably be a guy that stays in Portland for the long haul.  Amare also is worse on defense than Aldridge and Aldridge is expected to become a player of Amare's caliber someday soon.  Portland reportedly shot this trade down and counter-offered with:

Phoenix gets: Jerryd Bayless, RLEC, Channing Frye

Portland gets: Amare Stoudamire

The only problem with this trade is the chaos it causes the rotation.  Does Aldridge go to the bench?  Does Stoudamire move to center and send Oden to the bench?  And there's still the fact that Stoudamire's main problems come from having to share the ball instead of being "The Man," and in Portland he'd have a whole slew of players to share with, starting with Roy and Aldridge and moving through Oden, Rudy, Outlaw, etc.  Three things Portland doesn't want: guys who won't commit to defense, guys who demand the ball, and guys who raise problems.  Stoudamire does all three.  This is a move the Portland would do if they were looking to win NOW, but they are still looking to the future and so I don't like this trade.

The only way this trade happens is if Stoudamire is traded ASAP, but I think we're too close to the deadline for that to happen.

Those are the only real concrete trades I've heard of.  However, Jason Quick of The Oregonian offered up a (vague) doozie: Portland is in talks with an East team about acquiring a SF and a PG for RLEC and two significant bench players in a trade that puts Portland in the top three in the West without sacrificing its future.  There has been endless speculation amongst Blazer fans, including (all these trades check out on ESPN.com's trade machine):

Charlotte gets: RLEC, Travis Outlaw, Channing Frye

Portland gets: Gerald Wallace, Reymond Felton

My sources in my brain tell me there is 0% chance of this happening.  Charlotte isn't looking to shed payroll and certainly isn't looking to move it's best player in Wallace. 

Washington gets: RLEC, Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez

Portland gets: Caron Butler, Mike James

Washington only does this if they've given up on the Butler-Jamison-Arenas trio, and I don't think they have yet.  Even if they have, I think that there are many better offers for Butler.  I do still think it's possible for Portland to get Butler, they would have to give up more than is mentioned in Quick's rumor.

Chicago gets: RLEC, Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez (notice a pattern?)

Portland gets: Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng

If Chicago is willing to part with Deng this trade is possible.  The Bulls gain flexibility to build around Rose while Portland gets an upgrade at SF.  However, Hinrich has a nasty contract and I'm not convinced he's an upgrade over Blake anymore.  Furthermore, Deng is good but not exactly a put-you-over-the-top player.  It's more of a step sideways than a step forward for Portland.

New Jersey gets: RLEC, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye

Portland gets: Vince Carter, Keyon Dooling

The reason this trade is floating around is Quick mentioned that the SF was a player Portland openly persued before (Portland almost landed Carter in a trade back in 2004).  New Jersey would do this for cap relief, though they may want Outlaw in there too.  Portland would get a big name at SF without losing much else.  However, I don't think Carter would want to share the ball with Roy, Aldridge, and Rudy.  There's also the fact the Carter has four years left on a massive contract and is without question on the decline.  I don't like this one.

Okay, just one more (put down the trade machine Gordon, put it down and walk away)

Milwaukee gets: RLEC, Travis Outlaw, Channing Frye

Portland gets: Richard Jefferson, Luke Ridnour

This one carries some weight.  With Redd done for the year the Bucks are looking to sell, sell, sell.  They also are looking to move Ridnour because Raymond Sessions is their PG now and Ridnour's contract is too big for a backup.  The Bucks would get about $16 million off the books next year and build around Sessions, Redd, Outlaw, Villenueva, and Bogut while having cap flexibility.  There's also a chance Sergio is in this trade instead of Frye, which reduces the cap flexibilty but keeps a decent backup PG in Milwaukee.  Portland gets their answer at SF in this trade, while getting a reliable backup PG.  The only problem is that it creates a logjam at PG.  I therefore suspect that if this trade happens there will be another smaller one involving some combination of Diogu, Sergio, Shavlik Randolph, and/or draft picks for that backup PF I mentioned (Brandon Bass and Jason Maxiell should both be attainable if draft picks are involved in the trade).

If this trade's actually on the table Portland should do it. 

Bottom line for this trade season and the Portland Trail Blazers: they shouldn't make a move that makes them contenders now but compramises their long term plans.  It also seems like Portland won't be getting a big name PG given what seems to be available on the trading market and the pieces Portland should be parting with.  It does, however, seem very possible (thanks to RLEC) for the Blazers to get a high profile small forward that helps move them to the top of their division and into the upper echelon of the West.