FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Watched "Chicago" today.  I like that movie more every time I watch it.  It's fun to see actors portray themselves in a different light, and that was almost entirely what the whole movie was about.  It's one of those movies that I never really think about until I see it on TV, and once its on I can't stop watching. In no way whatsoever this leads me to:

 All-Star Blazers Review

Portland had three players elected to various All-Star activities this last weekend, though due to a chipped patella Greg Oden wasn't able to participate in the rookie-sophomore game.  Rudy Fernandez was also rather nondescript in that game.

In the dunk contest the consensus is that Rudy got robbed by the judges but wouldn't have made the finals anyway.  Both of his dunks earned a 42 and deserved higher.  The first was a behind the back alley-oop off the backboard while going from the left of the rim to the right.  It was fancy and clean.  By no means did this dunk deserve a 50, but a 45-46 would have been appropriate.  The second dunk Rudy took an alley oop from fellow Spaniard Pau Gasol off the back of the backboard while flying along the baseline and threw down a reverse dunk.  It was a difficult dunk and took ten total tries, mostly due to some inept passing by Gasol.  So here's my question: was Pau passing because no Blazer wanted to help, because Rudy didn't ask for any Blazer to help, or because he really wanted his countryman throwing the pass?  There have been rumors of dissention between Rudy and Brandon Roy, who was there for the All-Star weekend and is a much better passer than Gasol.  Either way, Rudy did eventually convert the dunk and it was very impressive.  Had he got it on the first try it would have deserved a 50.  All the extra attempts included makes it about a 46 or 47.  Still, the NBA wanted a Robinson-Howard final and I'm convinced they set it up so that it would happen.

In the All-Star game Roy was even more impressive than last year.  Though he was a reserve he played a team high 31 minutes and logged 12 point, 5 boards and 5 assists.  A lot of his points game on explosive dunks because, as Roy said, he "wanted to show his family his explosiveness."  He also had a couple of nice passes and overall represented Portland well.  He is likely to make many returns to the event in the future.  If you asked me at the start of last season, I would have said Roy would be the kind of guy that makes 5 or 6 All-Star games in his career. Now, if he remains healthy, I think 10 is more likely.

The Week Ahead

Heading into the stretch run of the season Portland stands 4th in the West at 32-20, and they should be able to hit the ground running against some pretty weak competition at the outset.  All three of Portland's games this week are at home against opponents with a combined 59-101 record.  

The first games is this evening against Memphis.  Portland will be without Greg Oden for this game but Steve Blake returns after missing 12 of the last 13 games with a seperated shoulder.  Memphis isn't exactly a powerhouse- Portland outmatches them at basically every position.  If the Blazers lose this game there are some real problems.  If this is close it would be upsetting.  Portland should win this in a cakewalk.

On Friday the Hawks come to town and are actually a legit threat.  Atlanta is like the Blazers of the East: a young athletic team sitting 4th in its conference.  Oden may or may not be playing, more news of his injury will be available on Thursday.  There are two major advantages that Portland has: 1) the game is in Portland, where the Blazers are 20-5 and 2) it's an East opponent, and the Blazers are 17-5 against the East including wins against Orlando, Detroit, Boston, and Miami.  Portland plays well against the good teams in the East.  I would love to be at this game and this could well be a budding interconference rivalry, and Portland should win a competitive game because they are hosting an Eastern opponent.

Finally, on Sunday Portland welcomes the Clippers.  Zach Randolph will probably be suspended for this game for punching a Suns reserve yesterday.  Chris Kaman will also probably be out and unless Oden's injury is worse than reported he should be playing.  I'd be surprised if this game was competitive and Portland should win.

I'd like to note, in case there are any that accuse me of being a blind homer, that this is the first time I've predicted the Blazers go undefeated in the week.

It's also important to recognize that the trade deadline in Thursday, and it is widely expected that Portland will be trading Raef Lafrenz aka RLEC aka "The Golden Ticket" (when has such an insignificant player had so many nicknames?) and possibly some filler for one of the four of Caron Butler, Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, or Gerald Wallace.  As I've mentioned before, the Jefferson trade seems most likely but now it also seems Wallace is a very real possiblity.  Whatever the case, the OKC-New Orleans trade set the market for expiring contracts and set it pretty high, so RLEC should be able to get the Blazers a major upgrade at their weakest position.  There is also a rumor revolving around Channing Frye and pick(s) for John Salmons, which has a lower cost but also a lower return.

Whatever the case, it's getting to the point that I would be surprised if Portland doesn't trade Raef and probably one or two other pieces for Butler, Jefferson, Carter, or Wallace.  If Portland acquires any of those four guys and only give up Raef + Outlaw and/or Sergio, they should be able to secure a top 4 seed in the West.  If they do that you have to like their chances of winning at least one playoff series due to their superior home record.  Am I getting ahead of myself at all?  And what was I going to talk about?  Oh yeah...

Durant vs. Oden

Never before has the Kevin Durant vs. Greg Oden debate been more polarizing than it has in the past two weeks.  The Blazers could have drafted either player in 2007 and opted for a potential franchise center over a potentially superior individual talent.  This selection brought back phantoms of 1984, when Portland infamously opted for Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan with the 2nd pick in the draft.  In the 2006-07 college season both Durant and Oden were stellar: Durant won most of the player of the year awards and Oden led his Buckeyes to the NCAA title game.  In pre-draft workout Portland looked at both players extensively.  Keving Pritchard decided Oden was the better choice even though Durant looked like a better individual player because "Durant is the kind of guy that will play in 10 All-Star games, but Oden is the kind of guy that can win 10 championships." At this point it looks like the 10 All-Star games may have been a serious understatement and the 10 titles was probably a major overstatement.

Then disaster struck the fragile hearts of Blazermaniacs.  Oden went in for what was reported as minor knee surgery to "clean things out" and left with the dreaded microfracture knee surgery which was a death knoll to his rookie season.  In the meantime Durant posted 20 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists in earning the Rookie of the Year award.  Those Jordan/Bowie phantoms because screaming demons in the ears of Portland fans, the consolation being that Oden would return healthy the following season to redeem himself.

The Players

Greg Oden:

Oden has played this season, but hasn't exactly wowed.  His biggest issue is fouls.  Contraty to popular belief injuries aren't a big issue, no more so than a lot of rookies or big men.  He missed six games at the start of the year with a foot sprain and will miss another game or two with a chipped patella, but it's not uncommon for centers to only play 60-70 games in a season and Oden is on pace to do at least that.  It's his fouls that really limit his production.  Oden averages 9 points and 7 rebounds in 22.9 minutes a game, which means that when he is on the floor he tends to be a good player.  Further evidence is that of the 17 games that he's logged 30 or more minutes he's had 14 double doubles.  Further evidence that fouls are a problem is that he's only logged 30 or more minutes in 17 of his games. This is because along with those 9 points and 7 rebounds he also averages a whopping 3.9 fouls per game in less than 23 minutes.

A lot of Oden's fouls are due to him being out of position on defense.  When he's man-to-man in the post he does more than fine, but his pick and roll defense is pretty bad.  Portland also has a pretty weak perimeter defense.  This adds up to Oden defending guards a lot of the time and he just isn't fast enough to keep up with them.  However, instead of simply letting them go he tries to stay in front and gets blocking fouls or if the guard passes to the open post player Oden fouls him.  For now the cure to this problem is Oden simply letting players go instead of fouling.  His presence on the court is too important, and it also would put more accountability on the perimeter defense.

Oden IS more of an offensive threat than he is given credit for.  When he catches the ball in the post one of four things happen with roughly equal regularity: he travels (1.6 turnovers per game), he is doubled and passes it out without getting it back (something that needs to be remedied), he takes it to the hole and gets up a very close and makeable shot (56.8% from the field for the season), or he is fouled by an overmatched opponent.  Basically, when utilized he is a reliable offensive weapon and he needs to be looked for more on offense.  Give it back to him when he passes it back out and gets deeper position.  Work more pick and rolls, which he and Sergio Rodriguez execute with regular success.  Whatever it takes, give Oden more looks on offense.

He is also a great rebounder, especially offensively, and a good post defender.  If he could just stay out of foul trouble he would be a 12 and 10 guy with two blocks thrown in, which is what you would hope for out of a rookie center (see Yao Ming and Dwight Howard's rookie numbers). 

Kevin Durant:

This season Durant has made a leap from "potential star" to "star."  Some people argue that his production is because he is on a terrible Oklahoma City team, but I say that is BS.  For starters, Durant isn't chucking up shots to pad stats (only 17 shots per game).  But more indicitive is the fact that the Thunder have been a respectable 9-12 since the New Year and Durant's numbers have gone up in that stretch.  For the year Durant is 25.9 points per game (4th in the NBA) and 6.6 rebounds.  The more impressive numbers are his shooting percentages: 48% from the field (up from 43% last year) and 44% from three (up from 29% in his rookie year).  Basically, Durant is one of the best offensive weapons this league has already and is only 20 years old.

Durant's biggest detraction is that he isn't a very good defender...yet.  He has all the physical tools to become one, but then again so does Travis Outlaw.  Still, Durant seems to be driven enough to become a reliable defender eventually.  His other weakness is lack of passing ability, and you'd like to see some passing out of a small forward, especially on a team with some other nice weapons like Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green.  But this is nitpicking.  Durant is a very gifted player and has completely lived up to his potential to this point.

The Future:

At this point it seems safe to say that Durant will be the superior individual talent, and perhaps by a good margin.  Assuming Durant adds weight to his lanky 215 pound frame (which is expected since the kid is only 20 years old) he may become a very similar player to Lebron James without the passing ability but with a better jump shot.  What I'm saying is that it isn't unreasonable to assume that Durant is a possible future MVP if A) the Thunder become a contender or B) he leaves the Thunder as a free agent (which I consider more likely).  At his peak Durant could post some ridiculous numbers, say 31-8-4 with 50% shooting and 45% from three. 

I can't begin to assume what he could accomplish in terms of championships because his team is so weak right now and who knows who he will wind up with, but it's safe to say that his success will include a few good postseason runs at least.  As for individual accomplishments, he should be an All-Star next year and make the rest until his career begins to wind down.  Everything from MVPs to All-Defense is also possible and even likely.  This kid has a very bright future.

Oden's future, on the other hand, could go any number of ways.  Perhaps he will turn out to be injury prone and suffer through a (damn, I'm gonna say it) Sam Bowie-like career.  Perhaps he will stay healthy but never be more than a role-player center ranging from Eric Dampier to Andrew Bogut.  It's also possible that he will shake off the foul trouble, get all of his athleticism back from before the knee surgery and learn a ten foot jumper, becoming an all time great center like Patrick Ewing or David Robinson.  I don't find any of these scenarios very likely.  I should also mention that it is basically a zero chance that Oden becomes a 28-15 center like Shaq or Hakeem or what Dwight Howard should turn in to.  He just isn't that athletic or skilled.

What I find most likely is that he will be a borderline star at center of the Dikembe Mutombo or Alonzo Mourning echelon.  He won't lead the Blazers (or whatever team he may play for if Portland gives up on his down the road), but he should be a valuable player due to his superb rebounding and defense along with reliable offensive skills.  At his peak I'd say 18-13 with 2-3 blocks a game is reasonable. If he sticks with Portland he should have a chance to win a few titles, and with that success will come some individual accolades, though not to the extent that Durant will earn (3-5 All-Star games, some spots on the all-defense team perhaps, maybe even a defensive POY or two).  It doesn't look like Oden will ever be the star that some projected him to be out of high school and college, but he should be a good center in this league.

The Verdict:

So, did Portland make the right choice?  Obviously hindsight is 20/20 so Portland can't really be blamed if they made the wrong choice.  Oden was a potential franchise center and those come along far less often than potential high-scoring forwards like Durant. It was the right pick at the time, but that isn't the question.  The question is whether Portland can look back and say yes, they did pick the right guy.

Now, it's clearly too soon to make that judgement now, but applying what I believe will happen with each player can help out.  If Oden is either the Sam Bowie or Dampier/Bogut player then Portland made the wrong choice.  Durant would obviously have a greater impact.  Also, if Oden becomes the Ewing/Robinson Portland clearly made the right choice and will also probably win a half dozen titles.  However, as I already said, I don't find any of those scenarios likely.

So, if Oden becomes an 18-13-2.5 center and Durant is the 31-8-4 wing player, did Portland make the right choice?  Durant will be remembered as a greater player than Oden, but the final answer isn't as simple as that.  I argue that if Oden becomes the Mutombo/Mourning hybrid and Durant the McGrady/Garnett hybrid (to steal a Bill Simmons analogy), Portland will have made the right selection.  See, with Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge in the lineup Durant wouldn't have the great individual numbers and also would essentially provide the same (but probably better) things that those two do.  This isn't to say that Durant would take away what Roy and Aldridge do, admittedly the trio of Roy, Aldridge, and Durant would be formidable and Portland would do well with them.  But Portland would also be weak in the post because Aldridge isn't exactly the best rebounder or post defender and Joel Pryzbilla isn't a offensive weapon.

With Oden in the lineup Portland has strength in the post on offense and defense while having more than enough offense to win.  With Oden instead of Durant Portland has less offense but greater defense and rebounding.  Basically, 18-13 out of Oden is better than 31-8 out of Durant because of how they would go about getting their numbers.

As to whether or not this will actually happen, only time will tell.  Until then, it seems Durant is the better individual player but Oden gives Portland a better chance at winning.