Each year, prior to the start of the MLB season, I use a unique mathematical system (one that I will not get into, because it's boring) to project the performance of every player and team. This season, in lieu of their significant offseason additions, I expected the Yankees to come out on top. Surprisingly, my expectations were wrong...
The Boston Red Sox have the best team in baseball.
Seems unusual, I know. Not the Yankees, or the Phillies, or the Rays, or even the Cubs...but the scrappy, resourceful Red Sox.
Here are the specific results:
The Yankees ranked 1st in infield, 19th in outfield, 1st in starting pitching, 5th in relief pitching, and 2nd overall.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, finished 6th in infield, 3rd in outfield, 2nd in starting pitching, and 2nd in relief pitching; thus, 1st overall.
So while the Yankees have the premier infield and starting staff in the game, they do have a glaring weakness in the outfield, with the projected group of RF-Xavier Nady, CF-Johnny Damon, and LF-Nick Swisher. New York's trio should be adequate offensively, but one of the worst defensive outfields in quite some time. Damon has no arm and Nady/Swisher have notably limited range.
Anyway, enough sidetracking. Based on the aforementioned mathematical system, here are my full predictions for the upcoming '09 season:
Top ten teams, regardless of divisional situation; in order:
Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Angels, Cubs, Rays, Mets, White Sox, Dodgers, Braves.
Projected standings, by division:
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central: White Sox, Indians, Twins, Tigers, Royals
AL West: Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners
NL East: Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Brewers, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rockies, Padres
As you can see, the Rangers, Reds, and Giants may surprise people, while the Tigers and Brewers may disappoint. The Rays, ranked sixth overall, will miss the playoffs because of the ultra-competitive nature of the AL East.
Now for the postseason predictions:
AL Wild Card: Yankees
NL Wild Card: Mets
ALDS: Red Sox over White Sox, Yankees over Angels
NLDS: Phillies over Dodgers, Cubs over Mets
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Phillies over Cubs
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies
Looks like the storied Red Sox/Yankees rivalry will add another chapter come playoff time...
In the coming days and weeks I'll post some of the more specific results of the system. For example, the top five infields, outfields, starting rotations, and/or bullpens. Please keep your eye out for future posts. I openly welcome all comments and opinions.
(The Red Sox are the new Yankees. How did they make the transition? "JFro," aka John Frascella, is the author of "Theo-logy: How a Boy Wonder Led the Red Sox to the Promised Land."
It's the first full-length book centered on Boston Red Sox's popular
general manager Theo Epstein. Preview or purchase it online at Amazon.com, Barnes
and Noble or Borders. It's currently stocked in Barnes and Noble stores
throughout the U.S. Also, check out John on Twitter.)
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Comments (19) Add A Comment
Uh...Johnny Damon will be in Left, Cabrera/Gardner will be Center and Swisher/Nady will be in right.
rstowe
Newport News , VA
Total Comments (47606)
rstowe, I based my projected outfield on the most reliable fantasy sports website, Rotoworld. Here's the link to the Yankees' depth chart:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/Depth_MLB.aspx?sport=MLB&majteam=NYY
Also, Swisher is definitely better than both Cabrera and Gardner, so it's not as if the Yankees outfield will improve drastically -- or at all -- with either of the other two.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
right, cuz using a fantasy site to determine actual, on the field participation makes perfect sense.
Girardi has come out and said, Damon will not be in CF, that will be either Cabrera or Gardner, and RF will be either Swisher or Nady with the other serving as a utility guy.
And yes, Swisher is better than both, however, if you're projecting how the teams will do, have your positions right, otherwise you're using false information to come to your conclusions.
rstowe
Newport News , VA
Total Comments (47606)
even if that means the Yankees drop further in "your rankings", get the beginning info right, that's all I'm saying
rstowe
Newport News , VA
Total Comments (47606)
Even from a fantasy standpoint, whoever starts in CF (either Cabrera or Gardner) will be worth more than whoever doesn't get the RF job (Nady/Swisher) in day to day lineups for fantasy baseball
more games played by the CF than the utility OF (barring any injuries of course).
rstowe
Newport News , VA
Total Comments (47606)
rstowe, none of what you've said would have helped the Yankees enough in my rankings system for them to surpass the Red Sox. So you've wasted your energy to some extent. With the outfield the way I had it they'd outrank the possible Damon-Gardner-Nady trio.
Gardner is one of the weakest hitters I've seen in the majors of the course of the past five seasons. Melky has proven that he can't carry the load for an entire season.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
Your standings predictions are very similar to mine. The only one I would honestly change would be to put the A's ahead of the Rangers.
For the World Series, I just can't see the Phillies making it back there. If I had to make my prediction, it would be, brace yourself, Red Sox vs. Giants
I know that looks crazy, but hey, didn't the Rays make it last year?
NYGiants: Get Your…
Rockville Centre , NY
Total Comments (4222)
NYGiants, it's difficult to count anyone out based on what we saw from the Rays last year, and what we've seen from small-market teams like the Marlins in the past.
The Giants should certainly improve this season, thanks in large part to their third-ranked starting staff, but their offense leaves much to be desired. I expect both the Dodgers and D'Backs to have better balance than San Fran.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
Cubs are way better than the Phillies. Not being a homer.
xDIZZLEx aka The…
Total Comments (954)
Phillies won the World Series and merely swapped Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez. Cubs may have improved a little with Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles, but I hardly believe those two should be enough for me to supplant the defending world champions.
Bradley is one of the most injury-prone players in the bigs, and the Cubbies lost Kerry Wood as well. Cubs rank 12th in outfield and 14th in relief pitching, while the Phillies rank in the top ten in both.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
From all indications, this year looks very interesting for the Atlanta Braves. They look to surprise everyone. They have been in a slump in years past. They are about to make a completed repeat for the 90's worse to first.
Rangerroy1
Marietta , GA
Total Comments (1)
Carlos Marmol is light years better than Keery Wood, who is in the news again with a hurt back. I don't see Cole Hamels going for 227 innings again without getting hurt, he does have a checkered medical history. If Bradley can stay healthy, I think that is more than enough reasons they can be better. I am not sold that the Phillies will even win the NL East again with how competitive it is.
xDIZZLEx aka The…
Total Comments (954)
Bradley never stays healthy -- that's his M.O.
I agree that Marmol is probably better than Wood at this stage in their careers, but I'll take Wood as a righty bullpen arm over Kevin Gregg, Chad Gaudin, and Aaron Heilman.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
xDizzlex, the Cubbies would be better if they played the right guys when it mattered. Reed Johnson and Micah Hoffpauir should have been starting over Jim Edmonds and Kosuke Fukudome in the playoffs last year. Johnson and Theriot should have been at the top of the order -- Soriano is not a reliable leadoff man in regards to OBP and plate discipline.
That's all an aside, though. Straight up, using my mathematical system, the Phillies outdid the Cubs.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
You know your team is bad when you get excited that someone has projected them to come in third in their division.
Go Reds!
Dallas_W
Cincinnati, OH
Total Comments (1764)
Dude, you got SWEPT by the Dodgers who we HOUSED in FIVE GAMES!!! Get a clue, quickly!!!
objective
Upper Darby , PA
Total Comments (4)
Dude you were SWEPT by the Dodgers who we HOUSED in Phive games. Get a clue, quickly!!
objective
Upper Darby , PA
Total Comments (4)
Haha, Dallas, I think your Reds are really going to surprise some people this season. They're a much more balanced team than the general public believes; most like to label Cincy as an offense-only club because of the friendly nature of The Great American Ballpark.
But Volquez, Harang, Cueto, and Arroyo, that's an intriguing 1 through 4.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
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