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We're getting right down to the wire now.  Most teams have around 25 games remaining, and in the West the difference between the 2nd place Spurs and the 9th place Suns is a mere 6.5 games.  It once again looks like the cutoff for 8th place will be 49-50 wins, so while the Lakers are basically a lock at this point the rest of the playoff contenders (San Antonio, Denver, Houston, Portland, New Orleans, Utah, Dallas, and Phoenix) are all in a mad dash to the finish line.  A normally harmless 1-3 streak can drop a team three or four spots and cost homecourt in the first round or even a spot in the postseason alltogether. 

The really interesting thing about all of this is that these eight in the scrambler all play roughly half of their remaining games against one another.  There are several ways that all of this can go, the only certainty being that today's standings will not be tomorrow's.  Portland has gone 4-1 in their last five and dropped a spot, San Antonio and Houston both lost star players and gone up in the rankings, and some team that truly deserves a spot will be left out.

Week in Review

3-1 (35-21 overall, 5th in the Western Conference)

I knew something felt wrong when I predicted an undefeated week for Portland in my last post.  The reason is, as usual, I write this between one and five in the morning and make dumb mistakes.  I predicted that Portland would go 3-0, which they did.  I failed to notice they then traveled to Houston.  Had I realized this, I would have predicted a loss because Portland struggles against West opponents and on the road.

The week started with the first game after the break, a relative cupcake versus the Grizzlies at home.  Portland was unexpectedly sluggish despite the time off.  Though Memphis never truly threatened to take the game, the Blazers also never really put them away.  A Travis Outlaw three with two minutes to go was the dagger, putting Portland up four.  This game also marked the return of Steve Blake after he missed 12 of the previous 13 games with a shoulder injury, and also was Darius Miles' return to the City of Roses (he was loudly booed).  Brandon Roy shouldered the load with 24 points, 9 assists, and 5 rebounds.  Lamarcus Aldridge was the only other consistent contributor with 15 point and 6 rebounds.  The lack of ease with this victory frustrated many Blazermaniacs, because in recent games Portland had played down to the competition.

Two days later Portland welcomed the Hawks to the Rose Garden.  Atlanta is a lot like the Blazers in that they are a young athletic team ahead of the curve in their development.  Given the Blazers recent struggles it was very nice to see Portland handle the Hawks relatively easily.  The Blazers controlled the inside and never let Al Horford get untracked.  Roy (27 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists) and Aldridge (24 points and 11 rebounds) once again led the way while the bench led by Rudy Fernandez outscored Atlanta's 33-20.  The Blazers carried an eight point lead into the 4th and Atlanta never made a run, helping the Blazers stroll to a 108-98 win.

It's very apparent that in the NBA, if you want to look good all you have to do is play the Clippers.  When LA came to Portland they were missing their top three big men along with a smattering of other key role players.  In fact, things are so bad for the Clippers that yesterday evening they started the 6'3" Eric Gordon at small forward, emphasis on the "small." Anyway, againstthe Clippers Portland opened up the fast break throttle and roared out to a 38-16 first quarter lead, and that was pretty much that.  The big story of that opening period was Blake, who tied an NBA record with 14 assists in a quarter.  Granted, some of those dimes were also assisted by the friendly home stat crew, but Blake really ran the show.  I've never seen him run the break so effectively, although again, it was the Clippers.  Anyone could have posted great numbers in that game, and the biggest contributors were Roy (20 points, 9 assists, 8 rebounds and sitting the entire 4th), Aldridge (28 and 10 while sitting the last ten minutes) and of course Blake, who finished with 17 assists and only two turnovers (none in that first quarter).  Portland rolled, eventually winning 116-87.

So Portland concluded the homestand at 3-0 and settled into 4th in the conference.  Oh, but wait, there's that whole Houston game.  The Blazer hit the road, kicking off a three game road trip.  Oden was still out, though in all fairness Joel Pyrzbilla has been so effecitve Portland is missing him too badly.  As has been a recent trend Portland came out lackluster and trailed by 18 at the break while everyone struggled shooting (Nicolas Batum was the only Blazer to hit more than half of his shots at 5-6).  And yet again Portland pulled their collective head out of their collective butt and mounted a serious second half comeback.  With two minutes to go they trailed by four, and with 22 seconds left they trailed by two.  Then the fouling game commenced and Houston hit their free throws, sending Portland away with a 98-94 loss.  Roy was strong once again with 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists (and clinching the Blazers MVP of the Week award) and Aldridge continued his recent strong play with 21 points and 8 rebounds.  With the win Houston vaulted over the Blazers for the 4th spot in the West, though again, both of these teams could be anywhere between 2nd and 9th in the end.

Three Things I Liked

1. The return of Steve Blake-

While Blake's numbers, even with his outburst against the Clippers, aren't exactly eye-popping (9 points, 8.8 assists, 31.1% from three), it's his steady hand and veteran leadership that Portland has been missing.  He has only turned the ball over FIVE total times in the past four games.  That's a 7-1 assist to turnover ratio.  Also, while he is below average on defense he is a smarter defender than either Sergio Rodriguez or Jerryd Bayless, especially when it comes to pick-and-rolls.

Since Blake has been back Portland's turnovers are down and assists are up.  They are also 3-1, and in the loss to Houston Blake played well.  Most "experts" are calling for Portland to deal for a big name point guard, but Blake runs this team well.  As I've said all season long, the Blazers don't need a star at the point; they need a veteran who can control the ball, limit mistakes, and hit open shots.  That man is Blake, and I will be very disappointed if someone (outside of Bayless eventually) replaces him.

2. Aldridge stepping it up-

With Greg Oden out due to a chipped patella the Blazers have a relatively thin frontcourt, both literally and figuratively (wiry Channing Frye has filled in as backup center with little success, while the lanky Outlaw is now the full time backup 4).  The good news is that Pyrzbilla has kept up his great play, and even better is that Aldridge is hitting the boards and attacking down low.  In the four games that Oden has missed Aldridge has 22 points, 9 rebounds and has shot 49% from the floor.

He's finally starting to assert himself as the bona fide #2 option on the team and often carries the team in the second and third quarters.  Few forwards in the game possess his inside-outside scoring abilitiy, and it's about time that he's realizing that.  When other forwards are on him he can go over them inside, and when centers guard him on switches he either drags them out of the paint with his 17 foot jumper or goes around them.  Aldridge is a gifted scorer and will be a key part of the Blazers future.

3. Nic Batum's improving offense-

Word came out earlier in the week that Martel Webster, who was supposed to be the team's starting small forward, will probably miss the rest of the season with a broken foot that has held him out for all but five minutes this year.  Thing is, nobody in Portland really flinched.  It's partially because his extended absence has led many to come to this conclusion on their own anyway.  But the main reason is that 20 year old rookie Nicolas Batum (who was destined for the D-League before Webster's injury in the preseason) has started all but four games in Webster's stead.  Normally Rudy Fernandez or Travis Outlaw gets most of the minutes at the small forward, while Batum fills in as a starter providing hustle and defense.

As of late, however, Batum is also scoring with increasing regularity.  In three of his past four games he's hit double figures, and even including a 1-6 performance against the Hawks (a game in which he played terrific defense on Joe Johnson) he's at 9.3 points per game on 54% shooting (43% from three) in only 21 minutes a game.  Most of Batum's points are on open threes and the fast break, where he is probably the best finisher on the team besides Roy.  So even if Webster doesn't come back until the playoffs (assuming Portland makes it) Batum more than fills the hole.  He's years ahead of his expected pace and has drawn comparisons to an early Tayshaun Prince, and if he can grow into that type of player Webster may eventually become expendable.

 Three Things I Didn't Like

1. Secrecy surrounding Oden's knee-

Look, I'm a Portland fan.  I'm used to heartache when it comes to centers.  Bowie?  Walton? Sabonis?  Those names ring any bells?  All supposed to be franchise centers, all derailed due to injury.  I can handle knowing my starting center is injured, even if it's for the entire year.  What I can't handle is not knowing.  Oden has missed the past four games (five if you count the rookie-sophomore game) after chipping his patella against Golden State.  What's been so bothersome is that he's been listed day-to-day since he's been hurt.

First it was "he'll probably play in the rookie game." Then it was "he's expected to play against Memphis," then to "we're holding him out and awaiting further evaluation," then "he won't play until Houston" and now it's "he will miss both the Houston and the San Antonio games, at least."  It would have been much less painful to say "he's out indefinitely."  It's also that everything surrounding this injury is so vague, and apparently the team isn't doing an MRI after the initial one.  Are they in denial?  Get the damn MRI and find out what's going on.  Even Nate McMillan says he is perplexed by the longevity of the injury.  SOMEBODY FIND OUT WHAT IS GOING ON!!!!

2. Bayless back to the end of the pine-

The downside of Blake returning to the rotation is that promising rookie Jerryd Bayless no longer has minutes alloted to him.  When Blake was out Bayless showed tons of ability, both as a scorer and a distributor, averaging 10 points and 3 assists off the bench in the 13 games that Blake was out.  He basically filled in the Jarret Jack role from last year as a spark.  He's fearless in the paint and in that 13 game span his distribution skills improved in nearly every outing (2 apg in the first 7 games, 4.2 in fewer minutes in the last 6).

For one reason or another McMillan has sworn Sergio is the clear cut backup, which I guess is fair since Sergio earned it in the preseason and has done nothing to lose it.  Still Bayless seems to good to earn between a DNPCP to 5 minutes a game.  I expect that in the offseason Sergio will be dealt, and am frankly surprised he wasn't already.  That leads me to:

3. Standing pat-

I understand waiting for the best deal to come along, and making no deal if you don't get an upgrade.  However, in Portland's position ANY move they made would have been an upgrade.  See, their big trading chip was the $13 million expiring contract of Raef Lafrenz, which in this economic environment is all the more valuable.  Portland also eventually needs a veteran, a beefy backup power forward, and capable scoring small forward.  Tons of rumors involved all three of those assets, most notable rumors involving Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson.  Portland allegedly had deals on the table sending away Outlaw and Sergio along with Raef for either those forwards and a $5-7 million a year bad contract.  Portland made no moves at the deadline.

It seems like Portland passed up a major opportunity to upgrade, and I think this is the first real mistake Kevin Pritchard, normally a fearless trading whiz, has made.  I think he fell too in love with his young talent and didn't realize that by getting Carter or Jefferson he would instantly make Portland a dark horse title contender without jeopardizing the long run.  Outlaw and Sergio, while important in the rotation now, are also largely expendale pieces involved in every trade rumor.  Portland won't be in such an adventageous position again for a very long time, and they missed the boat.

Also of Note

There are two extremely erroneous myths about the Blazers going around.  First is that Portland is a soft team that can't rebound.  It's fair to see how this myth perpetuates: Aldridge tends to not crash the boards, Outlaw is downright allergic to rebounds, and Oden is in and out of the rotation due to fouls and injury.  In fact, Portland has nobody with even nine rebounds a game.  However, as a team Portland rebounds exceptionally well.  Their rebounding rate (another one of John Hollinger's crazy stats, but pretty accurate as far as measuring what percentage of missed shots the team rebounds) is second in the NBA, and their offensive rebounding rate is best in the league.  In more simple terms, they are first in the league in overall offensive rebounds and second in the NBA in rebounding differential (they outrebound opponents by an average of 5.2 a game, second only to Boston's 5.9).

The other myth is that they are a strong defensive team and a relatively weak offensive team.  This myth exists because Portland is 9th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 95 ppg, and 16th in points scored at a shade over 99.  However, this is due to the pace they play (fewest possessions per game and the slowest tempoe in the league).  When you look at actual efficiency (how many points they score and allow per 100 possessions) it turns out Portland is in fact a stellar offensive team (2nd in efficiency to the Lakers) and a mediocre defensive team (18th behind such teams as Chicago, Milwaukee, and Charlotte). 

So while on the surface Portland looks like a poor rebounding team with solid defense and an ok offense, the Blazers are in fact a great rebounding team with one of the best offenses in the NBA and a below average defense.

Token Non-Blazers Thought

Of the five teams that really have a legit chance for a title (Orlando, San Antonio, Cleveland, LA Lakers, and Boston) I have to give the edge to San Antonio or Cleveland.  First, it's an odd numbered year so the Spurs have their annual switch flipped to "on."  And don't give me that "the Spurs are old" crap; they are obviously young enough to be second in the West, and Tim Duncan is only 32.  What's more is that Duncan is putting up the same numbers he always does and Parker is still improving.  Also, the Lakers are going to be trying to reintegrate Andrew Bynum into their lineup as the playoffs are going on, and they also seem to play better without him but will still play him.

As for the Cavs, it's simply their time.  The addition of Mo Williams was what it took.  Odds are with the Garnett injury the Cavs will take home court (though of course Boston can win on the road).  Lebron James is simply the best player in the NBA and has a great supporting cast around him now.  Mo Williams has gotten better as the season progressed, and it seems like the injury bug bites have healed.  Cleveland is damn near unbeatable at home, and it seems like they will have home court.  Therefore, my early prediction for the NBA Finals is a Cavs-Spurs rematch of 2007.

The Week Ahead

The next seven days will be a true measuring stick for the Baby Blazers.  First off is tonight, the second of a back-to-back when they travel to play the Spurs.  Everything is going against Portland in this one- a West opponent (17-16 vs. the West), on the road (12-16 on the road) and the second of a back-to-back (though Portland is a respectable 5-3 in those games), and Oden will still be out.  However, San Antonio will for sure be missing Ginobili and may also be missing Duncan (though they beat Dallas by almost 20 with both of them out of the lineup).  I feel that I've done reasonably well predicting games and I've done so going with my gut, and I have a gut feeling Portland wins this one.  Therefore, although my common senses say Portland loses, I say Portland pulls out a win.

On Friday the road trip concludes with a visit to Minnesota, who Portland was already beat twice this year.  The Wolves are without star Al Jefferson and are only 1-5 without him.  Also, Oden SHOULD be back, though at this point who knows.  Even if Oden is out, I don't think Portland loses this game.  They know they can't drop games they are supposed to win and should take care of business here.

On Sunday San Antonio comes to Portland, and it's pretty certain that by this point Duncan will be playing, though Ginobili will still be out.  As much as I have a gut feeling that Portland will win in San Antonio, I feel that San Antonio will win in Portland.  Therefore, I say the Spurs win this one.  I also think that if the Spurs do win at home, the Blazers will as well.  Basically, I think the teams will split their two games this week on way or the other.

Parting Thought

We're getting down to the part of the season where you start counting games and guessing how many more wins it will take to make the playoffs.  Right now the Blazers have 35 wins and 26 games to play.  There are two ways to look at how Portland must do down the stretch in order to get in.  The first is the easy way: figure that it will take 49 wins to make the playoffs.  In order for Portland to reach 49 wins they need to go a mediocre 14-12 in their remaining games to get in.  However, keep in mind that of those 26 games, 10 are against those other 8 West teams fighting for the playoff spots and another 3 are against East teams in playoff position.  So, half of Portland's remain games are against teams fighting like Hell for playoff positioning, so 14-12 isn't exactly a given.  Also, in my opinion, it isn't the best way to project what Portland must do to make the playoffs.

The best way to look at it takes into account the other teams that are fighting for playoff spots.  As I already said, it's very tightly packed- Portland is 3.5 back of the #2 seed and only 3 in front of the #9 seed.  In order to make the playoffs the, Portland must do no worse than 3 games worse than the #9 Phoenix Suns.  The Suns have no Amar'e Stoudamire until basically the end of the season but have rediscovered themselves and their "seven seconds or less" offense even without Stoudamire.  However, the Suns have an extremely brutal closing schedule: of their last 26 games 12 are against the other 8 teams in the West fighting for the playoffs and an additional 4 are against East teams in playoff positioning.  Given their lack of Stoudamire and the toughness of the schedule it seems as though the best they could realistically muster over their last 26 games is 16-10, and that is very optimistic.  If Phoenix goes 16-10, Portland must go 13-13 and beat Phoenix in their last matchup in order to make the playoffs.

So, either way you look at it Portland probably has to go just a shade over .500 down the stretchto make the playoffs.  They have a five game road trip, a four game road trip, and three more back-to-backs. It's not an easy closing schedule, but it's not as brutal as their first 26 games when they went 16-10.  Basically, the moral of the story is that even though the West is brutal and you can't take a night off, Portland would have to play sub-.500 ball over a 26 game stretch (which they haven't done this year) in order to miss the playoffs.  I would in fact say it's more likely that they get home court in the first round than they miss the playoffs, which is much better than I projected at the start of the season.