SAN FRANCISCO -- Now is a good time to address a popular misconception about AT&T Park, nee Pac Bell: This is not a good hitter's park, not for lefties, not for righties, not for anybody not named Barry Bonds.

For as much talk about tonight's Home Run Derby participants splish splashing their way to victory via McCovey Cove -- there's probably more media in McCovey Cove on kayaks than members of the regular flotilla of Giants fans -- the smart money will not be on the southpaw sluggers to take home the crown. (That's bad news for defending champion Ryan Howard.)

Based on the past three years of data and this season as well, the gurus at Baseball Prospectus have calculated that AT&T Park reduces home run output by right-handed hitters by 15 percent. For left-handed hitters, their power is cut down by 33 percent.

Keep in mind that the minimum distance to McCovey Cove is 370 feet, but that's only if you can pull it directly down the line. Toward left-center the ballpark expands rapidly.

"Lefties will be aiming for that right-field line, but right-center is a graveyard," Colorado All-Star Matt Holliday says. "Left field all the way to center is pretty fair."

My money is on Vladimir Guerrero, Magglio Ordonez, Albert Pujols, Alex Rios or Holliday over the lefty trio of Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau and Howard. I like Holliday to take it all, if for no other reason than the fact that he is a late entry and had the least amount of time to think about the pressure beforehand.

Let's see if I'm right. I'll be updating the results live from AT&T Park tonight.

First Round

Player, HRs, Longest
1. Holliday, 5, 462
1. Rios, 5, 427
1. Guerrero, 5, 463
4. *Pujols, 4, 435
4. Morneau, 4,  430
6. Fielder, 3, 442
6. Howard, 3, 477
8. Ordonez, 2, 422

* Advances on "Swing Off" over Morneau 

Comments: Wanna trade seats? I imagine you are home in your comfortable living room enjoying this Derby while I'm sitting in the left-field upper deck, where the aux press box is located, and I'm FREEZING! The calendar does say July, right? With a nod to Mark Twain, I'd like to say this is definitely the coldest I've ever been in summertime.

The wind seems to blowing out to all fields, so it is surprising that we have yet to see any decent HR totals. There was a wicked shadow between the hitters and the pitchers for much of the round however, so that may have had an effect on the sluggers. Howard's title defense ended swiftly as he managed only three home runs, but he did hit the longest shot of the day so far with a 477-foot shot that nearly hit the trolley car in right-center field. Holliday, Rios and Guerrero advance. Morneau and Pujols have to go to a "Swing Off" to break their tie, which Pujols wins by hitting two bombs on his first two swings; Morneau hit only one.

Only three balls made it to the Cove so far -- all foul -- and no left-handers advanced to the second round. The kayakers might as well go home. 

Second Round

Player, HRs, Longest
1. *Rios, 12, 452
2. *Guerrero, 9, 503
2. Pujols, 9, 459
4. Holliday, 8, 475

* Advances to final 

Comments: With the wind blowing out straight to left field and the twilight shadows no longer a problem, Rios and Guerrero put on power displays to advance to the final round (the results from Round 1 carry over). My pick to win, Holliday, falls one home run short of advancing. Guerrero's homers were moonshots, with several of them either coming close to the giant Coke bottle in left or nearly leaving the stadium altogether. Pujols made a run at tying Vlad with an amazing power outburst but fell about 10 feet short of a home run on his last out. 

Final Round

Player, HRs, Longest
Guerrero, 3, 425
Rios, 2, 426

Comments: Rios went first and managed only two homers. Vlad followed up and hit the three homers he needed to clinch with three outs to spare. In what may have been the most dramatic Home Run Derby ever, Guerrero takes the crown.