FanNation - The Republic of Sport

I just got the best news I've received in about a year and a half today: Western Washington University just accepted me into their graduate school.  I've been rejected by five grad schools along the way and have honestly been getting discouraged, and all along the way Western has been my top choice.  I never expected for them to welcome me into the program, but apparently they thought I was a top applicant.  Starting in the Fall I'll be going back to school and pursuing a Master's degree in Experimental Psychology.  What does this have to do with the Blazers? Absolutely nothing.  I'm just really freaking excited is all.

Week in Review

2-1 (37-22, tied for 5th in the West)

What was it I said last week? A typically harmless 1-3 week could drop a team from the top to the bottom of the Western Conference?  Portland nearly experience that last week.  Coming off of a tough loss to the Rockets on the road the Blazers went to San Antonio, who were without both Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan.  The opportunity was there for the taking. Portland played it close in the first half, but Tony Parker was just too much and took advantage of a porous Blazer perimeter defense.  Parker torched the Blazers for 39 points, 9 assists (1 turnover), and 5 rebounds, leaving a wake of baffled Portland "defenders" behind him.  The Spurs outscored the Blazers 51-39 in the second half and held Portland to 37% shooting for the game.  When Channing Frye is your best performer (14 points and 7 rebounds) you know you are in trouble.  Portland fell far too easily 99-84.

For as tough as portion of Portland's schedule is, there is also usually a "relief game" following a tough set.  Last week it was the Clippers, this week it was the Timberwolves.  Poor Minnesota wasn't very good to begin with, doesn't have Al Jefferson, and always plays poorly against Portland.  This one was really over before it got started.  Brandon Roy led five Blazers in double figures with 19 points in only 30 minutes (no starter played more than 33) while Aldridge continued some strong play with 15 points and 10 rebounds as Portland waltzed to a 102-82 win.

Even with the win Portland's season was at a crossroads in a rematch against San Antonio at home:  West playoff competitors New Orleans, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and Utah all won.  If Portland couldn't pull off a win again the Spurs (which would be a 1-3 stretch), who got Tim Duncan back for this game, they would drop down to 7th in the West and only one game out of 9th.  Remarkably, Portland came out scorching hot and the Spurs were completely dominated from the outset.  The Blazers roared out to 64-37 halftime lead and were on cruise control in the second half, rolling to their second consectutive blowout win, 102-84.  Roy and Aldridge led the way with 26 points apiece with Steve Blake chipping in 15, but the big news was the defense- Portland held Parker to 15 points on 7-16 shooting and Duncan to 14 on 6-15 shooting.With the win the Blazers stuck at 5th in the West and are now only one game out of 1st in the division.

Three Things I liked

1. Defense

All season the bane of Portland's play has been defense, especially perimeter D and rotation of pick and roll.  Further evidence to this deficiency was in the first Spurs game, where Parker was the only main weapon and still couldn't be stopped despite added focus on him.  Then in the Minnesota game Roy began barking at teammates who missed assignments, and Joel Przybilla did the same.  Holding the T-Wolves to 82 points was nothing to write home about, other than it was a fine defensive effort.  The intensity carried over to the second Spurs game though, in a must win situation.  San Antonio only had 58 points through 3 quarters and only reached 84 because of the sloppy up-tempo play that dominates garbage time. 

More than just the stats, several Blazers seem to finally get it when it comes to defense.  Travis Outlaw, long a perimeter turnstile, actually shot less and focused on defense in both games.  Blake, who struggles in man to man situations, was Hell bent on stopping Parker, and despite being on an island against the All-Star much of the first half he held Parker to 8 first half points.  Now the key is keep up the defensive effort for the final 23 games in order to secure a decent playoff seed.

2. Joel Przybilla

Call me crazy, but Portland seems to do ok without Greg Oden in the lineup.  They are 5-2 in this current stretch without their "franchise center" and 9-4 on the season.  Joel is the biggest reason for this with his rebounding prowess and knack for hard-nosed post defense.  It was largely his work against Duncan that allowed Portland to jump out to their early lead against the Spurs.  He also is an enforcer-type hustle guy that every playoff team needs.  In Oden's absence since the All-Star break Przybilla has averaged 5.3 points, 10 rebounds, and just over 1 block in 26 minutes per game (the low playing time is largely due to 5 blowout wins/losses in those 7 games). I in fact contend that if/when Oden is healthy enough to return to action Joel should continue to start over Greg. 

3. Just hangin' in there

Since Portland has the youngest active roster in the NBA many pundits are predicting a slide from the Baby Blazers, but it just hasn't come.  Since mid-November the team has fluctuated between 2nd and 6th in the West but has always been well within the frames of the playoff picture.  As Portland has had second half slides in each of the past two seasons (mostly due to a lack of experience), it makes sense to expect a similar pattern.  However, since the halfway point Portland has been 12-6 with wins over Utah, New Orleans (on the road), Atlanta, and San Antonio.  The Blazers largely suck against the better West teams on the road (1-11 on the year), but take care of business at home (24-5) and against all teams in the East, both home and away (18-5).

Though Portland is just one game out of 1st in the Northwest Division, it's most likely that the Blazers will grab a lower seed (5-8) by beating the teams they are supposed to, grabbing a win from time to time against elite East teams, and losing the the best in the West on the road.  That late season slide doesn't seem to be coming this year.

Three Things I Didn't Like

1. Fire Away Fernandez

Rudy is a fine bench player, averagin in double digits on the season.  He's also a gunner in every sense.  As I recall he is supposed to be able to get inside and score, be a gifted passer, and be able to shoot the ball.  We've only seen one of those things so far: shooting.  And he isn't necessarily hitting his shots either.  Yet make or miss, you can bet the next time there is a crack of daylight on the perimeter he's jacking it up.  In the past four games he's shot 22 threes, but only hit six of them.  Three of those makes came against Minnesota, where he was a respectable 3-6 and scored 18 points in a strong effort.  In the other three games against San Antonio twice and Houston (the good teams, in other words) he was an atrocious 3-16 (18.7%).

Rudy also doesn't typically shoot himself out of slumps- he's either on or he's off.  He needs to realize this and stop shooting the deep shots when it's not falling.  He's effective at cutting to the basket, especially when Sergio Rodriguez is on the floor.  Maybe he should try that.  Or setting up other teammates.  Or putting the ball on the floor.  Anything besides jacking up more deep threes early in the shot clock.

2.  Greg Oden's continued absence

New update on Oden: he's out at least another four games.  This isn't really what bothers me.  Even if he misses those four games and two others he can still play in around 60 games, which isn't that unusual for a young big man (don't bring up Dwight Howard, we all know he is a freak in every way).  What concerns me is the nature in which the information has been released. 

Initially Oden wasn't expected to miss any time, then it was a day to day injury.  After two full weeks of day to day status it's finally been stretched out to a 7-10 days.  I worry that management is waiting for the season ticket renewal date to pass on March 4th before releasing news that Oden is done for the playoffs.  I also suspect the Blazer's management known for some time that this injury was worse than they let on and have been so blas'e about it to keep panic down (by the way, why are so many Blazer's fans freaking out about losing a guy that's averaging 9 and 7?  As I said earlier, Portland is playing basically as well without him.  A lot of fans are turning on him already, lay off bandwagon jumpers!).  I would be very upset if the higher-ups have been attempting to dupe the fans that have supported this team.

3.   Overplaying starters

This is nitpicking, but Portland had a good week.  In every blowout win there is some starter out on the floor with 5 minutes to go and a 20 points lead.  Against the Spurs it was Blake.  Against Minnesota it was Aldridge.  Back to the Clippers game it was both Roy and Przybilla.  This bothers me for two reasons: 1) Portland doesn't need anymore injuries to key players and 2) it's costing another talented young player minutes.  Against the Spurs the Blazers had a 25 point lead with 7 minutes to go and Sergio Rodriguez left the game for...Blake?  Bayless gets too few minutes and this was a great chance to give him some burn.  Portland's deep enough to put a capable body out there to run up and down the floor in garbage time.

Also of Note

For all the complaining I do about Rudy and Outlaw, Portland is lucky to have those two guys that are willing to come off the bench.  The Blazers are the only team in the NBA with two full time bench players that average in double figures, and additionally both of these guys are rather versatile.  On the season Rudy is among the better rookies in the league with 10.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, and 2.2 apg in only 26 mpg, while Outlaw contributes 12.2 ppg and 4.1 rpg in 27 mpg.  Both also shoot over 38% from three, and neither has started unless injury has necessitated it.

Rudy can play both the 2 and the 3 while Outlaw is in fact more useful as a power forward despite being officially listed as a small forward.  Such versatility allows Portland to use an effective small ball lineup of Blake, Roy, Rudy, Outlaw, and Aldridge.  It also lets Portland play big with Roy, Rudy, Outlaw, Aldridge and Joel (Oden when he's available).

The versatility of Portland's lineups allow them to adapt to a game's ebb and flow more effectively than a lot of teams, and these flexible lineups are largely due Rudy and Outlaw being able to play more than one position with equal ability.

Token Non-Blazer Thought

We need to get a set definition for what the MVP award really means.  I'm so sick of announcers and sports writers debating if it means which player is truly the best or which player means the most to his team.  The good news is that this year it doesn't matter.  Best player in the NBA?  Lebron James.  He's 2nd in the NBA in scoring, averages over seven assists and seven rebounds per game, and also throws in some legitimate All-NBA defense (how many blocks has he on layups off fast breaks?).  What's more is that he needs to be respected from downtown (33% from three), which only opens up his freight train drives to the rim, where he is the best finisher in the league.  There really isn't much questions that in terms of all-around overall talent James is the best there is.

As for who means most to their team, it has to be James.  Without Kobe the Lakers still contend for the playoffs in a murderous West.  Without Wade the Heat suck, but they aren't too terrific with him anyway.  Wade doesn't elevate the Heat into contender status.  Without James the Cavs are a 7 seed at best in the East, a .500 team maybe.  Mo Williams is a terrific second banana to James.  Those two go together like gin and tonic.  But Williams isn't capable of leading a team night in and night out.  And who is the second option without James?  West?  Big Z?  That team would not contend on a nightly basis.  With James the team completely clicks and is right now the best in the East and is challenging for the best record in the NBA.

Bottom line, James is the MVP of the league no matter what way you look at it.

The Week Ahead

Portland could make some big moves in either direction this week, though the cards are stacked for them to go up in the West.  First off is tonight against the Danny Granger-less Indiana Pacers who are on the second end of a back to back.  Indiana is in the cellar of the East and lack their star.  Portland has had two days off, is at home, and rocks against Eastern Conference teams.  All signs point to a Portland win, and I will follow those signs.  Portland should win this one effectively, if not in a blowout.

However, immediately following the Indiana game Portland hops on a plane for Denver in a showdown that should determine the leader of the NW Division.  Denver's been slumping lately with losses to Indiana and Detroit in their last two and are only 2-5 in their last 7.  However, Carmelo Anthony comes back from a one game suspension that likeyl cost them the Detroit game and get Portland on the road (where they are only 13-17) and on the second end of a back to back.  I don't see Portland winning this game, much as I'd like them to.  I also predict that following the loss the Blazers forums will be flooded with delusional fans blaming the refs, calling for Coach McMillan to be fired, and lamenting the fact that Kevin Pritchard didn't make a trade.

On Saturday the Blazers once again get the losing cure-all: the Minnesota Timberwolves.  With a win Portland would sweep the season series, and I don't see it going down any other way.  Roy always torches the Timberwolves, and Minnesota is in the midst of a 7 game losing streak.  I don't often call for blowout wins, but I'd be surprised if this game is within 15 points.

A really big test comes Monday when the LA Lakers come to Portland.  At first you would think Portland is in big trouble with this one, what with LA dominating the first two meetings and being the best team in the NBA and all.  However, the Lakers have "struggled" of late with losses in two of their last three.  Also there's the fact that LA hasn't won in Portland in a long time.  Maybe it's the homerism shining through.  Maybe it's the fact that I hate LA.  Or maybe I'm just crazy and delusional.  But I say Portland wins.  This is the least confident and most hopeful I've been in any prediction thus far, and thus LA will probably win by 20, but I stand by my prediction.

Parting Thought

It's 3:15 AM.  I'm tired.  My parting thought is that I've had a terrific day, Portland is still in the playoff hunt, and I'm very happy.  I hope everyone else is having a good day.  That is all.