David Johnson, Matthew Stafford, Curtis Painter, Ben Olson, Hunter Cantwell, Graham Harrell, Chris Pizzotti, Josh Freeman, Nate Longshore, Nate Davis, Mark Sanchez, Chris Crane, Rhett Bomar, Chase Holbrook, Pat White, Patrick Cowan, Mike Reilly, Cullen Harper, Stephen McGee, Jason Boltus, Tom Brandstater, John Parker Wilson, Brian Hoyer, Nathan Brown, Todd Boeckman, Chase Daniel, Rudy Carpenter, Drew Willy, Mike Teel, Willie Tuitama, and Sean Glennon.
History shows us that, on average, only 13 of these 31 collegiate quarterbacks will actually be selected in the 2009 draft. That's a mere 42%. Yet, every one of the names you see listed above is considered draft-worthy by at least a few of the more respected experts out there. Obviously, since opinions vary on talent and potential, everyone cannot be right. The question then becomes: Who are the 13 lucky quarterbacks that will hear their names called in April?
History informs us that, on average, three quarterbacks will be selected in the first round, one in the second, two in the third, one in the fourth, two in the fifth, two in the sixth, and two in the seventh. The next step, then, is to place names from the above list into those slots.
Now, I love following the draft, and every year I do my best to keep tabs on the top pro prospects in the college ranks, but I am no expert. I'm willing to admit that there are names in that list that I've barely even heard of, let alone watched on TV. As a result, if I were to compose a list of my favorites, they would naturally be dominated by the names with which I'm the most familiar. That would not be a fair system.
Therefore, I decided to take the matter to the draft experts, who actually get paid to breakdown a year's worth of game footage. I polled their lists, added them up, and then calculated each prospect's average draft ranking. This seemed like the fairest way of compiling a list that was as free as possible from bias.
History tells us that this is how the 2009 NFL Draft will unfold:
John Parker Wilson
David Johnson, Ben Olson, Chris Pizzotti, Nate Longshore, Chris Crane, Chase Holbrook, Patrick Cowan, Mike Reilly, Stephen McGee, Jason Boltus, Brian Hoyer, Todd Boeckman, Chase Daniel, Rudy Carpenter, Drew Willy, Mike Teel, Willie Tuitama, and Sean Glennon.
If it were up to me, I wouldn't let Johnson, Daniel, Carpenter, and Teel go undrafted. A few experts were also relatively high on Reilly, McGee, Willy, and Holbrook. All-in-all, it will be really interesting to see how this plays out in the end. Should we trust our draft history? We'll know the answer for sure in two months.
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