NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 9, 2009

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, Butler (Horizon)
6: Marquette, California, Gonzaga, Texas
7: Tennessee (SEC), Arizona State, Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, St. Mary???s (WCC), Penn State
10: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Wisconsin
11: Michigan, UNLV (MWC), Creighton, Ohio State
12: Utah St. (WAC), Arizona, Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), VCU (CAA), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Weber State (Big Sky), Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit)
15: Charleston (Southern), Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy)
16: RADFORD(Big South), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Texas A&M, Michigan, Arizona, Northern Iowa, Binghamton, Charleston, Radford, Morehead State
OUT: Kansas State, Providence, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Vermont, VMI, Tennessee-Martin

Last Four In: Creighton, Ohio State, Auburn, Arizona
Last Four Out: Kansas State, Providence, New Mexico, South Carolina
Next Four Out: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
West Coast: 2/9
MVC: 2/10
A-10: 2/14

If you have questions, comments, or uninhibited hatred, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

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March 10, 2009 12:16 AM ET

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Let???s call this the best 34 at-large team edition. After agonizing over including an unprecedented 8th team from the Big Ten, I wilted and included Ohio State over Kansas State, who may earn an at-large bid without winning in the Big XII Tournament (likely versus Texas). Do I think that the Big Ten will carry 8 bids on Selection Sunday? Not really. However, for this last week, I am going to let the basketball do the talking. The week that just ended has been like reading tea leaves through a thick London fog.

Among the top seeds, Louisville replaced Duke on the 1 line. Why? Louisville won the Big East outright and finished 2-1 against the teams who have double byes in the Big East Tournament. It???s all about who you have beaten, and where and when you beat them. When you put that together, Louisville is a top 4 team. If one of the top 3 Big East teams do not make the semifinals and Michigan State or Wake Forest win their conference tournaments, then they may steal the final #1 seed.

Beyond determining the final at-large bids, Championship Week will have an immense say in seed lines 4 through 8, which is as settling as a bad hairpiece. At this juncture, I am projecting that 22 at-large bids have been locked up, leaving 12 bids for the taking. Among our last 12 in are 5 (count ???em, 5) Big Ten teams! If Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State lose in succession coupled with a Notre Dame or a Georgetown making the Big East semis, then we may see as few as 5 teams in from the Big Ten. Stranger things have happened.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due To Seeding Conflicts?
Marquette

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Butler