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I don't mean to toot my own horn, but I've only missed on six game predictions all year, and two of those were the two Spurs games where I predicted they would split the series but just wasn't sure how.  Now, before you start worshipping me and asking me for betting assistance, I should point out that Portland has become a very easy team to predict.  Portland thrives against sub-.500 teams and the East.  They are weaker against over .500 teams and the West.  And finally, they are outstanding at home and pretty bad on the road.  So, in order to predict results just look at the combinations of those factors.  An East team over .500 on the road?  Predict a loss unless there is a mitigating circumstance because there are two negatives (over .500, on the road) and only one positive (Eastern).  Over .500 team from the West on the road?  Loss every time (Portland is 1-12 in those games).  Under .500 team at home?  Win every time (LAC being the one exception).  So it's really quite simple.  Okay, now you can worship me.

Week in Review

3-1 (40-23 overall, 5th in the West)

The first game of the week was Jarret Jack's long-awaited return to Portland when the Pacers came to town.  Okay, nobody really cared that much but returning Blazers always seem to play exceptionally well.  This game was a bit different, with Jack only scoring 17 on 7-16 shooting.  Indiana as team played well, however, and led by as many as 14 in the second half.  Fortunately, Portland has the most 10+ point comebacks in the league this year (13).  Brandon Roy drew a foul on a drive to the basket with 1.7 seconds to go and converted both shots, giving Portland a 107-105 lead.  Jack then missed an open 27 footer at the buzzer and Portland walked out with the win.  For the game Roy led Portland with 28 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists while Lamarcus Aldridge kept up his fine play with 21 points and 7 rebounds.  Travis Outlaw added 21 and Joel Pyrzbilla chipped in 10 and 12.  Marquis Daniels led Indiana with 28 points.

The next game was a pivotal road game the following night against the division-leading Nuggets.  The winner of the game would lead the division.  It was a road game against a West opponent and so naturally Portland was never competitive after the 1st quarter.  Carmelo Anthony, in his first game back after his one game suspension, torched the Blazers for 38 points in 38 minutes and led Denver to a  predictable 106-90 victory.  Roy led the Blazers with 22 points, while Travis Outlaw threw in 15 and 6 rebounds. Aldridge had 19 but only 4 rebounds and never really got into the flow of the game after a strong first quarter.

Nothing cures your ailes like playing the Timberwolves, especially at home.  Minnesota has truly struggled since Al Jefferson tore his ACL, and so I thought Portland would simply roll in this one.  However, Portland was clearly looking past this game to the Lakers and the Wolves were ready to take advantage.  The Blazer led for most of the game but never got up by more than eight.  Ryan Gomes had a season high 28 points and hit a three with 10 seconds left to pull Minnesota within one.  After a foul Roy split two free throws, leaving the door open with 4 seconds left, but when Randy Foye (whom Portland traded for Roy back in 2006) missed a 28 footer Portland once again survived an open long three to beat a sub-.500 team at home, 95-93.  Roy once again led the way with 31 points along with six assists and four rebounds while Outlaw kept up some great late season play with 14 points and 9 rebounds.  Aldridge had a horrendous shooting game (2-14) but got to the line regularly and hit 11-12 from there.  he finished with 15 points and 11 rebounds.  Gome's 28 led the way and Foye added 23.

The defining game of the week and possibly the season came on Monday when the League-leading Lakers came to town.  Los Angeles hadn't won in Portland since 2005 when Damon Stoudamire and Ruben Patterson were playing for the Blazers, and they were pumped to end another streak as they had all season.  Portland had other plans.

Defense was the key early on, especially the services providen by Pryzbilla inside on Pau Gasol and 20 year old rookie Nicolas Batum on Kobe Bryant.  Portland played it's pace on offense and forced LA into long jumpers, which they just weren't hitting.  After one Portland led 25-16, but you had to figure LA would bust out eventually and Portland would have to just hold on.  However, the bench played terrifically in the second period on both sides of the ball.  Outlaw scored 17 points in the quarter and received strong contributions from Rudy Fernandez and Channing Frye.  It was mostly the 2nd unit that opened the game up.  At halftime Portland was manufacturing a good old fashoned beatdown and led 61-38.  

The third quarter was more of the same: Roy got any shot he wanted, Aldridge and Joel controlled the pain and the defense kept the pressure on.  Rudy also literally could not miss; toward the end of the third he hit a three to put Portland up 30, and that's when things got ugly.  In the closing seconds of the third Portland stole the ball and were on a fast break.  Rudy streaked ahead of everyone, got the ball, and went up for an open layup.  Trevor Ariza fould him hard from behind and sent him sprawling awkwardly to the floor.  The foul led to a scuffle between the two teams, with Roy getting right in Ariza's face.  Rudy lay there for 10 full minutes before being taken off the floor in a stretcher with a neck brace on.  Ariza was assessed a Flagrant 2 and ejected, but the air left the building.  Kobe caught on and helped pull LA within 12 with about seven minutes to go, but Roy and Aldridge made enough plays down the stretch to prevent the Lakers from mounting any serious comeback attempt and eventually the Blazers won easily, 111-94.

Up and down the roster Blazer players turned in outstanding performances.  Roy predictably led the way with 27 points, Outlaw finished with 22, Aldridge had 16 and 11 rebounds, Joel had 12 points and 18 rebounds, and Rudy finished 4-4 from the floor, 2-2 from three, and 1-1 from the line for 11 points before leaving the game.  Kobe led the Lakers with 26 points but only shot 11-29, while Gasol added 18 and 13 rebounds. 

The follow-up on Rudy is that he's been released from the hospital with a hip pointer and bruised ribs/chest.  He should be able to return in a week or so.  

Three Things I Liked:

1. Roy:

Yes, I know it's redundant, but Roy was especially important to the Blazers' success this week.   His numbers over the past four games were typical strong Roy-like numbers (27 points, 5.3 assists, 4 rebounds), but aren't really what made his work exceptional.  First, his clutch play against Minnesota and Indiana is largely what led to those wins.  In the last two minutes of a close game the offense is simple: Roy one on one at the top of the arc.  He either gets to the upper corner of the key (his favorite spot-up shot), drives for a layup or foul, or gets doubled and passes it to the open man.  He's as clutch as anyone in the NBA, at the same level as Dwyane Wade, Kobe, or Lebron.  

The other reason that I've decided to highlight Roy this week is his leadership.  Immediately after Ariza's foul on Rudy, Roy was in his face.  He didn't start a fight, but he made it very clear that such behavior would NOT be tolerated in the Rose Garden.  Roy also has made a point of making his teammates accountable on defense, something he has been uncomfortable with in the past.  So his growth as a player has been two fold; first there are his obvious improvements as a scorer, and second there is his growth and increasing willingness to embrace his role as the team's heart and soul.

Due to his huge plays down the stretch in two games and all-around performance he is my Blazers MVP of the Week.

2. Travis Outlaw playing like he should:

God help me, I can't quit Outlaw anymore.  Outlaw has finally shown a willingness to hit the glass and focus on defense, not to mention his more consistent offense of late.  In the past four games Outlaw has had 18 points and 5.3 rebounds per game with 57% shooting.  Along with Roy, Outlaw made several big plays down the stretch against the Pacers, Timberwolves, and Lakers; in fact he's been Portland second best 4th quarter player all year long.   The great thing about his scoring is that he can always get a clean look due to his length (6'9" with Gumby arms) and terrific leaping ability.  While I don't approve of him straying to the outside so much, his jumpshot has been effective of late.  He also looksto get inside a lot more and due to his tremendous hang time he can also get off a lot of good shots in the paint.  Also, he usually is a spark when the offense stagnates.  If nobody else is hitting their shots, you can count on Outlaw to hit his (and vice versa, sadly).

All the scoring is nice, but what really has elevated Outlaw in recent games has been his hustle and rebounding.  He didn't get a single board against LA, but grabbed 6, 6, and 9 in the other three.  He does the little things that he he never did before too: setting screens, diving for loose balls, and rotating correctly on defense more than half the time.

If Outlaw can keep up this style of play, even if the scoring comes back to average, I will no longer request him being traded and accept him as an integral part of this team's future championship runs.

3. Joel making us say "Greg who?":

As Greg Oden continues to recover from a fractured kneecap that is more serious than the team led us to believe, Joel Przybilla (I try to spell it different every time) has anchored the middle with incredible effectiveness.  His offense is limited to putbacks and point-blank layups, but Aldridge has done a nice job of picking up the inside scoring slack and Joel doesn't have to worry about it.  What Joel isn't limited with is intensity, rebounding, defense, and more rebounding.  

In the past four games Pryzbilla had 12, 12, 3 (with a severe flu), and 18 rebounds against the Pacers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Lakers respectively.  He's also the leading rebounder (8.3 in 22.8 minutes a game) on the second best rebounding team in the NBA.  He's big, strong, and tough and is amongst the best at fighting for position, even amongst the best centers the league has to offer.

On defense he plugs a lot of the holes created by a below average defense.  While he doesn't block a eye-popping number of shots (about 1 per game), he changes shots from driving guards with regularity.  When defending post-up players he forces them off their game.  He wouldn't let Tim Duncan get in any sort of rythm and rendered Gasol a non-factor for the first three quarters of the Lakers game.

With all the rookie struggles Oden has had it's fair to say the Joel has been every bit as important to the team's success as Roy.

Three Things I Didn't Like

1. Trevor Ariza:

Okay, it wasn't a malicious foul.  I really don't think he meant to hurt Rudy and did just get overexcited and overaggressive.  However, he took a swipe at a player's head who had a clear path to the basket in a 30 point game.  It looked like a send-a-message foul, but in that situation there really wasn't a message to send.  The game was as good as over, there's no need to make a foul like that.  And then to still have the cajones to pull the typical "what, me?" face when the whistle blew?  That was what sent me (and Roy) over the edge.

Word came out that Ariza will not be suspended, and I actually agree since it wasn't like he was attacking Rudy.  However, Ariza just added his name to the list of hated players in Portland, joinging the likes of Lamar Odom, Kevin Garnett, and Darius Miles.

2.  Continued road woes:

With the key loss to the Nuggets Portland dropped to 1-12 against the other 8 West playoff contenders (or more accurately, the other 7 plus Phoenix).  That single win came when Chris Paul missed half the third and the entire 4th in the last game against the Hornets, so it deserves a major asterisk.  Outside of those game Portland is a respectable 12-6 on the road, but I don't really care if they beat Charlotte or Memphis on the road.  That's just taking care of business.  The big games, especially this time of year, are against the other potential playoff teams.

The good news is that Portland compensates somewhat by being awesome at home.  They also only have two remaining road games against the West contenders as opposed to five home games and they are 8-2 at home against said teams, which means that they stand a good chance of moving up in the rankings as well as creating some beneficial tie-breaking scenarios.  The bad news is that in the playoffs they will basically need homecourt advantage to win a series, since I don't believe they are capable of stealing a road game in a playoff atmosphere.  Not with what they've shown so far.

3. Being lied to:

Remember last week when I said something seemed fishy about Greg Oden's injury situation?  Well, it turn out that doctors knew full well the moment the knee was evaluated that this injury would likely be a 6 week recovery.  However, the ever-optimistic trainers and management listed Oden as "day-to-day" due to some decent mobility at the outset.  Obviously, at this point it's clear that the 6 week timetable was the accurate prediction, which makes sense since it was made by DOCTORS.  You know, people who went to medical school and are qualified to make such predictions.  I'm still not sure why the team said his recovery would take such a short time, but it did wonders to damage his reputation.

Had the team just come out and said he could take as long as 6 weeks it would have been a blow initially, but the fans would have recovered and accepted it.  Instead many questioned Oden's heart and desire, since he was taking weeks to recover from what was supposed to be a day-to-day injury.  It also led many to believe he doesn't heal quickly, when in fact he's a little ahead of a six week return as it looks like he'll be back in another week or so.  Basically, due to the team's mismanagement of this injury Oden's reputation has been severely damaged, when it's still likely that he will play in around 60 games, which is usual for a rookie center.

Also of Note

Apparently Roy's little motivational speech following the loss to San Antonio on February 25th was effective.  Roy basically pointed out the fact that nobody was being held accountable on defense and the team's greatest weakness was lackluster D.  From that point on Roy, along with Przybilla, vowed to simultaneously step up their defensive game and call out other players when they made defensive mistake.  With this newfound focus on defense the Blazers have had some incredible defensive performances.

Since that loss to the Spurs the team has given up an average of 94 points per game and have won five of six.  But it goes beyond the number of points given up.  It's who they've locked down on and how they've done it that's shown the growth.  In the next game against the Spurs, who got Tim Duncan back, the Blazers only allowed 84 points.  Against the Pacers the defense locked down in the 4th, allowing only 19 points which opened the door for yet another Portland comeback.  And the rout of the Lakers was largely due to stellar individual and team defense that only gave up 38 points in the first half.

The major difference has simply been an increase in defensive effort.  Guards are fighting through picks, players are hustling on rotations, and the big men work for stronger defensive positioning (Joel being the exception as he has done that all season).  The high point was that first half against LA, but it's been a noticable difference ever since that loss to the Spurs.  It looks like it may be a permanent change.

Token Non-Blazers Thought

Nothing really.  Playoffs are coming up so I put most of my focus on Portland.  Just some quick-hit thoughts:

- does anyone care about the World Baseball Classic?

- I highly doubt Terrel Owens is gonna make any major difference in Buffalo

- Lebron James is good at basketball.  Very good.

- Dwyane Wade has been better than Lebron in the past two weeks, and I owe a lot of fantasy basketball success to him.

- I'm getting really tired of the "Bubble Watch."  It's not like any of those bubble teams are gonna make a significant impact in the NCAA tournament.

- The Eagles employee made a major mistake calling out his employer on facebook, but I don't think that it warrented his termination.

- Shaq has been much better lately, but not nearly good enough to allow for the level of trash talk he's been unleashing.

The Week Ahead

Things start off with an important matchup against Dallas tonight in Portland.  Dallas is only 1.5 games back of the Blazers in the bunched up West playoff race, so this game counts double.  A Blazers win puts them 2.5 games up on the 8th seed, a loss puts them a half game up.  There's also the fact that Dallas is one of two West playoff teams to beat Portland at home, so the Blazers will be looking for revenge.  Portland is going to not have Rudy or Oden either.  Still, it's at home where Portland is nearly unbeatable.  Also, Aldridge and Outlaw have been playing very well lately.  This will be a Portland win.

Next up is New Jersey on Friday night.  This should be another ho-hum Portland win wince it's an East team coming to Portland.  I really don't see this going any other way and don't feel the need to elaborate on it other than to say this is a game Portland should win and they've won most of those this year.

After New Jersey Portland starts a five game East road trip, starting with Atlanta on Sunday.  The Hawks, as I've mentioned before, are like Portland in a lot of ways.  They are talented, young, and successful.  Portland won by ten in Portland in the previous matchup between these two teams, and I think the Hawks are going to return the favor.  I see the Hawks pulling a bit of an upset here.

The week concludes Monday in Memphis on the second of a back to back.  Portland is over .500 on the second end of a back to back, and in case you haven't heard the Grizzlies suck.  Portland also doesn't lose consecutive games much (only five times all year) and, finally, the Grizzlies suck.  Portland should clean up here, going 3-1 for the week.

Playoff Watch

Portland currently sits in the 5th spot in the West, a mere half game behind 4th place Utah.  They are also three back of 2nd place San Antonio, but the way the Spurs close out seasons it doesn't seem likely Portland will catch them.  It is possible for them to keep pace with Utah because I don't think Utah will win out (though the way they've been playing I'm not 100% sure on that).  I'd say the most realistically optimistic finish for Portland is the 3 seed.

On the negative side of things, Portland is only a half game up on New Orleans, one game up on Denver, and 1.5 up on Dallas.  One slip and they could drop down to the 8 seed.  However, 9th place Phoenix has been sliding and is 6.5 back of Portland right now, so the playoffs look like a very good possibility.  If Portland completely collapses and goes 9-10 to finish the season, Phoenix still has to close at 15-3 to catch them.  I don't think either scenario is really a possibility.

At the start of the season the ultimate goal for Portland was a return to the playoffs, and it looks like they will do that.  With a few good breaks they'll get home court in the first round, and if that happens they should advance to the second round, which would be far more than any Blazermaniac could hope for at the start of the season. 

As I've mentioned frequently, it's a good time to be a Blazers fan.