On the FanNation homepage their is a link (http://www.slate.com/id/2185975/) to a website where a man has created a system to let the fans know when its time to give up hope. Remember the famous quote "It ain't over 'til it's over"? Forget it with this system.
Here's the system Bill James has created. Take the number of points one team is aheadTake the number of points one team is ahead, subtract three, add a half-point if the team that is ahead has the ball, and subtract a half-point if the other team has the ball (Numbers less than zero become zero), and square that. If the result is greater than the number of seconds left in the game, the lead is safe.
Here's the system Bill James has created. Take the number of points one team is aheadTake the number of points one team is ahead, subtract three, add a half-point if the team that is ahead has the ball, and subtract a half-point if the other team has the ball (Numbers less than zero become zero), and square that. If the result is greater than the number of seconds left in the game, the lead is safe.
Does the system work? I believe it would about 90% of the time. The 10% left out would be games that are called "miracles" or just plain "comebacks". I was going to test it, but all the games I can see are either over or just starting. So later I'll test this and will report my findings.
Cintia Dicker
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