With the bulk of free agency now behind us, I'm ready to take a stab at my annual futile attempts to predict what the Patriots will do in the draft. I did predict the trade-down from 7 to 10 correctly last year, but that's been about the only time I've gotten it right. In my defense, nobody really ever predicts the Pats drafts correctly. Bellichick values players differently than most, which is what makes him great, but also makes him hard to pin down.
So what do we know? We know the Pats aren't going to draft a corner in the first round. The addition of Springs and Bodden suddenly gives the Pats 5 CBs (Springs, Bodden, Hobbs, Wheatley, and Willhite) who are capable of significant playing time. Bodden was a great pick-up as he excelled in Cleveland in 2007 in Romeo Crennel's system. Springs is older, but brings a physicality that the pats have been missing at corner since Ty Law left.
At the same time the Pats were stocking up on CBs, they lost Mike Vrabel, making LB a huge need. They've only got 2 legit starters in Thomas and Mayo, plus a solid role-player in Bruschi. They've got some good youth for depth, with Guyton inside and Woods, Crable, and the returning Banta-Cain outside. The Pats might be willing to roll the dice outside, hoping that one of the three can pull the starter position, but they definitely need a starter inside. However I think the board will dictate which LB position they go for -- if a talented LB falls to them at 23, I think they make the pick.
The LBs I see that could be available at 23 are Larry English (N. Ill.), Brian Cushing (USC), Clay Matthews (USC), James Laurinitis (OSU), and my sleeper choice, Michael Johnson (Ga Tech). Johnson is a reach at the 23rd pick, plus he's more of a project at OLB since he played DE in college. But he's 266 pounds and runs a 4.6 40, meaning he's got the perfect size and speed for a 3-4 OLB. I think if he falls to the 34th pick, he's a Patriot.
I'm not going to even try to guess which LB the Pats will go after -- Bellichick knows what he's looking for, and it's not something you can measure at the combine. Just like Mayo was the perfect fit for the Pats last year, Bellichick will pick his guy based on how well he thinks he fits the system.
Of course if the Pats find a gift at 23, they'll totally change their draft to take advantage of it. I think the player that might cause that this year is Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew is the best TE in the draft, but he ran a slow (4.87) 40 at the combine, so there's now a chance that he might slip into the second half of the first round. If he falls to 23, he's a Patriot. TE isn't a huge need with the Baker signing, but Watson is in his last year before free agency, and Thomas is not the answer. The value of Pettigrew is too much to pass up at 23, and Bellichick has a history of first round TE picks (remember, he took Watson in the first round during Graham's final season with the Pats.)
I don't think the Patriots will stay put in the draft. I see them trading up this year rather than down. BB is going to target certain players, then go after them. The Pats have 4 picks in the first two rounds, plus their 3rd rounder and what will probably be an extra conditional pick at the end of the third round (waiting for official word on that.) That's 6 picks in the first 3 rounds -- the Pats simply don't need 6 players. If they do select 6 guys, their late round picks become somewhat expendable, allowing them to move up a few spots in the earlier rounds to make sure they get the guys they want.
I see the Pats looking for 2 LBs, a Safety, a D-Lineman or two, and a WR. The Pats have two starting safeties in Merriweather and Sanders, but they need depth. I think the Pats might surprise and grab Sean Smith from Utah with the 34th overall pick. He's got both corner and safety skills, making him a great option for the 'big nickel' that Bellichick likes. Sherrod Martin and William Moore are two other second round safety candidates. Martin is fast (4.5 40) for a safety, and would project more as a cover guy than a 'hitter.'
The Pats will definitely pick a D-Lineman in the first two rounds. They are fine with starters, but they need depth with the departure of Mike Wright. They also need to look for Seymour's replacement, since he's a free agent at the end of the 2009 season. The Pats will look to extend Wilfork before the season starts, leaving them little room to work a deal with Seymour. I think Tyson Jackson (LSU) is a real possibility in the top of the second round. He's a little small (297 lbs) for a true 3-4 lineman, but he could play DE. The problem is, that leaves nobody backing up Wilfork in the middle. I'd look for a 3rd or 4th round pick DT who can be a back-up at both DE and DT -- tough to find, so probably looking at 'reaching' for a guy with a 4th or 5th round grade in the 3rd or 4th round.
Now, I just said that the Pats could be looking for both a safety and a LB at the top of round 2 -- that's where I think the trade-up comes into play. I think they grab a LB at 23, a safety or LB at 34, then use either the 47th or 58th pick paired with a lower pick to move up and get another player near the top of round 2. For example, the 47th pick plus the Pats 3rd rounder (89) would get them up to the 33rd pick, and the Lions would love to trade down and add more picks. The Pats 58th plus their 3rd rounder gets them to about the 43 slot, which would be good if their guy is still there (whomever that guy is.) Or the Pats could ship their 47th overall pick plus their 4th rounder to get into the 41-42 range. I think it's extremely likely that they'll move up in the seccond round unless...
They decide to try to bank picks for next year. And if the opportunity arises, you know they're going to take it. They always do, and the entire league knows it. If somebody wants the 47th pick and is willing to give up next year's first rounder to get it, Bellichick will make the deal in a second. With 3 second rounders, if there's no trade-up, a trade for future picks is very likely.
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They also need depth on the O-Line. Good point about trading up or getting picks for next year because there is a slim chance all of the players they draft make the team. I don't see them using all of the second round picks because if they use all of the later round picks in addition it would be wasting resources especially when their gearing up for another super bowl this year.
SJPASCO
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Exactly right on all accounts. O-Line is definitely a possibility. It's a good draft for O-Line, and I think they could get a really solid contributor at the bottom of the second round -- either a right tackle, where they've struggled, or an interior player to back up Mankins and the often injured Neal, who are both in the last years of their contract. But they just resigned Britt, so I'm not sure that they'll go that way. I definitely think that if they don't go O-Line in the second then they'll take a shot with a later pick and hope to hit gold like they did with Koppen (5th round)
mike_m235
Apo, AE
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Good blog.
I don't see them going offensive line in the first round.
I have really liked Brian Cushing for a long time and Clint Sintim just as much, maybe even more. We need a pass rusher and Clint Sintim would be perfect for that.
You say Michael Johnson is your sleeper pick, which I think may be a good call, but I don't like Johnson at all. I think he is too one dimensional to be an OLB, especially for the Patriots. Last year was the only year at Georgia Tech that he played a part in running situations.
I can see the first two picks playing out something like this:
23rd: Brian Cushing, Larry English or Clint Sintim (my favorite)
35th: James Laurinatis (eh) or a safety like William Moore or Louis Delmas. I think a safety is more likely.
'Ey
Boston, MA
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This is a fairly good blog. My thanks for an educated glance at the Pats. I think wide receiver could be an interesting pick in the second round. There are some real possibilities out side of the known wide outs in this draft. Larry English might be a good first rounder. There is something about Cushing and Sintim that leave me unsettled. But that's me. I don't think Pettigrew is a good fit for The Pats. There are better TEs in this draft than him. Only time will tell.
Perfectpats
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Thanks for the comments.
Ey -- do you really think Sintim goes as high as 23? I think he could still be there at 34, at which point he'd be a great pickup.
Perfectpats -- I think there are better receiving TEs in the draft, but not better combination guys. Pettigrew is more like a Graham -- he's going to be a great blocker and average in the pass game. I think WR in the 2nd round is definitely a possibility -- especially if one of the top round guys slips to 34. I definitely see them getting a WR at some point, so if they don't do it in the 2nd I'd look for someone at the bottom of the 3rd or 4th. Obviously they've got 2 great receivers already, but they do need added options for the spread attack. Greg Lewis is a decent veteran at a good price, so he'll be in the mix for the #3 slot, or at least the #4 slot.
mike_m235
Apo, AE
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I don't know, it's possible. But I'd take him just to get such a good pass-rusher, which we badly need.
'Ey
Boston, MA
Total Comments (6933)
One thing to keep in mind, they can always have Harrison playing safety, so he provides depth.
Schadenfreude -…
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Maybe, but he's not signed a contract at this point. He's a free agent. I'm not sure if he's coming back or hanging up the cleats. Regardless, I'd really love to see another young safety anyway, then if Harrison comes back, the kid gets 10 or 15 snaps a game and develops for next year. At the same time, it would hopefully keep Harrison intact throughout the season so he's available in the playoffs.
mike_m235
Apo, AE
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Good blog! You are right we never know what Belichick will do, even more so this year without Scott Pioli and with Floyd now in the box with Bill.
I agree with 2 LBs on the first day, but think they will take an OLB earlier rather than later as it is all about the pass rush and getting to the QB in Belichick's 3-4, we still miss a McGinest type here. Then a ILB late in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (where Bruschi and Ted Johnson were picked up).
Although they have since signed Wright they still need DL depth with Seymour (and possibly Jarivs Green) most likely gone at the end of the season.
Now I agree with Safety over CB with Springs and Bodden signed and it gives Wheatley and Wilhite another year to mature. The Pats still need a young WR and a future OL as Neal and Kaczur are players that may not be around too much longer.
I hope we do not take another TE in the first round. When Graham and Watson were taken, we were pretty stable on DEF and the offense needed improvement. Now it is the other way around.
BAMNATION
Thompson , CT
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About the only area Pats have not addressed in free agency are players to remedy the lack of pass rush that was displayed last season. Pats are well positioned to take the best players available on the board with their early picks. The only certainty is that they will take a lb w/ one of theyre 1st three selections. Besides that they will be flexiible regarding the numerous possible scenarios which may unfold They most certainly will not take James Laurinatis w/ their early picks. . He will likely drop to middle or late 2nd round. Matthews is also a reach up until the very end of round 2. In 1st round we will see a big run on defensive players after the top O linemen are selected. Due to this, legit rb's & wr's may slip down into patriot land (late round 1 thru 2nd round).
1st three picks = ? Lb ?. ? could be Rb Safety O line Dline ... whatever drops into the basket. Thats what makes Pat draft fun.
RCR
Aurora , CO
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