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I don't think anyone can deny the fact that the Big East was the toughest and most competitive conference in the nation this year, but that doesn't necessarily equal NCAA Tournament success for the Louisville's, Pittsburgh's, Connecticut's, and Villanova's of the world. No team is safe come March Madness, but the Big East teams are particularly vulnerable because of the tight-game style of play they were unfortunately forced into throughout the regular season.

Now some of you are probably thinking, "Unfortunately?" Isn't it a good thing that Syracuse, Marquette, and West Virginia are accustomed to close finishes? Well under basic governing logic, yes. But basic logic isn't enough when attempting to project collective success in the unpredictable tourney brackets. The Big East teams are too comfortable in close games. They are too willing to let the outcome determine itself in the closing two minutes of a contest. A high comfort level doesn't have to translate into a high success rate. In fact, no correlation is guaranteed. You can feel like you're going to win as long as the game is within your grasp near the finish, but you can fail because of any number of factors including bad luck and poor officiating, to name a couple. Of course, you could simply be outclassed by your opponent.

Getting to the specifics, Louisville and UConn pulled lucky draws. I expect Louisville to take advantage of theirs, running through Ohio St., Wake Forest, and Kansas to reach the Final Four. Wake Forest and Kansas should both be able to contend with Louisville, but they're not nearly as threatening as Florida St. and Duke are to Pittsburgh in the East Region. In part because Louisville is a more explosive, and frankly, better team than Pitt, and also because Florida St. and Duke are more capable of a runaway victory than Wake or Kansas. 

Of any team in the condensed field of 64, Louisville is likely the safest bet to reach the championship game. They're probably the second best team in the country, though that's far from an absolute statement. The Cardinals are the safest bet because of their draw, more than anything else. They'll be the most successful Big East team in the postseason. 

UConn, on the other hand, is just one of those teams...one of those teams that will find a way to lose when they shouldn't. Sure the injury to Jerome Dyson will hurt them no matter what, but the Huskies should stroll to the Elite Eight past the likes of Chattanooga, Texas A & M, and Washington. I have UConn losing to Memphis in the Elite Eight, because I just can't see Connecticut winning four straight games against decent-to-strong teams. I went to UConn; trust me, this particular group -- Hasheem Thabeet, A.J. Price, Jeff Adrien, Stanley Robinson, Craig Austrie -- they just don't have it in them. As a unit they've won zero Big East Tournament games, and zero NCAA Tournament games. They'll only make a little noise this year because of a favorable draw. Still, they won't reach the Final Four, they simply aren't capable.

Anyone who picks Pitt to win it all is in for a rude awakening. Pitt's a fine team, nearly as good as Louisville and superior to UConn, but they don't have the pull-away mentality. They don't score in bunches or suffocate teams to the point where they're leading by 30 points; instead they grind out tough, tight victories time after time. That's exactly the type of team you need to stay away from when predicting the NCAA Championship game, or even the Final Four for that matter. Can a team that seemingly always plays two or three point games really beat Tennessee, Florida St., and Duke consecutively? Even if they inexplicably pull off that task, can they beat North Carolina to reach the finals after that?

No way. Not a chance. I'm sorry, Pitt fans. I have Duke over Pitt in the Elite Eight, and I've never had Duke in the Final Four before. Ever. I hate Coach K and I'm always skeptical of his physically soft groups, but this is how sure I am that Pitt won't win four consecutively (including the opening round game against Eastern Tennessee, though that should be a relatively easy one). 

As for the remainder of the Big East:

West Virginia out in the second round, Marquette out in the Sweet Sixteen, Villanova out in the second round, and Syracuse out in the Sweet Sixteen. 

All that wear and tear's not a good thing...trust me.