FanNation - The Republic of Sport

I feel low on energy already.  It's only 1 AM and I have to work until 8:30.  It's gonna be a long night.  Forgive me if this is a half-assed edition.  I still love the Blazers, but focus has not been my strong point as of late.

Week in Review

2-2 (42-25 overall, 5th in Western Conference)

I was close this week.  I only missed on one game.  Too bad it was a crucial one.  The first game of the week Portland welcomed Dallas to the Rose Garden.  Dallas is the 8th seed in the West right now, and a win in that game would have vaulted Portland to the top of the NW Division.  However, Dallas always ALWAYS gives Portland trouble.  In terms of player-to-player matchups there are few teams that put Portland at a greater disadvantage right now.  This game was no different.  The whole game was pretty even, except for the 2nd quarter when Dallas outscored Portland 30-19.  The Blazers actually had a chance in the final minute.  Down two Travis Outlaw made a great defensive play, stripping the ball from Jason Kidd.  He then dove for the loose ball and got it to Steve Blake, who say Brandon Roy streaking ahead of everyone for the tying bucket.  But Blake threw an errant pass that was intercepted by Antione Wright and that was pretty much that.  Dirk Nowitski led the Mavs with 29 points and 10 rebounds while Jason Terry added 24 off the bench in a 98-94 Dallas win.  For the Blazers Lamarcus Aldridge led the way with 23 points and 11 rebounds while Roy had 22 and Joel Przybilla added 15 rebounds.

Two nights later Portland played host to the New Jersey Nets.  The Nets controlled the tempo and the game for the first 3 quarters and held a 77-71 lead entering the 4th.  In typical Portland fashion the Blazers pulled it all together and overcame a 10+ point 2nd half deficit for the 16th time.  The major catalyst in the game was Nicolas Batum, who along with his career high 20 points played terrific defense on Vince Carter (19 points on 8-20 shooting) and hit the dagger three pointer that put Portland up 6 with less than a minute to go.  All told Portland outscored the Nets 38-23 in the 4th and won 109-100.  Roy led the the game with 31 points while Aldridge had his 4th straight double double with 19 points and 10 rebounds.  Devin Harris led New Jersey with 27 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds (seriously, this guy is severely underrated.  He's the 3rd best PG in the NBA behind Chris Paul and Deron Williams).

On Sunday Portland embarked on a five game Eastern swing, beginning in Atlanta.  I forcasted a loss here, mostly because Atlanta rocks and home and Portland sucks on the road.  Largely, that was the case.  Joe Johnson, another underrated East star, ran unchecked basically the whole game and finished with 35 points.  The whole game the Hawks outran the Blazers up and down the floor, using their defense to create scoring opportunities.  As a team Atlanta shot 51% to Portland's 46%, forcing 15 Blazer turnovers to only 5 for the home team.  It added up to a 98-80 beatdown.  Johnson's 35 led the game while Josh Smith added 19.  Roy led Portland with 29 but nobody else really contributed.

Finally on Monday Portland traveled to Memphis to play the lowely Grizzlies.  Lamarcus Aldridge came out scorching hot, hitting 7 of his first 8 shots and scoring 17 in the opening quarter to stake the Blazers to a 29-20 lead.  After that Portland never really ran away with it but was never really threatened either.  Whenever the Grizzlies would make a small run and get it within 5 or 6 Roy would take over for a short stretch and push the lead back to double digits.  It was a relatively easy and low stress game, which is nice on the second end of a back to back on the road.  In the end Portland won 103-92.  It's difficult to say who "led" the Blazers in this balanced game: Roy had 20 points and 9 assists, Aldridge finished with 22 and 8 rebounds, Joel had 13 and 13 and threw in 5 blocks for good measure, and on and on.  OJ Mayo led Memphis with 21 and Mike Conley threw in 20 for the Grizzlies.

With that last win Portland both surpassed last year's road win total and last year's overall win total while simultaneously clinching their first winning season since 2003.  Good time to be a Blazers fan.

Three Things I Liked

This version of "Three Things I Liked"will highlight three Blazers who have really stepped up their game since the All-Star break.  On of them is finally reaching the heights expected of him all season long, one is exceptionally exceeding expectations, and one who was expected to be traded may have earned himself a long-term slot on this roster.

1. Lamarcus Aldridge (19.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg since the break)

Aldridge is a historic second half of the season player.  This year appears to be no different.  Entering this season Aldridge was expected to contend for an All-Star spot and step up as the #2 option for the Blazers.  He's done half of those things.  After an terrible start to the season (15.9 ppg through his first 18 games) Aldridge became a reliable second banana to Roy.  While his 20 ppg over his past 20 games is terrific, the really wonderful addition has been his rebounding.  Typically he's about a 7.0 rpg player, so to have him consistently putting up 8 or 9 a game is a welcome change.  In one stretch he posted 4 straight double doubles, not exactly eye-popping but still better than before.

He's also becoming more comfortable close to the basket.  His 8-foot running hook has become a reliable weapon against the bigger, slower power forwards in the NBA and his pump-fake, spin move layup takes care of the more finesse post players.  There is also of course is 17-20 foot jumper that he loves and stretches the floor, but to be effective nightly he has to take it inside and he's learning that.  Taking it inside also creates a lot more rebounding opportunities, which likely is a big reason for his recent increase in rebounding.

Aldridge has improved to the point that basicall every game he takes over for a solid 10-15 minute stretch which allows Roy to play in the flow of the game rather than be the main focus.  Having two weapons that can take over the game instead of just one will be a major factor in the playoffs, where basically every team has at least one player that can hamper an opposing star.

2. Joel Przybilla (6.5 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg on 54% shooting since the break)

Where would this team be without Joel?  Basically, Joel has made Blazermaniacs say "Greg who?" Everything that Oden was expected to provide this season, Joel has provided. Solid interior defense? Check (just ask Tim Duncan).  Rebounding? Check.  High shooting percentage on putbacks and lobs? Check.  Though Oden is expected to return either today vs. Indiana or tomorrow vs. the Cavs, Joel will rightfully remain the starter.

Coming into the season Przybilla was expected to be a solid backup center, but nobody anticipated the level on intensity with which he would play.  Just two seasons removed from being a 16 minute per game scrub on a bad Blazers team, Joel has become probably not only the third most important player on the team behin Roy and Aldridge, but legitimately of late he's been the third best PLAYER overall.   Furthermore he's the enforcer on a team that often lacks fire, and he's also gone from injury prone in his earlier years to one of the tougher players in the NBA.  I don't want to jinx anything, so let's just say that he's played a lot of minutes this year.  He has played through several injuries, most notably a broken wrist which was constantly whacked intentionally by opponents.

On offense Przybilla has become reliable from point blank if nothing else, which is saying something compared to what he used to be.  On the season he's still above 60% from the field despite his recent "slump," going 22-40 in March.  On defense he's among the best at defending the post, and on the glass he is among the best at both ends of the floor.  He also fits in well with the starting unit since he doesn't look to score.  Roy and Aldridge do the bulk of the shooting (and Outlaw too later in games) while Joel cleans up the glass and plays defense.  Admittedly Oden should replace him at some point again as the starter, but that will simply mean that the Blazers will have the best backup big man in the league.

3. Travis Outlaw (14.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg in 28.7 mpg since the break)

The post-break numbers don't really do Outlaw justice.  They're only a slight increase from his numbers from earlier in the year, but the real difference is HOW he's been getting them.  For starters, he's shooting over 51% since the break.  Before the break he was at 44%.  Partially this is simply due to him hitting his jump shot, but mostly it's because he's FINALLY got it in his head to take the ball inside.  He has such tremendous leapind ability that he can get off a clean look anywhere, even in a crowded lane.  Also nice to see is that his three point shooting hasn't really dropped off at all since December.  Before this year Outlaw was below 35% for his career from deep, and this year he's been above 40% basically all season.  By adding a deep shot AND finally deciding to bring some of his game inside Outlaw has become a threat from literally everywhere.

Another handy part of Outlaw's game is that he comes off the bench and is ready to go.  A lot of games Portland bogs down a bit toward the end of the first and at the start of the second quarters.  Enter Outlaw, who, as I mentioned, can score from anywhere.  His jump shot is basically indefensible because he can jump so high and is so long that his release is above basically every defender's reach.  He's also versatile position-wise, equally capable of being either a long and lithe small forward or a small and quick power forward.

The offensive production is all well and good, but what's finally gotten Outlaw off of my "must trade" list is his focus on rebounding.  Before the break Outlaw was just a shade over 4 rpg, and since then he's at 5.  In March he's up to 5.6, even with zero against the Lakers when he was told to stick to the perimeter.  His sudden attention to rebounding makes him a multi-faceted threat.  He also hustles more than ever before.  Now if he can only add some defensive presence to his game, I'd gladly say that he's a key part of the Blazers' anticipated future championship runs rather than a key trading chip.

Three Things I Didn't Like:

1. Losing Rudy:

After the hard foul by Trevor Ariza, Rudy Fernandez was injured and out for two games.  He wasn't too missed against New Jersey, but in the Dallas game the Mavs ran a compact zone that clogged the lane.  With Rudy out there was no zone-busting three point shooter.  In a game as close as the Dallas game was, Rudy very likely could have made the difference.

But that's not the worst of it.  Not only did Ariza knock Rudy out of two games, but he also seemed to have taken some of Rudy's mojo.  Rudy was an absolute fearless player before the injury, and while he's maintained that "let 'er fly" attitude he doesn't have the same confidence about him.  He's a dismal 1-12 from the field since his return.  I'd imagine some of his struggles is due to soreness pertaining to the injury, but I'd equally wager that his reluctance to attack the basket is because he doesn't want to wind up in the hospital again.

Rudy's a key part of this team and he'll need to recover physically and psychologically pretty quickly while Portland jockey's for playoff positioning.

2.  Backup PG play:

In a word, the efforts of both Sergio Rodriguez and Jerryd Bayless have been abysmal.  The dynamic duo are a combined 6-36 for the month of March, including 0-6 from three.  On top of that they exhibit glittering playingmaking skills with a 22/18 ast/to ratio.  That's not just bad, that's epic bad.  I can can on too: Sergio hasn't hit a three pointer since February 27th, has scored 7 TOTAL points off of two (TWO!!!) field goals (on 16 attempts) this month, and has only shot four free throws since February.  Bayless, on the other hand,dominates Sergio in scoring with 17 total points in March on 4-20 shooting while posting a 6/11 ast/to ratio.  That's right, Bayless actually has a turnover-to-assist ratio.  Considering that the two of them combine for roughly 17 minutes per game now, that level of ineptitude has a seriously negative impact on the team.

Coach McMillan has recently tried to fix things by giving each guy more minutes per night every other night, but to no avail. Really the answer here is to get rid of Sergio and hope Bayless pans out, because it's obvious at this point that Sergio isn't gonna be a consistent, effective player in the NBA.  Bayless is still a rookie and has shown that with minutes he can be studly.

3.  Scheduling:

Sure, everyone plays the same number of home games, the same number of away games, etc.  But Portland really is getting the short end of the stick this stretch run.  Not only do they have three nasty back-to-backs at Denver (a 106-90 loss on March 5th), at Cleveland on Thursday (you can basically call that one a loss), and at San Antonio on April 8th (see the Cleveland game), but they have ZERO back-to-backs at home.  They also are in the midst of a five game Eastern swing and have another four gamer including games at Houston and the aforementioned San Antonio game in April.  It's simply brutal.

To their credit, Portland has been winning at roughly the same clip, but you have to expect some wear and tear due to the toughness of the games in front of them.  Additionally, both the Cleveland and the San Antonio games are nationally televised.  As Portland is all but certain to lose both (call me a pessimist, I'll call 'em as I see 'em), it doesn't exactly do wonders for their national exposure.

Also of Note:

Greg Oden's status has finally been upgraded to "questionable" for tonight's game against Indiana.  He's missed 15 games so far with a chipped patella in his left (non-microfracture) knee.  The whole mess was horribly mishandled by the trainers and management, who said Oden would be day-to-day when in fact the doctors had said it could take as long as six weeks to heal to the point that Greg could play.  Given that time table, Oden has made a speedy recovery.  However, since it was first reported he wouldn't miss any time at all, his reputation as an injury prone center only increased.

When Oden comes back he'll come off the bench, which is the right move for several reasons.  First, Joel Przybilla deserves that starting spot until Oden proves he's good enough to take it from him.  Second, Oden needs to get back in to game shape.  Third, taking Joel out of the starting lineup would do more damage to the team chemistry during this all-important stretch run than it's worth.

Once Oden gets back up to speed he'll probably see 25 minutes a night or so and be a double-double threat nightly.  Until then he's at least un upgrade over Channing Frye coming off the bench.

Token Non-Blazers Thought

I like cheese.  Also, I boldly predict that nobody will have a perfect bracket this year and that a 6th grader who never watched college basketball will do better than me.  That is all (told you I was mailing it in).

The Week Ahead

...is a great chance for Portland to make a move.  First up is tonight against Indiana.  The Pacers already lost to Portland in Portland, 107-105, earlier this month.  Now Indiana has star Danny Granger back, but he's more rusty than the tin man before Dorethy got to him.  Furthermore, Troy Murphy is now injured, and Murphy is Indiana's leading rebounder and one of it's top scorers.  As previously mentioned, Oden is a game time decision for this one.  I doubt he'll actually play, though he's love to since it's in his home state.  Still, the Blazers should have more than enough weapons to take care of business.  It would be nice if they could make it a blowout and get some early rest as this is the first of a nasty back-to-back, but Indiana should have enough fight to keep it close until the end.

The next game is in Cleveland on Thursday.  This is as sure of a loss as one can be.  Cleveland has only lost once at home all year, Portland is poor on the road, and it's the second of a back to back for the Blazers.  The schedulers clearly wanted this game to go to the Cavs.  Even when Portland had the advantage of being at home as rested the Cavs still beat them back in January.  Although Oden has a high possibility of playing, I would say Portland has little more than a puncher's chance in this one.

After a day off the Blazers will be in Wisconsin playing the Bucks.  Milwaukee has endured a disappointing season but still boasts a respectable 20-14 home record and is in the thick of the playoff race in the East (which is like being in line for an Olympic swimming berth for Afghanistan).  This has "trap game" written all over it and I really wouldn't be shocked to see the Blazers lose, but I also think they have enough maturity and determination at this point of the season to treat every game like a playoff game.  Portland should win.

The week concludes with the Blazers finally returning home to face the 76ers on Monday.  Philly has become a legitimately a good team in the East, clicking on all the right cylinders down the stretch.  They have a lot to play for, but Portland has more.  There's also the fact that one of Portland's worst losses of the season came in Philly (the game where Steve Blake got hurt) and they will be looking for retribution.  It will be a competitive game but Portland will win this one.

Playoff Watch

Portland's magic number is down to 10.  Any combination of 10 Portland wins or Phoenix losses and the Blazers are in the postseason for the first time in six years.  Portland has 15 games left in the regular season, as do the Suns.  The two play each other a week from Thursday, at which point the magic number could be down to 5 or 6 already as Phoenix will face both Utah and Denver immediately before.  Even better is that the Utah game is the night before Phoenix comes to Portland.  It's not unreasonable to think that Portland can clinch their playoff berth before the start of April.

Since it's all but certain Portland will make the playoffs, now the focus should switch to a potential division title.  It's all but a deadlock atop the Northwest division, with Denver leading Portland by a half game with Utah only another half game back.  Utah followed up a 12 game winning streak by losing three in a row before beating lowly Washington yesterday, so who knows what to expect from them.  Denver, on the other hand, has just followed a three game losing streak with a three game winning streak, so who knows what to expect from them.  Finally, Portland has won every other game since March 9th, so who knows what to expect from them.  

As I said, the Blazers have 15 game left while Denver and Utah each have 14.  Each plays the other once more this year, with Denver and Utah both up 2-1 on Portland and Utah leading Denver 2-1.  Additionally, Portland's remaing opponent's win percentage is 49.4%, Denver's is 46%,and Utah's is 51.8%.  Portland has 7 home games and 8 road games left, Denver has 7 and 7, while Utah has 6 home and 8 away.  

If I am honest with myself I see Denver winning the division with Portland finishing second and Utah third.  However, Portland plays Denver in Portland for the last game of the season, and if that game decides things then I believe the Blazers will win the division.