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For those of you who have been filling out brackets for many years now, you're well aware that the person that wins it all isn't always the one that knows the most about college basketball. Sometimes, they know the least. Dumb luck gets it done for them.

That's frustrating, right? Well, all we can do is give ourselves the best opportunity to win by playing a conservative-but-smart selection style. You may have a gut instinct about a lower seeded team, but going with your gut isn't always the optimal strategy. Bare in mind that most of the people you are competing with in your pool probably don't know much about the field of 64, and when in doubt, they'll pick the favorites. So when you reach for an upset you're putting yourself in a compromising position, unless of course you're in a pool where correct upset selections are handsomely rewarded. That changes things.

But most bracketeers aren't in pools where upset picks are at a premium. If you're doing your picks on ESPN.com, Yahoo Sports or CBS Sports, then you know it's a straight-up competition. No need to stretch for outlandish upsets.

With these general guidelines laid out, let's take a closer look at this year's field, and some more specific strategies for success.

Midwest Region

This is Louisville's region to lose. Out of the No. 1 seeds, Louisville and UConn have the easiest draws to the Final Four. Rick Pitino's Cardinals will have the most favorable Elite Eight game of any No. 1 seed, matching up with any of the following: Kansas, West Virginia, Boston College or Michigan State. UConn has to deal with Memphis; Pitt has to worry about Duke, and UNC may be concerned about Blake Griffin and Oklahoma. None of the potential Elite Eight match-ups for Louisville are as dangerous as Memphis, Duke or Oklahoma.

What does all this mean?

Louisville may not be the best team in the NCAA Tournament (though, they're definitely in the top four), but they are the team with the best opportunity to win it all. If North Carolina has a healthy Ty Lawson they're probably a little better than Louisville, but it appears that Lawson's injury is more severe than initially reported. ESPN is saying that he will certainly miss UNC's first round game, at the very least. Surely a red flag.

As a unit, Pitt may be as strong as Louisville, but the Panthers clearly face a more daunting task in the East Region. 

So take Louisville to cruise out of the Midwest Region -- it's the safe play, and the smart one.

Elsewhere in the Midwest Region, the safe upset choices are Siena over Ohio St. and Arizona over Utah. What I mean by a "safe upset choice" is that selected the underdog and losing will not hurt you because the underdog choice will certainly lose to a superior team in the round of 32. In this case, those teams are Louisville for Siena, and Wake Forest/Louisville (Sweet Sixteen) for Arizona. 

I don't like to make upset picks simply for the sake of it, but some people do. So if you're desperate for first-round upsets in the Midwest, then I guess it's Siena and Arizona. If I had to choose between the two, I'd say Arizona was the better play despite the 5-12 match-up with Utah. 

Moving on to the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, this is a region with a bunch of evenly matched teams. It may be best to go conservative and put No. 3 Kansas in the Elite Eight because they're a big-name school with a high seed, meaning the idiots in your pool will almost certainly have them meeting Louisville. You don't want to lose ground on the idiots by making hero picks like West Virginia and Boston College. Both of those teams could probably beat Kansas, but when in doubt, just stay close to the pack. We'll do our damage in the later rounds, when the point totals are significantly higher. 

If there's a high seed to fall in this region it's definitely Michigan State. There's one team you can avoid being conservative with. They can't find the consistency necessary to reach an Elite Eight, so you can take either Boston College or Kansas to beat them. 

The West Virginia-Kansas match-up scares me, but I'll ultimately play it safe. 

The verdict: Sweet 16-Louisville, Wake Forest, Kansas, Boston College. Elite 8-Louisville over Kansas. Louisville to Final 4.

West Region

It's hard to imagine someone other than UConn or Memphis taking this region. Still, having graduated from UConn recently, I know this particular group of Huskies will find a way to fail. Jim Calhoun's boys got an easy draw, but they'll find a way to screw it up. Even if they squeak by Texas A & M and Washington (which they may not even do), there's no way they're rattling off four key victories in a row, including Memphis in the Elite Eight. 

That said, I'm putting Memphis in the Final Four. I'm a little concerned about Missouri because they're an immensely talented team with good athleticism, but I'm hoping Memphis' relentless defense will be the deciding factor in their potential match-up. 

Getting back to UConn momentarily, even though I've told you not to trust the likes of Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, Stanley Robinson and all of the Huskies (with the exception of the outstanding A.J. Price), that doesn't mean you should have them losing to Texas A & M or Washington. It's too much risk for too little reward. People love UConn's basketball program throughout the country, so you know a ton of bracketeers are going to have Connecticut in the Final Four. That means the idiots in your pool, too. (Note: when I say "idiots," I simply mean the people who have no idea what they're doing when they fill out their brackets. They'll generally play the favorites). Put UConn in the Elite Eight, even if they are a little shaky.

Lot of potential first-round upsets in this region. I like Texas A & M over BYU (as you already know if you've been reading closely) and Maryland over California. Vasquez is an incredible leader for Maryland; I expect him to find a way.

Other possibilities are Northern Iowa over Purdue, and even Mississippi State over Washington. Miss St. is another team that could potentially knock off UConn, but don't bother getting freaky. 

The verdict: Sweet 16-UConn, Washington, Missouri, Memphis. Elite 8-Memphis over UConn. Memphis to Final 4.

East Region

This is unquestionably the trickiest region. As I said in an earlier post, I think Pitt is a strong team but I have no faith in them come tournament time. Levance Fields is an emotional leader but I think the physical aspect of his game is overrated. He's a little chunky, inconsistent from the outside, and detrimentally short defensively. People rave about him like he's freakin' Magic Johnson, Chris Paul or something. Easy everyone, he's nothing special.

In addition, Pitt likes to slow things down when they think they're in control of a game. Sometimes that's when they're only up by six or eight points with half of the second half remaining. 

I hate that style. I hate allowing the opposition to stick around because you want to kill a little clock and work for a "good shot," which eventually becomes a bad shot forced near the end of the 35-second shot clock. Pitt is highly suceptible to a close loss. I'm not putting them in the Final Four. 

Then who? You ask. Well, the other candidates are Duke, Villanova, and Xavier. UCLA and Texas are interesting darkhorses as well. That's a ton of competition for a Pitt team that just isn't explosive enough to survive it. 

I'm taking Duke because they can run up the score on you when they get rolling from the perimeter with Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Gerald Henderson. Their potential game against Villanova concerns me because the Wildcats are similarly structured with Scottie Reynolds, Stokes, and Fisher, but I have a good feeling about the Blue Devils -- for once -- this time around.

To me, there's only two possible first-round upsets in this region: Tennessee over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin over Florida State. I'm taking Tennessee, but sticking with Florida St. 

The verdict: Sweet 16-Pittsburgh, Xavier, Villanova, Duke. Elite 8-Duke over Pittsburgh. Duke to Final 4.

South Region

This Ty Lawson injury could change everything. If he ends up missing more than just the opening NCAA Tournament game, and possibly the entire tourney, then the Tar Heels are not nearly as dangerous as they initially looked. There's still a chance that they could come out of the South Region without Lawson, but it would be a bit of a long shot with Oklahoma, Syracuse, Gonzaga, and sneaky Clemson around. 

As of right now, I'm assuming that Lawson will return for the round of 32, which of course means UNC will win without him in the opening round. Shouldn't be a problem. If Lawson does return and is expected to play his regular amount of minutes per game, then UNC should be able to get by Syracuse and Oklahoma. If he doesn't return, it's a free-for-all. 

A few possible first-round upsets: Butler over LSU, Western Kentucky over Illinois, and Michigan over Clemson. Still, I'm sticking with the three favorites -- LSU, Illinois, and Clemson -- though Michigan is probably the best of the underdogs in this pack.

Originally, UNC was my team to beat for the whole damn thing. Now, that's an extremely risky play. I'm hoping that Lawson is tough enough to battle through his injury for an event of this magnitude, so it's UNC over Oklahoma for me.

If you don't trust Lawson to return and be effective, then go Oklahoma, Syracuse or Gonzaga. Oklahoma is probably a better team than Gonzaga, but if UNC is weakened then Gonzaga has the easier draw to the Final Four. I know, there are a lot of annoying variables in this region. 

The verdict: Sweet 16-North Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Oklahoma. Elite 8-North Carolina over Oklahoma. North Carolina to Final Four. 

In the end, I'm taking Louisville over North Carolina because it's the correct logical and mathematical move, especially considering the Lawson variable. If there's an announcement today that Lawson will miss the entire tournament, then I'm going with Duke to fall at the hands of Pitino's Cardinals. 

Good luck. I look forward to your comments and opinions.