Thunderboomer's Blog
  • 11:53 PM ET  04.05
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With the "accomplishment points"  (AP) for each team in Div-1A (FBS) completed, the strength of schedule (SoS, Round 1) can be represented.  Recall that APs can be negative in the first round.  

This was done by entering the Round 1 accomplishment points for all of each team???s opponents.  However, since teams played either 12. 13, or 14 games, the simple sum of those APs couldn't be used to represent a team's SoS.  I calculated both the average and the median accomplishment points for a teams's opponents for this purpose, but I decided to use the median because it's more resistant to outliers than the average.  Let MOAP represent the median accomplishment points for a given team's opponents (including conference championships and bowl games).

Note that since I don't have APs for non-FBS teams, I used the following for their APs:

  Non-FBS teams with a winning record:  AP = 0.00
  Non-FBS teams with a winning record:  AP = -10.00
  Non-FBS teams with a 0.500 record:  AP = -5.00

This is a measure of the strength of the opponents on a team's schedule.  Here are the Round 1 SoS results, showing the teams ranked by their MOAP scores:


Med. Opponent Accomp. Pts
Team  

 
Oklahoma = 122.07
Baylor = 112.39
Colorado = 111.12
Texas = 107.52
Syracuse = 102.53
Virginia Tech = 102.26
North Carolina = 101.97
Virginia = 101.73
Miami (FL) = 101.50
Duke = 99.35
Georgia Tech = 99.17
Arkansas = 98.47
Florida = 98.47
Clemson = 97.78
North Carolina State = 97.78
Vanderbilt = 97.78
Florida State = 97.20
Maryland = 97.20
Rutgers = 97.20
South Florida = 97.20
Washington = 96.55
Colorado State = 95.85
Pittsburgh = 94.55
Boston College = 93.12
West Virginia = 91.16
Illinois = 91.16
Purdue = 89.40
Kansas = 89.40
Nebraska = 89.05
South Carolina = 89.05
Wake Forest = 88.40
Cincinnati = 87.54
Utah State = 86.75
Marshall = 85.20
Texas Tech = 84.11
UCLA = 83.60
LSU = 82.35
Oklahoma State = 82.35
Missouri = 82.31
Connecticut = 81.08
Nevada = 80.52
Notre Dame = 80.52
Oregon State = 80.52
Michigan State = 79.24
Ohio State = 79.24
Louisville = 79.11
Indiana = 77.48
Air Force = 76.29
California = 76.29
Fresno State = 76.29
Houston = 76.29
Georgia = 75.73
Hawaii = 74.66
Idaho = 73.08
Michigan = 72.54
New Mexico = 70.96
Tulane = 69.67
Mississippi = 69.41
Southern Methodist = 68.29
Alabama = 66.53
Mississippi State = 66.53
Auburn = 65.89
Iowa = 65.85
Minnesota = 65.85
Penn State = 65.85
Wisconsin = 65.85
USC = 65.63
Washington State = 65.63
Stanford = 65.42
Navy = 65.21
San Jose State = 65.06
New Mexico State = 64.35
Kentucky = 62.37
Army = 62.31
Arizona State = 57.62
Tennessee = 57.15
UNLV = 56.98
Western Kentucky = 56.71
East Carolina = 55.92
UTEP = 55.41
Northwestern = 52.01
Texas A&M = 51.55
Temple = 51.55
San Diego State = 50.61
Oregon = 49.60
TCU = 49.60
Toledo = 48.29
Kansas State = 48.26
Iowa State = 47.27
Louisiana - Monroe = 47.17
North Texas = 47.17
Western Michigan = 46.81
Buffalo = 46.14
Eastern Michigan = 45.46
Florida Atlantic = 44.57
Southern Miss = 44.57
Central Michigan = 44.10
Middle Tennessee State = 41.28
Miami (OH) = 39.35
Ohio = 39.35
UCF = 39.24
Arizona = 37.67
Louisiana - Lafayette = 37.44
Utah = 36.00
Florida International = 35.85
Wyoming = 35.30
Boise State = 34.61
Northern Illinois = 34.61
Kent State = 30.99
Memphis = 30.31
Rice = 30.31
Troy = 30.31
UAB = 29.18
Akron = 27.42
Arkansas State = 25.36
Tulsa = 24.81
Bowling Green = 22.08
BYU = 21.38
Louisiana Tech = 20.25
Ball State = 13.31


Average    67.41
Median    66.53


Comment #1 has been removed
April 6, 2009  01:18 PM ET

UF, and the SEC in general, are not looking good here. Arkansas is the top SEC team, yikes!

April 6, 2009  07:11 PM ET

The way this is structured, there's no way you can use this system to produce good predictions of individual game outcomes. UF was hurt by their home loss (in my system) and the SEC in general doesn't have the top SoS numbers. Unless I made a mistake, it seems Arkansas played as tough a schedule as UF - they're more or less tied in this SoS ranking! But UF won more games ...

April 9, 2009  05:46 AM ET

Odd that OU came out on top after TT and OSU lost bowl games, or was the data done prior to the bowls?

 
April 9, 2009  05:26 PM ET

No ... all games, including conference championships and bowl games were involved in the calculations. I'm not sure why you see this ranking of schedules as "odd" and I don't understand what TT and OSU (OkSU?) bowl outcomes have to do with it being "odd". Can you explain?

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