SoS Estimation - Round 1, part 1 | Thunderboomer's Blog

Finally, I'm done with both parts of the first pass through the data. This blog is going to be somewhat lengthy, though, so I'm doing it in several parts.

First of all, I'm repeating my earlier, preliminary post because of some mistakes I found in completing this. I'll begin with a review the original formulation of "accomplishment points":

Consider the following definitions for team X:

From the win-loss records of teams beaten: 100*W/(W+L) = TBP, where W and L are the sums of wins and losses from all teams beaten by team X
From the win-loss records of teams lost to: W/(W+L) = TLR, where W and L are the sums of wins and losses from all teams that team X lost to
PTS1 = TBP*TLR

For team X, given its won-loss record, PTS2 = 100*w/(w+l)

A ???bad loss??? by team X is one where the opponent has a win-loss record below 0.500
A ???quality win??? by team X is one where the opponent has a win-loss record above 0.500
A ???home loss??? by team X is one where they lose at home
A ???neutral win??? by team X is one where they win at a neutral site
A ???road win??? by team X is one where they win at the opponent???s home field
A ???non-FBS team??? played by team X is any opponent that isn???t within NCAAF Division 1-A (FBS)

Accomplishment points begin with PTS3 = PTS1+PTS2

15 points are subtracted for each bad loss
5 points are added for each quality win
5 points are subtracted for each home loss
2 points are added for each win at a neutral site
5 points are added for each road win
5 points are subtracted for each non-FBS team played (win or lose)

Home wins and road losses both count for 0 additional points, either positive or negative. This system is based first and foremost on wins and losses. There are no "style" points, there's no bonus for rankings, and SoS is not accounted for at all.

Round 1 Accomp. Points
Team

Utah = 215.333
Florida = 197.822
Texas = 193.735
Oklahoma = 192.339
USC = 185.069
Alabama = 180.954
Boise State = 179.852
Texas Tech = 170.220
Cincinnati = 164.627
Georgia = 163.372
TCU = 158.827
Penn State = 157.624
Pittsburgh = 155.869
Ohio State = 152.788
Virginia Tech = 147.929
Ball State = 145.931
Oregon = 143.042
Michigan State = 139.629
Brigham Young = 139.087
Rice = 136.746
Missouri = 136.582
California = 128.566
Oregon State = 127.465
Boston College = 126.157
Oklahoma State = 124.103
Mississippi = 121.743
Florida State = 120.144
Nebraska = 120.039
Georgia Tech = 118.829
West Virginia = 114.726
Tulsa = 114.389
Iowa = 111.215
Western Michigan = 110.085
Kansas = 107.521
Air Force = 105.880
Rutgers = 104.811
Wake Forest = 104.742
Northwestern = 103.084
Miami (FL) = 103.015
Connecticut = 101.969
Fresno State = 101.563
North Carolina = 101.501
Louisiana State = 99.167
South Carolina = 97.776
North Carolina State = 97.195
Houston = 95.851
South Florida = 94.554
East Carolina = 91.162
Louisiana Tech = 89.400
Clemson = 89.047
Navy = 88.402
Nevada = 84.107
Maryland = 83.342
Troy = 82.350
Virginia = 81.081
Hawaii = 80.524
Buffalo = 80.516
Wisconsin = 79.236
Colorado State = 76.290
Central Michigan = 75.726
Arkansas = 69.405
Florida Atlantic = 67.673
Illinois = 65.854
Arizona = 65.634
Notre Dame = 65.214
Kentucky = 63.665
Vanderbilt = 62.367
Minnesota = 60.147
Colorado = 58.535
Duke = 52.015
Auburn = 51.931
Florida International = 49.764
Stanford = 49.596
UTEP = 48.172
Northern Illinois = 46.813
Arkansas State = 44.569
Temple = 44.103
Purdue = 39.968
Louisville = 37.987
Arizona State = 37.667
UNLV = 36.000
Bowling Green = 34.605
Southern Miss = 30.306
Marshall = 28.048
Akron = 27.370
Louisiana-Lafayette = 27.130
Tennessee = 23.827
Kansas State = 23.645
Middle Tennessee = 23.583
New Mexico = 21.575
UCLA = 21.190
Mississippi State = 20.246
Syracuse = 20.225
Baylor = 19.580
UCF = 17.333
Ohio = 16.794
San Jose State = 15.416
Memphis = 14.244
Utah State = 11.957
Wyoming = 11.253
Texas A&M = 6.920
Indiana = -0.749
Michigan = -3.544
Army = -14.835
Kent State = -16.461
Louisiana-Monroe = -18.862
San Diego State = -20.133
New Mexico State = -20.553
Toledo = -22.016
Idaho = -26.220
Western Kentucky = -33.941
Southern Methodist = -35.442
Washington State = -39.579
Eastern Michigan = -40.085
UAB = -40.861
North Texas = -47.609
Iowa State = -48.962
Tulane = -51.154
Miami (OH) = -64.396
Washington = -80.000