Thunderboomer's Blog
  • 12:08 AM ET  04.06
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Finally each team's MOAPs were used to find their relative MOAP scores (let's call it the RMOAP) by dividing by the average AP for all the teams in Div-1A.  This way, a team with an average schedule of opponents has an RMOAP = 1.0.

Note that teams with the most APs in a conference tend to have reduced MOAP scores because they don't get to play themselves!

However, MOAP scores aren't the only factor associated with SoS.  I also used the fraction of each team's games that were played on the road (let's call it FRG) - a high percentage of road games means a more difficult schedule.  If a team played 6 road games out of 12 games, then FRG = 0.50.  Neutral sites didn't count as road games.

This resulted in the Round 2 APs in the following way:

AP (round2) = [AP (round 1)+80]*FRG*RMOAP

Note that the APs from round 1 were normalized so that the normalized APs were all nonnegative - this was done to prevent some issues with the way the APs were revised to account for a team's schedule.  This method accounts separately for strength of a team's opponents and the fraction of its games played on the road.  It rewards teams that play a preponderance of high quality opponents, and for having more road games on its schedule.  The revised rankings that account for SoS are:


Round 2 Accomp. Points

Team 

  
Oklahoma = 171.56
Cincinnati = 154.72
Pittsburgh = 148.74
Virginia Tech = 144.34
Florida = 141.18
Texas = 130.86
Miami (FL) = 123.89
Boston College = 118.89
Texas Tech = 116.96
USC = 116.03
South Florida = 113.15
Oregon State = 111.41
Georgia Tech = 109.58
Fresno State = 107.81
Arkansas = 106.29
North Carolina = 102.86
Ohio State = 102.51
Georgia = 102.42
Colorado State = 99.94
Rutgers = 99.83
Virginia = 98.67
West Virginia = 98.63
Connecticut = 98.40
Michigan State = 96.72
North Carolina State = 96.29
Illinois = 96.06
Air Force = 94.61
Oklahoma State = 93.41
Vanderbilt = 92.84
Colorado = 92.69
Wake Forest = 90.77
Alabama = 89.60
Houston = 89.45
California = 88.43
Maryland = 88.23
Nevada = 88.16
South Carolina = 87.98
Penn State = 86.97
Florida State = 86.49
Baylor = 80.86
Nebraska = 79.20
TCU = 79.02
Duke = 78.96
Notre Dame = 78.01
Mississippi = 77.82
Kansas = 74.54
Hawaii = 74.25
Syracuse = 74.24
Oregon = 73.77
Missouri = 73.60
Clemson = 73.49
Stanford = 71.47
Utah = 70.93
Iowa = 69.98
Marshall = 66.49
LSU = 65.60
Purdue = 64.58
Navy = 61.06
Boise State = 59.99
Western Michigan = 59.37
East Carolina = 58.57
Wisconsin = 58.28
Utah State = 57.66
Temple = 53.94
Central Michigan = 53.46
Northwestern = 52.93
Auburn = 52.34
New Mexico = 52.10
UTEP = 51.30
Minnesota = 51.29
Florida Atlantic = 51.20
UCLA = 50.93
Kentucky = 49.80
Mississippi State = 48.19
Buffalo = 45.88
Louisville = 44.96
San Jose State = 44.87
Rice = 43.80
Arizona State = 40.82
UNLV = 39.81
Troy = 38.27
Florida International = 36.19
Middle Tennessee State = 36.03
Tennessee = 35.73
Louisiana - Lafayette = 33.80
Michigan = 33.39
Southern Miss = 32.78
Ohio = 32.12
Brigham Young = 31.25
Idaho = 31.05
Arizona = 30.49
Kansas State = 30.12
Tulsa = 29.86
Indiana = 29.58
Northern Illinois = 29.28
New Mexico State = 27.65
UCF = 27.59
Texas A&M = 26.98
Arkansas State = 26.62
Akron = 24.82
Army = 24.46
Louisiana Tech    22.88
Western Kentucky = 22.03
Southern Methodist = 21.98
San Diego State = 21.90
Bowling Green = 21.34
Louisiana - Monroe = 20.83
Toledo = 20.24
Wyoming = 19.40
Ball State = 18.63
Memphis = 15.87
Eastern Michigan = 15.30
Washington State = 14.74
Tulane = 14.52
Kent State = 14.23
North Texas = 12.87
Iowa State = 10.60
UAB = 9.62
Miami (OH) = 4.44
Washington = 0.00


Average    63.635
Median    58.966


Note it will be possible to re-do the SoS evaluation using the Round 2 APs.  This will be reported upon in the future.

Comment #1 has been removed
April 6, 2009  01:22 PM ET

Double uh...

April 6, 2009  07:16 PM ET

Sorry guys. These comments aren't very informative. I'd be delighted even with criticisms but "Uh..." doesn't give me much to go on.

What this ranking basically does is to look at accomplishments relative to the challenge. It doesn't necessarily predict game outcomes very well ... as should be obvious. In general, of course, teams that rank high should do well against teams ranked lower, but CFB is much more complex than I can capture with these numbers.

 
Comment #4 has been removed

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