FanNation - The Republic of Sport

"What we call the beginning is often the end. And to make an end is to make a beginning. The end is where we start from."

-TS Elliot

After an irascible Winter, Spring arrives.  New life emerges sleepily.  Snow becomes rain; the regular season becomes The Playoffs.  Young shoots find themselves under the bright light of a new sun - flowering, withering.  Old trees bloom and push still higher, renewing their meticulous stretch to a distant apex.

One stands highest.

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Cleveland vs. No. 8 Detroit

This is potentially a dangerous matchup for the Cavs.  Detroit has learned the Answer to a basic mathematical truth - subtraction of a negative is a positive. 

At the same time subtraction of a positive is a negative.  Trading Billups for a Costco sized box of Excedrin migraine might pay dividends in the future but certainly hurts today.  Their poor close to the season leads me to think that the grind of the soap opera has worn them down.  Cavs roll 4-1.

No. 2 Boston vs. No. 7 Chicago

Although Boston fans had to be happy their 1986 team's home record stood strong with the 76er's victory, at the same time I find that of the three lowest seeds Chicago is the most dangerous.

That said, anyone counting Boston out, even with a wobbly KG, is not showing proper reverence for the basketball gods.  A defending champ that leads with its defense is always dependable.  Powe, Perkins, Big Baby, and Moore will be very important cogs but they have been stepping up all year.  That still looks like a formidable frontcourt coupled with their perimeter guys.

However, they won't catch the train to the championship without a big ticket.  If KG is at full health I consider them the favorites.  They have done nothing to suggest they can't repeat.  But if they have to shut him down this team looks more uncertain.  I will err in the middle and assume he will be back but not quite 100%.

The Bulls and its two new stars, Brad Miller and John Salmons, have been given a new lease on life.  They are playing optimistically and their strong close to the regular season makes them look nothing like the team that at one point found itself at at 18-27. 

I still like Boston.  4-2 Celtics.

No. 3 Orlando vs. No. 6 Philadelphia

Despite their win Wednesday I am not very high on the 76ers at all.  Maybe it was the 6 prior losses.  The Magic swept the three prior meetings, not much to say here.  Magic 4-1.

No. 4 Atlanta vs. No. 5 Miami

Now this is a very intriguing matchup.  I have not been sold on Miami much all year, Dwayne Wade plays Atlas and they are thin at many crucial positions.  The trade for Jermaine O'Neal has helped them to climb a little above the .500 bump but not much. 

On the other hand Dwayne Wade is Dwayne Wade and his skillset is built for playoff basketball.

The Hawks have been improved again for the fourth straight season.  It is an endearing storyline because they have done it with essentially the same core and a savvy trade for Mike Bibby.  At this pace we can look forward to seeing them in the playoffs for a long while.

I predict the Hawks will make it to the second round, and once there an extremely weak bench will hurt them on nights when the starters have a bad game or two. Hawks 4-3.

Western Conference

No. 1 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 8 Utah

This season has ever the triumphant turn in a long and uncertain storyline for fans of the purple and gold.  Ever since the loss to the Spurs in the 2003 Western Conference Semifinals this team has been in doubt.  However this season everything has come together and the Lakers sure look the part of kings of the hill.  The emergence of Ariza as their own Tayshaun Prince (compare this to Radmanovic), Bynum's solid return, Gasol peaking as a Swiss-Army big man with an array of skills, as well as the luxury of Kobe on cruise control makes for a championship sunday - cherry and all.

As for the chances of first round upset, I think a beleaguered Jerry Sloan said it best Tuesday: "pretty bleak."

Lake Show 4-1. 

No. 2 Denver vs. No. 7 New Orleans

Quick CP3 tangent: how can he not be in the MVP debate every year?  Even when Steve Nash won both of his, Chris Paul's offensive stats are very comparable and we all know he is far better at defense.  This year he leads all pg in scoring, assists and steals and is second in rebounding to Jason Kidd.  In an NBA where dribble penetration is more important than ever, the game seems custom-built for this guy.  Nuff said!

Denver looks great this year, hometown hero Billups looks like he's in it to win it.  From the 8th seed to the 2nd with just one trade.

I love NOLA, but they really struggled against the better teams this year.  However I smell another good series.  4-3 Denver.

No. 3 San Antonio vs. No. 6 Dallas

What seems like an easy win is diluted by the loss of Ginobli for the postseason.  As it is this will be a very tough intrastate rivalry between two teams that have had many tough battles in the past.  If Dallas can discomfit Tim Duncan into a passer and not let Parker run all over them, I like their chances. 4-3 Mavs.

No. 4 Portland vs. No. 5 Houston

Both teams deserve to move on.  They have had great seasons despite disappointing injuries.  Although Portland looks deadly, I think that Houston matches up very well against them.  If there is any team that can be exploited inside it is the Trailblazers. 

I take Houston 4-3, Yao cements his status as a franchise player.  Brandon Roy cements his status as an all-out baller with big shot after big shot.

The rest of my picks I will just run through since I hope to do a more in-depth 2nd round playoff and want to wheedle careful observations from silly shots in the dark.

2nd Round Eastern Conference

Cavs over Hawks 4-2.

Celtics over Magic 4-3.

Already explained my reasoning here, it all hinges on KG.  HCA is nothing to be laughed at in this situation and I wish Orlando had made more of a go at it.  Plus they are a bit hobbled themselves.

2nd Round Western Conference

Lakers over Houston 4-2.  Lakers the top rebounding team this season matchup much better than Portland.

Denver over Mavs 4-3.  In the end Denver is just too deep and strong inside.

Eastern Conference Finals

What a tough pick.  Just because of the caprice of fate and a single knee.  I go Celtics 4-3 in keeping with history Lebron loses a couple more heartbreakers before his ascension.

Western Conference Finals

Lakers made a statement in their last win over Denver.  This is where Bynum's presence is felt.  Lakers 4-2.

Finals

If KG were perfectly healthy I would have to call it 50-50.  We'd have a proven Celtics team minus Kobe-stopper Posey, plus Moore and the always pleasant Stephon Marbury.  On the other hand the Lakers who were overwhelmed last year but with more experience and the surprising Shannon Brown and new bon vivant Bynum.  In that situation I would have to listen to my inner homer out and pick the Lakers but as it is with KG uncertain I am pretty confident. 

Lakers 4-2 in a reversal of last year, winning a decisive game at the Garden.