FanNation - The Republic of Sport

We baseball fans always think of Roy Halladay as a perennial Cy Young candidate. For whatever reason Halladay doesn???t really pop into our heads when we think of historically great players, but could he be headed to the Hall of Fame? Let???s be clear: if Halladay retired today, at only 134 wins and only 1,304 strikeouts, he???s not much of a candidate. But I???m curious to know if he???ll end up there and what more he has to do to become a candidate. Halladay made his debut in 1998 only pitching in two games. In 1999 he pitched about as well as you could ask from a 22-year-old, posting a 3.92 ERA and a 126 ERA+ in 18 starts and 18 relief appearances. In 2000, at age 23, Halladay struggled with a 48 ERA+ in only 19 major league games. He went back to the minors but was up for good by July of 2001. That season, in 16 starts and one relief appearance, he went 5-3 and posted a 3.16 ERA and a 146 ERA+. He hasn???t posted an ERA+ below 115 in a season since his 2001 call-up. From 2001-2008 he averaged 14 wins a season and posted a 3.19 ERA. In 2002, at 25, he broke out. He won 19 games, posted an ERA of 2.93 and ERA+ of 158 in 34 starts. The next year he won 22 games and the Cy Young. In 2004 and 2005, Halladay struggled as he battled injury (shoulder problems in ???04 and a broken leg in ???05). However, he pitched well when healthy both seasons. In 2006 he was back to his normal self and won 16 games in that season and in 2007. In 2008 he won 20 games and finished second in the Cy Young voting. At 31 (he will be 32 on May 14) Halladay is still pretty young and shows no signs of slowing down. He???s 3-0 in his first three starts of 2009 and has gone seven innings in each start. It???s impossible to predict injuries, but Halladay is a big, strong guy (6???6???, 225 lb.) who has only had one shoulder/arm injury that we know of. Also, the Jays did a good job of easing him along early in his career. We should not expect any major injuries to hinder his chances of putting together at least another five or six solid to great seasons. What about his career totals? How much further does Halladay need to go to be considered a serious HOF candidate? Voters like wins, and to a certain extent it is a valid way to evaluate a pitcher over the course of an entire career. Sure a pitcher???s team will affect his win-loss record. But as long as a pitcher doesn???t play for unusually bad franchises or unusually great franchises, a high win total usually indicates consistently good pitching for a long time. So what is a high win total these days? It???s clear that 300 is no longer the magic number (if it ever was) for the Hall. Most consider Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz as solid candidates. They have won 216, 214 and 210 games respectively. Schilling, Martinez and Smoltz all pitched for better teams than Halladay, so if Halladay can approach their win totals within the next 8-10 years, he should solidify his candidacy. Roughly 80 more wins would seem to make him a solid candidate at 214 for his career. If he stays relatively healthy and pitches until he is 40, he would just need to average less than 10 wins a season (including this season). This not only seems possible but likely considering we can easily imagine him winning 15-plus games in two or three of his remaining seasons. How about strikeouts? Schilling, Martinez and Smoltz all reached the 3,000 strikeout plateau. Halladay is still 1,700 away. Averaging a little over 190 strikeouts over the next nine seasons would get him to 3,000. This will be a little tougher than approaching 210-plus wins but not impossible, especially if Halladay can hang on to be fairly productive after 40, which seems possible. Over the past three seasons he???s averaged around 159 a year. He struck out 206 batters last year. If he averages around 135 over the next 13 seasons, he???ll get to 3,000. This means hanging on after 40 and/or approaching 200 in a few seasons. A little less likely than approaching 210-plus wins but still not far out of Halladay???s realm of possibility. Halladay has a better ERA than the likes of Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina and CC Sabathia, so unless he really struggled unexpectedly he should be fine in this area. He also has a better ERA+ than Smoltz, Schilling and Mussina, so he???s good there. It seems that Halladay needs to hang on until he???s about 42-43-years-old with mostly solid seasons (8-10 wins and 120-130 strikeouts) and two or three more pretty big seasons (15-20 wins, 180-200 strikeouts). Injuries are always a concern, but Halladay seems like the prototypical big, right-handed, power pitcher who can be effective into his 40s (think Clemens, Smoltz and Schilling). I???m no statistician, but a wild guess would be that he has at least a 40 percent chance to reach 210 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, which would probably earn him tons of support. But the odds creep up when you consider Mussina could make the Hall with 270 wins (pitching on better teams than Halladay), 2,813 strikeouts and no Cy Youngs. So I would guess it???s slightly better than 50/50 that Roy Halladay will one day have a plaque in Cooperstown. I wouldn???t bet against it.