FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Free agent pitcher Pedro Martinez has generated little interest this spring, despite several teams??? starting rotation issues. Martinez feels that he has some innings left in the tank, but his reported $5M asking price has turned off any potential suitors. The Washington Nationals, in fact, are the only team that has admitted interest, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Martinez is a future Hall of Famer who put up one of the finest stretches of any pitcher in baseball history at the end of the last decade. He is a strict National League pitcher at this point of his career, however, which limits his options. So, unless his price tag drops considerably???perhaps he will relent and agree to an incentive-laden contract???it is unlikely that he will be pitching in the majors anytime soon. Martinez is obviously not the same ace-level stud he was during his prime with the Boston Red Sox. He has averaged only 87.1, 86.2 and 87.7 MPH on his fastball from 2006-2008, respectively. A major drop-off in velocity does not necessarily preclude success, by any means, but his secondary stuff is not the same, either. He still knows how to get hitters out and can be effective when he has command over his pitches, primarily mixing in a change-up (76.6 MPH avg. velocity in ???08) and curve ball (72.2 MPH). The 37-year-old right-hander also features a cut-fastball and slider, allowing him to throw the kitchen sink at hitters when all else fails. Martinez is a major injury risk, though, and has been limited to only 25 starts since 2007. Assuming that he does sign eventually, he is probably going to end up on the disabled list at some point. Counting on him to make 20-plus starts again???especially for a team that already has injury concerns in its pitching staff, such as the Los Angeles Angels???is a major trap. If Martinez remains durable, his upside is not all that great, anyway. The veteran hurler was lit up in his final stint with the Mets, as he posted a 75 ERA+ and 5.18 FIP mark in 109.0 innings pitched. His K/9 ratio dropped to a career-low, 7.18, as most of his peripherals regressed. While 87 Ks in that many innings is not terrible, he also put more batters on base via the walk, surrendering 44 unintentional passes; his BB/9 rate of 3.68 represented a career high. He produced a personal-worst home run rate, 1.57, as well. Martinez made only five starts in ???07. While he was effective when he did pitch, he spent the majority of his time on the disabled list. In his final full campaign before that, he struggled to the tune of a 97 ERA+; granted, his 4.05 FIP indicates that he pitched better than his ERA suggests and he was still worth 2.1 value wins, according to FanGraphs. Most projection systems forecast Martinez to throw under 100.0 innings pitched, with an ERA and FIP around 4.5. Even those numbers seem to fall on the optimistic side of the fence, though, given the health concerns and the decreasing odds that he will come close to reaching that many innings now; also, although he pitched decently, his stuff was hardly off the charts in his brief pitching sample in the World Baseball Classic. If Martinez truly wishes to pitch again, he needs to lower his asking demands. By a lot. The Angels??? decision to scour the Independent Leagues for more cost-efficient help rather than tying up money into another injury-prone starter is a pretty strong indicator of the weak market for the one-time perennial All-Star. With a minimal demand overall for his services, the price will indeed come down if he is going to pitch again. Also, as far as Martinez and his agent are concerned, any deal will be pro-rated, so there is a financial benefit to getting something done sooner rather than later. Although the former Cy Young winner certainly does not need the money after earning well over $100M throughout his outstanding career, his agent should try to get his client in uniform as quickly as possible; waiting for some team to reach a point of desperation that merits spending so much could backfire. Bringing Martinez on board would represent a medium-to-low-reward signing for a team in need of pitching help, so reducing the guaranteed risk is crucial to make any negotiations worthwhile. In addition, he will need at least two weeks to get his arm into game-ready shape upon agreeing to pitch again, delaying his return date to at the earliest sometime in June; his readiness, of course, is another issue to consider. He could add some value in the right situation while pitching for an N.L. club (and could help generate some fan interest for a team like the Nationals), but, in order for that to happen, he will have to realize that it is no longer 2001 and come to terms with the market forces at play here and his actual current worth. Anything more than $2M guaranteed would provide a poor value. Tyler Hissey is the editor of Around the Majors and writes about Major League Baseball at his blog.