Ok, after a few days of sorting out the mock drafts, I am ready to present to you the final results for the 2nd Annual Fan vs. the Experts Mock Draft Challenge, and to hand out the Steve Riggs Award for Draftnick Excellence (the Riggsby). First off, though, I'd like to explain to you my new point system I have devised to determine a champion. In my last post, I stated it would be simple. Well, while it is still kind of simple, I had to tweak it a little more because of the numerous ties that occurred.
I knew that I couldn't determine a winner based solely on the # of correct picks. Besides being a little misleading, it's also kind of boring. So how would I grade the results? I wanted to give weight not only to how many correct picks were made, but also the wrong picks. But that in itself did not solve the problem of too many ties between the experts. So I had to come up with different categories of "right" and "wrong" picks.
Well here's what I came up with. I have 7 point categories (3 positive, 4 negative). The three positive ones have more weight because, well, simply put, it's a lot harder to get a pick right (or partially right - just hang with me a minute) than it is wrong. Please note that all results are based on draft slot and for the First Round only!! The positive categories are as follows:
1. Right On - Obviously these are the picks correctly predicted. Each Right On pick is worth 5 points.
2. Right Player, Wrong Team -This is for teams that trade up to a spot to take a player that the experts and I may have had them going anyway. If we got the right player in the right draft slot but for the wrong team, it is worth 3 points (think Josh Freeman or Mark Sanchez).
3. Right Position, Wrong Prospect - If any of us guessed a team would draft a particular position, but we had the wrong player at that position, it is worth 1.5 points. I included this because we have no real idea of how individual teams rate prospects of the same position. So these are "kind of right" and are awarded points for this.
The negative point categories are for predictions that did not meet any of the positive criteria. Since not one single part of these predictions were correct, I graded them based on how far they were off:
1. Picks 1-5 spots off - A player is taken 1-5 draft slots (up or down) from the predicted draft slot. .5 points are deducted for these.
2. Picks 6-10 spots off - This results in a 1 point deduction.
3. Picks 11-15 spots off - This results in a 1.5 point deduction
4. Picks 16+ off or not taken in 1st round - Results in a 2 point deduction. Even if a player was predicted to go 32nd in the first round and was taken with the 1st pick in Round 2, it would still be a 2 point deduction because that player was not taken in the first round.
I don't want to totally ruin it for you, but we do have a new champion (last year Mel Kiper took home the Riggsby). As you'll see, the Expert Fan didn't do as well as I'd hoped I would. There are a few reasons for this. First was my refusal to include Josh Freeman in the first round. I also made a last second change to where I had Malcolm Jenkins going. Had I picked those two correctly, my point total would have been 21.5, which would have been good for 4th place, and just ahead of Mel Kiper. So I am actually kind of pleased with my performance, and the fact that I did beat a few guys who actually get paid to do this is exciting. Here are your results, beginning with the last place:
16. NBCSports.com - -1
15. Pete Prisco (CBSSports) - 5.5
14. Jay Glazer (FoxSports) - 7.5
12T. Pat Kirwan (NFL.com), The Expert Fan - 13.5
11. Bucky Brooks (NFL.com) - 14
T9. Steve Wyche (NFL.com), Clark Judge (CBSSports) - 14.5
8. Charles Davis (NFL.com) - 15.5
7. Chad Reuter (CBSSports) - 16.5
6. Mike Mayock (NFL.com) - 17.5
5. Rob Rang (CBSSports) - 18
4. Mel Kiper (ESPN) - 20
3. Peter King (Sports Illustrated) - 27.5
2. Don Banks (SI.com) - 28
1. Todd McShay (ESPN) - 28.5
Congrats to our new champion!! You're Riggsby Awarrd will be arriving shortly!
For those who want to continue reading a little bit, here are few fun facts from my results:
Most picks Right On - 8 (Mike Mayock, Todd McShay, Peter King)
Most Right Position Wrong Player Picks - 8 (the Expert Fan, Charles Davis)
Most Picks 1-5 spots off - 15 (Chad Reuter, Pat Kirwan)
Most Picks 6-10 points off - 6 (Steve Wyche)
Most picks 11-15 spots off - 6 (Pete Prisco)
Most picks 16+ spots off/ Not in 1st Round - 8 (Mike Mayock)
Least Right On Picks - 4 (the Expert Fan, Charles Davis)
Least Right Position Wrong Player picks - 1 (Mike Mayock)
Least picks 1-5 spots off - 8 (Pete Prisco, Mike Mayock, Bucky Brooks, Don Banks)
Least Picks 6-10 spots off - 1 (Pat Kirwan)
Least Picks 11-15 spots off - 0 (the Expert Fan, Chad Reuter, Steve Wyche, Don Banks, Peter King)
Least Picks 16+ spots off/ Not in 1st Round - 3 (Charles Davis)