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  • 11:19 AM ET  05.03
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April has to be the fastest month on the calendar, or at least on the sports calendar. Baseball season starts. March Madness ends. The NBA playoffs start. The Masters. The NFL Draft. Boom. It???s May. And before we know it, one-sixth of the baseball season is over. May is the month where a baseball season takes shape. And with every shape, there are story lines that point the season towards its ultimate destination. As we enter May, here are the 10 things you need to watch that will determine how this season will play out. 10. Can the unlikely teams continue their success? In March, if you were asked to pick the four worst teams in baseball, many people would have picked the Nationals, Padres, Mariners and Pirates as the most likely choices. Well it appears we all hit on the Nationals, but the rest of the trifecta is currently .500 or better. And while nobody is confusing the Padres and Pirates as contenders, the Mariners are currently in first place in the AL West, and with the Angels foundering thanks to a rash of injuries, Seattle is actually in a position they could maintain. Of course their success hinges on the continuation of Erik Bedard???s health, Jarrod Washburn keeping his ERA below 4.00 and Russell Branyan continuing to slug over .600, so nothing is carved in stone. 9. A-Rod Yeah, yeah, steroids, tipping pitches, strippers, whatever. I just don???t care. It???s not why I follow baseball. But regardless of how annoying all of the A-Rod allegation-talk is and how much it covers up the real baseball discussion, his return to the Yankees will play a huge factor in the American League playoff race the rest of the season. There, I mentioned him. I???m done. Next. 8. Young Players Going Through the League a Second Time Baseball is a game of adjustments. No matter what you do or how well you do it, once the league figures it out, you have to adjust. Ryan Howard batted .313 in his 2006 MVP season. He has batted .268 and .251 in the two seasons since. That???s not bad luck. The league just figured out he can???t hit a backdoor breaking ball from a right-handed pitcher. Luckily for Howard and the Phillies, that???s a dangerous pitch to throw and the margin for error is so small that when the pitch is just a fraction off of its intended location, Howard can hit it 500 feet. Howard is an exception because of his tremendous power. It took the league 2 ?? years to figure out the hole in his swing, and even then, it???s difficult enough to exploit that he can still hit 45 home runs a year. Everyone knows how to get him out, but with Howard, it???s just really hard to do. Most players aren???t as fortunate. As we enter May, there are a number of players, both hitters and pitchers, who are about to make their second trip through the league. Some have had early success, like the Blue Jays??? Ricky Romero and Travis Snider, and the Nationals??? Jordan Zimmerman. Others have struggled a bit, like the Tigers??? Rick Porcello or the Rangers??? Elvis Andrus. But regardless of success, there is now enough video and there are enough scouting reports on these players that the league knows who they are. They know what pitches they throw or what pitches get them out. The league will adjust. Will they? 7. Cubs Offensive Offense You probably realize that the Cubs are in 5th place in the NL Central and are below .500, but are you aware that they have four players batting under .200 in their starting lineup? And that???s not even including Reed Johnson???s .216 average in 42 PA???s and Mike Fontenot???s .232 average in 80 PA???s. Geovany Soto (.108), Derrek Lee (.189), Aaron Miles (.178) and Milton Bradley (.118) are all floundering below the Mendoza Line. Sure, they will bounce back, but the trends are disturbing. Hopefully for Cubs fans, the Wrigley winds will begin blowing out sometime in May. 6. Who are the Marlins? The Florida Marlins have already had two different seasons in 2009. Their 11-1 start had experts cooing over their starting rotation and potential playoff run. Since then, the Fish have dropped seven of 10 and remembered that they are a terrible defensive team with a young pitching staff and only one truly frightening hitter, who happens to be battling an injury at the moment. As in most cases, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Josh Johnson is filthy. He???s an ace. Chris Volstad is also very good, and together they make a nice 1-2 punch. But the Marlins are also a team letting their young players find their way in the major leagues. Andrew Miller is a mess, but his potential is so great that they have to let him try to work out the kinks. The same can be said for Cameron Maybin. Will they be great? Maybin, probably. Miller, not sure, possibly. But neither will be this year. When all is said and done, the Marlins will be a similar team to the one they had last year. Talented but raw. Good, but with major holes. You don???t want your team to have to go to Dolphin Stadium for an important late season series, but I???m also not buying that the Marlins will be in first place at the time. May will be the month when we see if the Marlins??? talent is enough to overcome holes on defense and a shaky closer. 5. Will Struggling Aces Turn the Corner? Cole Hamels. Jake Peavy. C.C. Sabathia. Josh Beckett. The lowest ERA among the four of them? 4.73. Peavy???s is over 5, Hamels and Beckett are over 7. 7.00! These are World Series MVPs! Small sample sizes can skew ERA???s, so we will take these performances with a grain of salt, but there is reason to worry. Hamels was off in his first couple of starts, then got hit by a line drive and hurt his ankle in consecutive starts. He should be coming around, but clearly the World Series hangover got the best of him. Peavy is struggling, just as he did in 2006 after the WBC. What effect is it having on him? Sabathia may not be adjusting to New York as well as we assumed he would. Beckett struggled through injuries last season. Is he fully recovered? We don???t know for sure. But we???ll know the answers to these questions more at the end of May. 4. Joe Mauer???s Return Don???t sleep on this story just because the Twins play in Minnesota, in a boring stadium, in a boring division. The Twins are a team that consistently gets the most out of the talent on their roster, but thanks to their small payroll, that talent is usually spaced out more than other teams or comes in the form of younger, inexperienced players. Joe Mauer is far and away the Twins most talented player. Sure Justin Morneau has an MVP (and another 2nd place finish) to his name, but in four full seasons, Mauer has won two batting titles and a Gold Glove. At catcher. The Twins are holding on at the .500 mark without Mauer because that???s what they do. They stay competitive with what they have. But in a weak division, getting Mauer back (if he???s actually Joe Mauer when he returns) is enough to push them to the top of that division. 3. Matt Wieters/David Price This was the story during spring training. Wieters and Price have been linked for over a year now as the top prospects in all of baseball, with the only debate being whether it is more valuable to be an everyday player or a dominant starting pitcher. We thought by now we???d have a month???s worth of playing time to reflect on, but thanks to innings limits, delaying free agency, and any number of other reasons, both are still in the minors. By not being on their team???s respective Opening Day rosters, the Orioles and Rays have already delayed free agency by one year. Sometime towards the end of May, both should reach the point where arbitration will also be delayed another year. At that point, we should finally get to see what all the talk has been about. 2. Zack Greinke The best kept secret in baseball was blown out of the water this week when Greinke landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated, but it should be known that what Greinke is doing in 2009 is not a fluke, not out of the blue, frankly, not all that surprising. Remember that this was the guy people like Baseball Prospectus were touting as the next dominant pitcher after a season in 2004 when, at age 20, Greinke made 24 starts, posting a WHIP of 1.17. He has not been injured. He was not figured out by the league. He just needed some help away from the game. Even PECOTA can???t project that. But now that he???s back, we should not be surprised at what he???s doing. Will he finish the year with an ERA below 1? No. But now that the calendar has turned, we will see just how long Greinke can keep up his dominance, and if we will truly serve as witness to one of the great pitching seasons in history. It is a realistic possibility. 1. Separation Month Like moving day on Saturday in golf, May is separation month. The biggest lead between first and last in any division in baseball is 8.5 games. That???s not insurmountable, except that it???s the Nationals. The biggest lead between first and last in a division that doesn???t have a complete stink-bomb of a team in it is 6.5 games. That???s even more manageable. But by the end of May, there will be more than just one team playing for draft picks. May is the month where the separation happens. An eight-game losing streak in May can end a season. A 10-game winning streak can set a team up for the rest of the way. By the end of May, your team???s season will have taken shape. You will know exactly what kind of season it will be. You will know whether September call-ups will be reinforcements for the playoffs or a preview of next year. You will know whether or not you need to save up for postseason tickets or put the money back in the kid???s college fund. By the end of May, you???ll know.

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