FanNation - The Republic of Sport

At the beginning of the season, members of the Dugout Central staff were challenged to predict the number of wins during the regular season for each major league team. Now that the April games are in the books, it???s time to check up on how we are doing. Of course it???s still early in the season, so obviously things can change. The AL Central and AL West teams are pretty much upside down compared to our preseason predictions. And Florida has been a surprise for most of us (except Thomas Wayne!). But the rankings are starting to settle down to the point that the day-to-day changes are not too severe. In addition to the staff predictions, other ???predictions??? are also being tracked. One such set is last year???s win totals. Sky Kalkman suggested two other possibilities: last year???s Pythagorean wins, i.e., the number of wins expected using the Pythagorean won-loss formula on last year???s run totals, and the completely egalitarian ???prediction??? that each team wins 81 games. And finally, the preseason Vegas line (from thegreek.com) will also be compared to our predictions. Without further ado, the current standings: Projected Avg. Diff. Projected St. Dev. Thomas Wayne 4.54 5.71 81 wins 4.54 5.92 Kerry Whisnant 4.72 5.69 Average 4.91 6.06 2008 Pythagorean 4.91 5.93 Tyler Hissey 4.93 6.14 Randy Newsom 4.94 6.09 Sky Kalkman 4.95 6.12 Scott Jensen 5.02 6.30 The Greek 5.05 6.18 Adam White 5.19 6.25 2008 5.24 6.43 Chuck Johnson 5.32 6.51 John Quemere 5.39 6.66 Shaun Payne 5.39 6.61 The first column is the projected average win difference per team at the end of the season, using the current won-loss percentage for each team. The second column shows the projected standard deviation in the win difference. The win difference is the official total that will determine the winner, while the standard deviation method penalizes predictions that are wildly off target more heavily. Thomas is doing very well, although the simple prediction that all teams win 81 games is doing just as well. Our group average is also pretty good, so apparently ten heads are better than at least eight of the individual heads (so far). But there is a long way to go in the season. While this challenge is strictly for bragging rights, what would happen if we actually put money on these predictions? The following table, arranged in alphabetical order, shows how our predictions are currently doing versus the preseason Vegas line from thegreek.com. The data in each column assumes over/under bets are placed when our predictions differ by at least as many games as shown in the column heading. The outcome of each bet is predicted by projecting the current team win percentages to full-season win totals. 0.5+ 3.5+ 6.5+ 9.5+ Tyler Hissey 16-14 6- 6 0- 0 0- 0 Scott Jensen 16-14 8- 8 3- 1 0- 0 Chuck Johnson 15-15 10-11 6- 5 3- 2 Sky Kalkman 17-13 5- 2 0- 1 0- 0 Randy Newsom 20-10 7- 4 2- 3 1- 1 Shaun Payne 8-22 6-12 4- 1 1- 0 John Quemere 12-18 7-13 5- 1 1- 0 Thomas Wayne 17-13 12- 7 8- 3 4- 1 Kerry Whisnant 17-13 12- 6 4- 1 0- 1 Adam White 15-15 8- 6 4- 4 0- 0 Average 18-11 4- 3 1- 0 0- 0 2008 17-13 15-10 7- 9 3- 4 2008 Pythagorean 18-12 13-10 5- 3 4- 2 81 wins 21- 9 13- 6 9- 5 4- 2 The best record belongs to the across-the-board 81-win prediction, with Randy Newsom a close second. However, most people wouldn???t place a bet if their prediction was only half a game different from the line. The other columns show our projected record versus the line for teams where our predictions differed from the line by at least 3.5, 6.5 or 9.5 games. Thomas and I do very well for a 3.5+ difference from the line, but several people, including Scott Jensen, Shaun Payne, John Quemere, do well for differences of 6.5 or more. For the ???lock??? bets 9.5+ wins different from the line, Thomas is 4 for 5 at this point in the season. The next update will be given at the end of May.