Projecting Rick Porcello | Wood47's Blog

Here's the thing. Everyone has a view on Porcello. Some want to build him up to being a future Hall of Famer. Some want to knock him down because they're sick of the hype. Porcello seems to want to just blend in with his teammates and avoid the limelight. And, fortunately, his team wants to protect him. It's way too early to figure this kid out.

Porcello can be a strikeout pitcher, but he is still just a 20-year-old developing his pitches, learning on the fly and seeing what works. When he drops his curve ball on an unsuspecting batter - which he goes to about 16 percent of the time and has only started deplying a bit more often in his past five starts - he can get swings and misses all day. And that's not even his best pitch. When he needs a strikeout, he can get a strikeout. He got four strikeouts in the first two innings of his most recent start, all swings and misses.

So why is his strikeout per nine rate a low 5.57? Because he does what all sorts of pitching coaches and managers want you to do: works quickly. How many strikeouts is he supposed to get throwing 3.67 pitches per plate appearance? How many do you expect when he cruises through innings in an average of less than 15 pitches? Both figures put him among the top 10 regular starters in the AL. His teammate, Justin Verlander, may rack up the K's, but he's got the 120-130 pitch count to go with it. Porcello doesn't have the luxury of knowing he can pitch deep into a game.

You look at yesterday. After a 26-pitch first inning, putting Porcello in jeopardy of not making it through five innings before he hit his pitch count, he settled in at just above 10 pitches per inning for the next five. On a tight leash, he was able to give his team six innings without once making his manager worry about pitch counts. You can never say, "He'd have struck out 10," or something. But watching those first two innings, I think you could say if he wanted to add a few more K's to his ledger, he could have.

You can't dispute, he's more of a finesse pitcher (fast ball averages 91.3, tops out about 95) than a power pitcher like Justin Verlander (95.3 is his average fast ball), obviously. But don't write Porcello off as a guy who can't get strikeouts.

Right now, he's a kid on a short leash who found to get through six innings, he just doesn't have to. Last year in the minors, he was described by Baseball Prospectus as toying with opposing batters, rather than striking them out. This year, he may not be teasing major leaguers, but he's sure getting them out. And like everyone at age 20, he's got a lot of growing up to do left. Let's give him another season or two before we figure out what he might become.

Who knows, maybe some day, we'll be saying about some young kid, "He just might be the next Rick Porcello!"

(Data from espn.com and fangraphs.com)