The summer prior to each NFL season, I rank the players at every potentially important position, from back-up quarterbacks to offensive linemen to essential defensive players. Nothing is left out; I even rank the head coaches.
After ranking everything and everyone, I compile those rankings with a unique mathematical system. I use a similar system for my MLB Preseason Predictions, which some of you may have read earlier this year. After arriving upon the totals for each team, I then consider their strength of schedule. The combination of their mathematical ranking and strength of schedule leads me to my final conclusions.
Keep in mind that I know my system isn't perfect. People will disagree regardless of the results, and I welcome that. That said, here we go...
American Football Conference
AFC East:
1. New England Patriots (14-2)
2. New York Jets (10-6)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-9)
4. Miami Dolphins (5-11)
Notes: Believe it or not, the Patriots could actually be better than 14-2. Their schedule is not at all intimidating, and of course they'll be welcoming Tom Brady back behind center. They've added Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway as complementary pieces to an already explosive offensive unit. They have the premier head coach in football (even though I despise him), and their offensive line is fantastic.
The Jets were the biggest surprise of the mathematical system, ranking second in team defense. New head coach Rex Ryan is one of the most intelligent defensive schemers in the league, and he's inherited exceptional talent in Kris Jenkins, Darrelle Revis, Kerry Rhodes, and Shaun Ellis. He also brought Bart Scott over with him from Baltimore. This year's Jets could be like last year's Dolphins.
Speaking of the Dolphins, you can't be too surprised by a potential letdown, can you? They had a joke of a schedule last season, and everything fell into place perfectly. Any team led by Chad Pennington has a ceiling, and the ceiling is low in '09-10. Their defense, with the exception of Joey Porter, is questionable.
AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-2)
2. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
3. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
Notes: Not surprisingly, the Steelers finished first in team defense. What was surprising, was how easily they blew away the field. Casey Hampton, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, James Farrior, and Troy Polamalu are all amongst the absolute best at their respective depth chart positions. Big Ben has a pair of Super Bowl rings now, and Mike Tomlin is an energetic and impressive young head coach.
The Ravens lost both Rex Ryan and Bart Scott, but they still rank third in team defense. Their offense looks anemic on paper, as sophomore Joe Flacco will dearly miss WR1 Derrick Mason. Recently, Mason opted to retire. Luckily for Ravens' fans, their schedule is bordering on laughable. They ranked 17th in overall talent, but are projected to be over .500 at 9-7, given their schedule.
AFC South:
1. Tennessee Titans (12-4)
2. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
3. Houston Texans (7-9)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
Notes: Everyone is sleeping on Tennessee this year, labeling last season as a fluke or a fortunate series of events, but this team is solid all the way through. Jeff Fisher is one of the top head coaches, their offensive line is outstanding, and they rank fourth in team defense -- even without Albert Haynesworth. Chris Johnson is an electrifying young running back, and LenDale White plays thunder to his lightning.
About what I expected for the rest of this division; I'm surprised the Jaguars didn't try to do more to improve. Their schedule is brutal, as well.
AFC West:
1. San Diego Chargers (13-3)
2. Denver Broncos (6-10)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11)
4. Oakland Raiders (3-13)
Notes: The mathematical system never ceases to surprise me, and it certainly did so when the Chargers ranked first in overall talent. Now it wasn't mind-blowing, because we all know the Chargers have been talented for years, but first overall? Really? Well, they welcome Shawne Merriman back to a defensive unit that already featured Jamal Williams, Luis Castillo, Stephen Cooper, Shaun Phillips, Quentin Jammer, and Antonio Cromartie. Offensively, they have reliable starters and exceptional secondary options.
Josh McDaniels is creating a PR mess in Denver, but the ultimate reason for their 6-10 projection is a rough out-of-division schedule. The Chiefs and Raiders suffer the same fate in that department. The Raiders ranked 31st in overall talent. Ouch.
National Football Conference
NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
2. Washington Redskins (11-5)
3. New York Giants (10-6)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
Notes: Talk about a stacked division. All four teams with at least nine wins? It doesn't seem possible, but in fact, it most certainly is. In my personal opinion any one of these teams could win the division, though my system says the Cowboys are the most talented group of the foursome. Dallas ranks fourth in offensive skill and sixth in defensive skill, but I buried Wade Phillips in the head coach rankings. He's awful.
If the Jets are the surprise of the AFC, then the Redskins are the shocker of the NFC. Off the top of my head, I'd expect the Redskins to finish last in a division with the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys, but after a closer look at their personnel, Washington is actually very talented. They have elite players at multiple positions, including Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Albert Haynesworth, and London Fletcher. Jim Zorn showed some potential as a head coach last year, as well.
Expect most of the season series' in this division to end in a 1-1 tie.
NFC North:
1. Chicago Bears (11-5)
2. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
4. Detroit Lions (3-13)
Notes: Like the four in the NFC East, the top three in this division are quite similar, and should be ultra competitive. The Bears rank 10th in overall talent, the Packers 11th, and the Vikings 13th. It can't get much closer than that.
All three of those teams have their strengths, and well -- with the exception of Calvin Johnson -- I can't say the same for Detroit. Should be another long year for them and their fans.
NFC South:
1. Carolina Panthers (11-5)
2. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)
Notes: If the Dolphins are the letdown team of the AFC, then the same could be said of the Falcons in the NFC. Nearly everything went perfectly for them in last year's regular season, with Matt Ryan thriving as a rookie, and Michael Turner exploding as a RB1. I have faith in the two of them, and the receiving combination of Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, but I have NO faith in Atlanta's defense. Especially when their only potential superstar defensive player, defensive end John Abraham, is one of the most injury-prone athletes in the NFL. Their schedule is rough, and there's so much pressure on their offense.
The Bucs' schedule is brutal, they have a rookie head coach, and their talent pool is depleted. They should be one of football's worst this year.
NFC West:
1. Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
2. Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
3. San Francisco 49ers (5-11)
4. St. Louis Rams (2-14)
Notes: It doesn't appear that it's going to be a standout season for West Coast football, as the AFC and NFC Western divisions are the worst in their respective conferences. The 49ers are getting the hype out of this division, but they don't have the personnel to back it up. In my mathematical system, the 49ers ranked 29th in offensive skill, 23rd in defense, 25th in offensive line, and 25th overall. Certainly nothing spectacular there.
The Cardinals showed that they can play with anyone during the postseason, and they should have no problem winning the division title this year. No team has a better receiving core than Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. Fitzgerald may very well be the best player in the NFL -- at any position.
Playoffs
AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Steelers, Titans, Chargers
AFC Top Seeds: Patriots and Steelers
AFC Wild Card Teams: Colts and Jets
NFC Division Winners: Cowboys, Bears, Panthers, Cardinals
NFC Top Seeds: Cowboys and Panthers
NFC Wild Card Teams: Redskins and Giants
AFC First Round: Chargers over Jets, Titans over Colts
NFC First Round: Redskins over Cardinals, Giants over Bears
AFC Semi-Finals: Cowboys over Giants, Redskins over Panthers
NFC Semi-Finals: Steelers over Titans, Chargers over Patriots
AFC Championship: Chargers over Steelers
NFC Championship: Cowboys over Redskins
SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: San Diego Chargers over Dallas Cowboys, 27-17.
Now do I necessarily believe the way the system came out? No, not necessarily. My gut tells me that the Patriots or Steelers will win it all...but I'm sticking to my system, because it's been extremely accurate in the past. My rankings insist that the San Diego Chargers will be the best team in football this coming year, and I won't shy away from that.
The NFC is clearly anyone's game, as I can see any of nine teams reaching the Super Bowl. It just so happened that the Cowboys rated the highest in the conference, but not by a significant margin. It wouldn't shock me if anyone from the Vikings to the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl. Notice that neither the Vikings or Eagles even made the playoffs in my system. That's how tight the NFC is, talent wise.
All right, that does it for me. Bring on the complaints, haha.
(The Red Sox are the new Yankees. How did they make the transition? "JFro," aka John Frascella, is the author of "Theo-logy: How a Boy Wonder Led the Red Sox to the Promised Land." It's the first full-length book centered on Boston Red Sox's popular general manager Theo Epstein. Preview or purchase it online at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble or Borders. It's currently stocked in Barnes and Noble stores throughout the U.S. Also, check out John on Twitter.)
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Comments (27) Add A Comment
wow!! you have dallas winning the NFC? i'd love to see this as a cowboy fan, but would give huge odds on this happening. dallas needs to win a playoff game and i think they may accomplish this goal this season. but to put them in the SB.... just don't see this happening at all.
DallasFan77
Tyler, TX
Total Comments (866)
also... dallas MAY get that first playoff win this season.... then again they could go 8-8 and miss playoffs too. they have talent, but are lacking in many other areas. this is a defining season for the guys on this team.
DallasFan77
Tyler, TX
Total Comments (866)
Yea, I ranked the players at every position and even included head coach, and the Cowboys ranked 5th overall in roster talent. They were behind four AFC teams -- Chargers, Steelers, Patriots, and Titans -- in total balance, but they were first in the NFC.
Granted, it will be very tight in the NFC, particularly the East and North. The Cowboys are far from a lock, but the ability is certainly there for them to make a serious run. The NFC is stuffed with solid teams, but nothing spectacular. The AFC has the dominant teams.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
You have the NFC east in the opposite order. I am a Giants fan and only the Eagles compete with us on paper. Sadly enough that is what your predictions are based on. I dont even want to see how you could have possibly ranked these players if you feel the Cowboys have the most talent in the entire NFC. Shocking. I am actually Dumbfounded even though I shouldn't be. After all, you have the Jets going 10-6.
THEMOSTEXCITINGMANIN…
Freehold , NJ
Total Comments (7)
i like that pats are 14-2 but i dont see the losing to the bolts
Army of Adam
Total Comments (7169)
If you'd like the specifics in the Giants/Cowboys debate, I have them here:
Giants: 21st at the offensive skill positions, 11th in defense, 2nd in offensive line, 2nd best head coach.
Cowboys: 4th at the offensive skill positions, 6th in defense, 10th in offensive line, 24th best head coach.
The offensive skill positions and team defense are weighted the most in the system, followed closely by offensive line, and then lastly by head coach.
As far as talent goes, it's unreasonable to question the Cowboys in that department. Everyone knows how talented this team is -- Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten offensively; Jay Ratliff, DeMarcus Ware, Terence Newman, Ken Hamlin, and Keith Brooking defensively (among others).
The question is how will they fare when it really matters, and the answer is, "I don't know." They've collapsed in recent years, but the talent remains, and that's the only fair way for me to evaluate these teams across the board. There are many things I don't know, like how Eli Manning will perform without Plaxico Burress for an entire season. I don't have all the answers, I simply know that the Cowboys ranked higher than the Giants in my specific mathematical system.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
In my head I'd expect Tom Brady to outperform Philip Rivers if it came down to it, but my projections are showing that the Chargers are better universally. That is, they have the better all-around balance. The Patriots ranked 12th in defense, whereas the Chargers are 5th.
Also, can we be absolutely positive that Brady will be on the field when the postseason rolls around? Will he be healthy? Those concerns need to be factored into long-term projections.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
You NY Boy fans should be ashamed. Instead of supporting the giants or jets, you latched onto a team you probably never visited their town. I have been to DALLAS twice, its not very nice. The more interestinmg thing is, I did not see anyone wearing a boys outfit, amazing.. No wonder they can t sell out all the time.
As far as your system. It has to be flawed ranking the redskins higher than the giants and eagles.
Go blue!!
gmen!
Concord , NH
Total Comments (13)
As I admitted in the post, I'm aware that the system is imperfect. Logically, I don't always agree with the way it comes out. But as far as the Redskins go, they are actually extremely talented. Outside of Jason Campbell (who isn't terrible), they are strong in virtually every aspect of the game.
I had Clinton Portis No. 3 at RB1, Santana Moss No. 10 at WR1, Chris Cooley No. 6 at TE1, Albert Haynesworth No. 1 at DL1, and Laron Landry No. 8 at DB2. London Fletcher also solid at No. 11 at LB1.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
Is this the same system that last year had Atlanta at 3-13 and Miami at 5-11? LET THEM PLAY THE GAMES!
Blue Fender1
Rome , GA
Total Comments (1)
Lol no, this is a personal system. I don't know what other system you are referring to. Definitely not mine, because I didn't post my NFL Preseason Predictions last year, and I only posted my Major League Baseball predictions.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Dude! I don't know where you came up with this system, but there must have been plenty of drugs involved. You're really embarrassing yourself here. EVERYBODY thinks the NFC East is going to be a race between NY and Philly. You have them finishing 3 and 4 in the division?
dviljoen
Round Rock , TX
Total Comments (28)
Lol I appreciate the comment. The NFC East just happens to be an extremely talented division, all the way through. Yes I have the Giants and Philly three and four, but I have the Giants losing in the NFC semi-finals, and that's far from a terrible season.
I have the Eagles in last, but their projected record is 9-7, and OBVIOUSLY one game here or there can change that. I'd have to be delusional to believe that these projections are set in stone. It's predicting the future -- there's nothing reliable about that. As I said in the post, the AFC East is anyone's game in logic...as far as ranking personnel, the Cowboys and Redskins just so happened to come out on top, but ever-so-slightly.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
I think youre a little high on the NFC east and a little low on the NFC South. Statistically, the NFC South had a better record than the east. To have New Orleans and Atlanta at 7-9 i think is questionable, especially when both have made significant improvements. I think Dallas will tank this year actually. Sorry Cowboy fans. Philly should win the east. The south will likely be a 3 horse race with Carolina or New Orleans coming on top.
ejohnson_5
Total Comments (1)
Dallas = not very nice ? I've been to almost ALL the NFL cities and the weekend I spent in Dallas ranks up there witht the best
( 2007 's overhyped "battle of the undefeateds" Cowboys vs Patriots game )
In fact -I bounced @ town all weekend TRYING to egg on the locals and they were boisterous - but respectful beyond belief .
Hate the 'Boys - but love the natives there.
(especially the "dancers " in their top rate "gentlemens clubs " )
CaptainFoxboro
Total Comments (253)
Solid predictions
( though NFC East is probably way off ...Wr Roy Williams "talent " is a bad joke - I see his signing exploding all over Jerry "the joke-man " Jones 's plastic face ... a 1st and a 3rd for WHAT ?
Also - Zorns 'Skins O just don't seem to mesh . . . Portis has ALOT of where n Tear and is due to have a tire blow-out ...Sometimes it appears to be a Santana Moss deep or Bust type of attack )
CaptainFoxboro
Total Comments (253)
I have the Saints ranked 25th in team defense, and the Falcons 30th. That's where they took their biggest hits in the ranking system; however, I have little doubt about their offensive talent. Both teams should be amongst the most prolific, offensively.
Bare in mind, neither of their schedules are particularly favorable. That has to be considered.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
Roy Williams, 2006: 82 receptions, 1310 yards, and seven touchdowns. 2007: 64 receptions, 838 yards, and five touchdowns...in just 12 games. Last year was a lost season for him with the controversy in Detroit, and the subsequent the trade to Dallas.
Is he Terrell Owens? No, of course not. But Jason Witten is the premier tight end in football, so that takes some of the pressure off Williams. Patrick Crayton was productive as a No. 2 two years ago, Miles Austin showed explosiveness last year, and Felix Jones is an effective pass-catching back. They have receiving talent.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
Remember, prior to Portis' injury last season, the Redskins were lookin' good, and sittin' pretty as far as the playoffs go. Then their workhorse went down, and their offense suffered on the ground, as well as in the air, because of a lack of balance.
Portis is back and ready to go this year, and I can't ASSUME he'll go down again. It wouldn't be fair; otherwise I'd have to assume certain players will get injured on each and every team. Too much of a guessing game. So when Portis is out there and healthy, things are easier for Jason Campbell, Chris Cooley, Santana Moss and the rest of Washington's passing game.
JFro
L.I., NY
Total Comments (602)
The mere fact that the giants beat undefeated New England in the super bowl proves that statistics and numbers mean nothing at all.
Last season, the 'trendy' pick (the word trendy should be abolished from sports) was SF, but look what happened.
Again, NY over NE proves that stats like what you are using are absolutely worthless.
Oh, and the Titans having the best record because no one thought Collins could outperform VY (LOL! Vy sucks)
beebeebeebs
Lewisville , TX
Total Comments (99)
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