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The Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays are engaged in a game of chicken right now over stud right-handed starter Roy Halladay.

The Blue Jays made their initial terms public, letting it be known that a package of Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ would be enough to get a deal done. As is the case with any negotiation, regardless of industry, they set their demands high. The Phillies then came back with their counter proposal, offering a low-ball offer of Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Happ and Michael Taylor in response. Team one goes high, team two goes low. It was hardly surprising, as the Phils went below what they knew it would take, hoping that the talks would eventually come to a more reasonable middle point as far as they are concerned. Now, according to sources, the sides are at an impasse. As a result, there will be lot of noise in the next few days as each teams attempts to gain leverage through the media. However, it would be foolish to buy any of the "talks are dead" innuendo. From where I am standing, the deal will happen before Friday, as each team is simply doing its due diligence to swing the discussion in their favor.

Each club still has motivation to pull the trigger. The Blue Jays will never get more in return for their prized pitcher than they will right now. His value will simply never be higher, for many reasons. First, he represents more than just a strict rental, being under contract at an reasonably affordable rate--he is still expensive, but he is a sure thing to outearn his salary in terms of Wins Above Replacement--for 2010. The team that acquires him will receive 35 starts out of him in '10, which is huge. Compare the returns for Mark Teixeira in 2007, when the Atlanta Braves sent four elite prospects to the Texas Rangers to acquire him, and 2008, when the Los Angeles Angels only had to part ways with Casey Kotchman and non-prospect Stephen Marek. Plus, Halladay is unlikely to pitch any better than he is now, and, although he is a horse who can always be counted on to take the ball every fifth day, he could always get hurt or struggle. Line drives to the body, the only kryptonite to prevent him from doing so in the past, do happen.

The Phillies, on the other hand, do not need Halladay, as I wrote earlier today. He will greatly increase their chances of making another postseason run next year, however, helping Philadelphia capitalize on its star core in place while the window for sustained success is open for business. Thus, the Phils have absolute motivation to land the player.

Like in a civil lawsuit, the team that comes to its senses first will make this happen.

Right now, Philadelphia wants to get Halladay without having to part with both Drabek, their biggest chip, and Happ. Toronto wants both, or at least Drabek, the best prospect in the Phillies' system.

Rather than speculating more on what it will take to happen--I say Brown, Carrasco and Drabek will do the trick--here are profiles on the prospects from the Phillies who could be potentially included.

Brown: Like many of the top outfield prospects in the minors right now, from Desmond Jennings to Mike Stanton, Brown was a multiple-sport star in high school. Considered one of the premier prep wide receivers in the nation for the class of 2006 as a senior at Redan High School in Stone Mountain, Georgia, he signed a letter of intent to play football at the University of Miami.

Undeterred by his attachment to a Division I football scholarship, the Phillies took a flier on Brown in the 20th-round of the '06 draft. The club essentially bought him out of his football career, rewarding him with a well-over-slot $200,000 bonus that now looks like a steal. While many scouts were concerned that he was more of an athlete with raw baseball skills, he has made tremendous improvements in his game and is on his way to becoming a refined product.

Baseball America ranked Brown as the number one prospect in the Philadelphia organization this winter after he posted a line of .291/.382/.417 with rates of 12.6 BB% and 16.2 K% in 516 plate appearances in the South Atlantic League. Although the 21-year-old outfielder did not hit for much power (nine home runs, .126 Isolated Power (IsoP)), he made notable improvements on a plate discipline front and scouts continued to drool over his tools.

Before injuring his thumb this month, the left-handed-hitting Brown has lived up to his top prospect billing and then some at High-A Clearwater by batting .295/.377/.500 in his first 257 plate appearances. Most impressive, his IsoP is up to .205, a considerable jump from his recent marks in the lower levels, and especially noteworthy coming for a hitter in the Florida State League. He has already hit as many homers (nine) as he did in '08 as well, and his walk rate has remained healthy against more advanced pitching at 12.4%.

Clearly, Brown is more than just an athlete. He can really play, also offering plus outfield defense and speed; granted, his wheels have yet to translate into base-stealing success, as he has been thrown out eight times in 22 chances. John Sickels gave him a B- grade in his preliminary Top 20 this offseason, but he has done a lot to improve on that. Indeed, FirstInning.com recently voted him as the number 21 prospect in its Mid-Season Top 100 list. Thus, he will be a nice building block in the future for the Blue Jays or Phillies, profiling as an elite offensive performer and solid defensive outfielder. He has a good build, excellent tools and a polished plate approach and growing power. There is a lot to like with him, of course, and he could be a star if the power comes to fruition.

Carrasco: Sickels ranked Carrasco as the top prospect in the system last winter, but there are mixed feelings about his upside in some circles. The 22-year-old right-hander works off of a low-90s fastball, which is fairly straight with only average movement, and change-up combo; indeed, he has an excellent change. He also mixes in a slider, a pitch that has come along way but can still be inconsistent for him at times.

Performance-wise, Carrasco has pitched better at Triple-A Lehigh Valley than his 6-9 record and 5.18 ERA suggest. He has put up rates of 8.79 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and 1.10 HR/9, translating to a 4.01 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). While he has not exactly lit up the circuit, he is still holding his own for a 22-year-old pitching against much older hitters. His peripherals are also headed in the right direction when compared to his Double-A struggles in '07 and '08. While he did pitch well in a small sample at Triple-A at the end of last summer, he really left a lot to be desired with his performance at Reading.

2007: 6.27 K/9, 5.89 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 5.65 FIP in 70.1 innings at Reading
2008: 8.56 K/9, 3.53 BB/9, 2.42 HR/9, 4.11 FIP in 114.2 innings at Reading
2009: 8.79 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 2.95 HR/9, 4.01 FIP in 114 innings at Lehigh-Valley

Carrasco can look brilliant in one start, and then get lit up in another, frustrating scouts. He has decent command of two above-average pitches and has generated solid ground ball rates. He profiles as a number two major league starter at best--assuming he can continue to improve his control and develop his slider--but will likely end up as a number four.

Donald: Donald put together an impressive performance in the Eastern League in '08. He batted .307/.391/.497 with an 11.5 BB%, 14 homers and a .402 Weighted On-Base Average (WoBA), outstanding production for a shortstop. However, he is not talented enough defensively to remain at the position, lacking the range to stick there long term. Despite a solid plate approach, his bat does not play nearly as well at third base, a logical landing place, given his lack of power; he has never put up a .200 IsoP during his minor league career.

More concerning, Donald's performance has regressed a great deal at Triple-A so far this year. He has put up a weak line of .230/.293/.324 with a .617 OPS and .287 wOBA at Lehigh-Valley. His walk rate has fallen to 6.4% and he has struck out in 25.5% of his plate appearances. The bat is his meal ticket, and that kind of output (granted, the sample is small) just will not cut it. He looks to be a utility player, with limited defensive value up the middle, and not much more. The hype with him has been misguided.

Drabek: The son of former Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star starting pitcher Doug, Drabek was selected with the 18th overall pick in the '06 draft out of the Woodlands High School in Texas. His professional career did not get off to the best start, as he battled injuries and underwent Tommy John surgery in July of 2007. He has really impressed since returning to the mound, though, cleaning up his mechanics and routinely flashing a plus fastball and filthy curve ball.

Drabek, 20, began the spring in the Florida State League, going 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.82 FIP and rates of 10.80 K/9, 2.77 BB/9. He did not allow a home run, either, overmatching FSL hitters. Although he has not been quite as dominant after earning a promotion to Reading, he has more than held his own. In eight starts there, he is 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 3.33 FIP. He is not missing as many bats--his K/9 rate is down to 6.53--but he has put together a few outstanding outings. He had an excellent showing in the Futures Game as well, displaying two plus pitches and fine command.

 

While there are some concerns about his maturity, Drabek profiles as an ace who has major league quality stuff right now. For a kid that cannot even drink legally yet, that is quite impressive. FirstInning recently ranked him as the 28th overall prospect. Thus, he would definitely be the big prize on the Blue Jays' end, given his upside and youth.

Happ: I recently wrote about Happ's fluky start in a Fantasy column:

Philadelphia Phillies starter J.A. Happ had an excellent first half from a Fantasy perspective. Happ, long considered one of the Phillies' top pitching prospects, went a perfect 6-0 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 87.0 innings pitched. The 26-year-old southpaw began the spring in the bullpen after losing the Phils' fifth starter battle in spring training. With the ineffectiveness of Chan Ho Park and injury to Brett Myers, though, he was thrust into, and proved to be a savior for, a starting rotation that ranks near the bottom of the National League in most statistical pitching categories.

Banking on Happ to replicate that Fantasy success after the All-Star break, however, seems like a trap. Although the ERA and wins look sexy, those totals are incredibly misleading and were aided by an unsustainable .242 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 85.9% strand rate (LOB%). As well, he posted middling rates of 6.31 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and 1.91 K/BB and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP, essentially the best measure for predicting future ERA) of 4.51 is 1.61 points higher than his ERA.

Stuff-wise, Happ has gone to his fastball 74.1 percent of the time so far in 2009, averaging 89.7 MPH on the gun. He also mixes in a cutter, curve ball and change-up, but his arsenal is nothing too special overall.

As a fly ball pitcher (46.3% career rate), Happ can suppress his BABIP more so than a ground ball specialist; fly balls are easier to convert into outs consistently. However, his total will certainly regress in the second half, as will his LOB%. The ZiPS projection system projects him to go 3-3 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the second half, which seems reasonable.

The 25-year-old Happ has value, certainly, but I am not a big believer that his stuff will translate to the American League East. Toronto is insisting that he be included as well as Drabek, but they should drop that request. He is not as good as his inflated value, which will never be higher thanks to the unsustainable BABIP and strand rate, and projects as a number four, with room to emerge as a number three. At 26, he is not exactly young, either. Ricciardi should see if can land a package built around his original request of Drabek and Taylor, but replace Happ for one of the other lesser guys.

Taylor: Taylor does not have the same defensive upside as Brown, who is the better prospect. He can certainly hit, though. A 6-6, 250-pound beast, he tore up the Eastern League before a recent promotion this month, batting .333/.408/.569 with 14 home runs, a .236 IsoP, .977 OPS, and .437 WoBA. He also produced rates of 9.9 BB% and 16.0 K% while stealing 18 bases in 22 chances.

Taylor emerged as an elite prospect with his breakout in '08, posting a line of .328/.380/.560 with a .411 wOBA. A fifth-round pick out of Stanford a year earlier, his erratic college and early pro performances left a lot to be desired. He showed potential, and scouts loved his tools, but there was concern that he would even harness those into production and results. As well, his swing needed a lot of work. Clearly, given the recent returns, he has done exactly that, making constant adjustments to improve as a hitter. At 24, the right-handed masher is getting up there in prospect years, but he is a legit outfield prospect with a high upside. FirstInning ranked him at 27, which seems about right. He is a stud offensive performer whose one of the best outfield prospects in the game, behind Brown, Jason Heyward, Jennings and Stanton because they offer more defensive value.

Here is how I rank the players linked to a Halladay trade (this is not a Phils' top prospect list):

1. Drabek
2. Brown
3. Taylor
4. Carrasco
5. Happ
6. Donald

And that only includes the players mentioned in the recent proposals. Any GM would ask for something more than Donald even as a complimentary piece to the package, because his star has really dimmed.

Can't wait to see how this plays out.

 

Tyler Hissey is the editor of Around the Majors and host of Minor League Notebook Weekly, FirstInning.com's online radio show. Tyler was a recent guest of Sid Rosenberg's baseball show on OpenSports.com. To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.