Serie A is set to begin a year in transition this weekend. In fact, this may be the last year for the Italian Serie A, as the league is set to break away from the lower leagues and reformat the competition into something more resembling the structure for Barclay's Premier League. A rebranding, complete with a new name, is almost certain to happen.
On the pitch, there will be transition as well. Inter is transitioning away from their reliance on Zlatan Ibrahimovic, having sold him to Barcelona over the summer. Juventus and Milan are both transitioning to new coaches with new systems. Roma is trying to put together another run at the Champions League after a disastrous performance last season.
More importantly, many teams are placing greater and greater focus on their youth systems and giving young players a shot. Giovinco should get regular playing time at Juventus. Balotelli and Santon will regularly see the field for Inter. Pato is still the Duck. Roberto Acquafresca, Fabio Santocroce, and a host of younger players should continue to impress for lower tier teams.
Finally, we may see some real competition for the Scudetto this year. Inter has walked away with the last four Scudettos. This year however, they will face serious competition from a Juventus squad finally fully re-integrated into the top flight, a healthy Milan squad, and a host of other squads that have built themselves solidly and are hungry to pull off an upset.
A big question remains how the Italian teams will fare in European competition. Roma is off to a good start in the Europa League having won their first two qualifiers. Fiorentina put in a good effort securing a 2-2 draw in Lisbon in Champions League qualifiers. But it will take more than solid showings in qualifiers to convince skeptics of the league. The continental opinion of the league will rest on the shoulders of Inter, Juventus, Milan, and Fiorentina. Another year where no Italian squads advance to the quarterfinals of the Champions League is not acceptable. Yet all four squads have significant flaws. They have the talent, but whether they can put it together against top flight competition will have to be seen. At any rate, Lazio, Roma, and Genoa are all high quality teams that should be driven to succeed in the Europa League rather than play nothing but reserves and youth team players.
Predicitions:
Scudetto - Juventus. They have the strikers (Amauri, Del Piero, Iaquinta), the midfielders (Giovinco, Diego, Melo, Marchisio, and others), and the goalkeeper (Buffon). Their season will rest on the shoulders of their defense. Chiellini and Legrottaglie have the skills, but to the extent they need to rely on Fabio Cannavaro, they are screwed.
Champions League - Inter, Fiorentina, Genoa. Inter will need to figure out a system that reliably produces goals other than get the ball to Ibra and let him score a miraculous goal. The team really lacked creativity in attack last year, and while their offseason acquisitions are solid, they don't help in this area. It will give Juventus the room they need to take the title, but just barely. I see Fiorentina, Genoa, and Milan fighting it out for the third and fourth spot, and Milan failing due to an overreliance on old stars (thank you Captain Obvious). Fiorentina and Genoa have both bounced back from years in the lower divisions to build strong teams that compete smartly. They don't break the bank on transfers, they live within their means, and they succeed by finding young talent and bargain basement deals. Both should continue to do well.
Europa League - Milan, Roma. Both teams are in visible decline right now and in poor financial situations. Both have some young talented players but rely on aging stars past their prime (Totti, Pirlo, Ronaldinho). Both have serious question marks at goalkeeper and have trouble keeping defenders healthy. Over a long grind, fatigue will cause these teams to lose enough points to keep them out of the Champions League.
Coppa Italia - Palermo. Palermo has quitely put together a good team with a good coach. The volatility of their owner and the insanity of their own fans may keep them from seriously competing with some of the other squads mentioned on a season long basis, but they can string together enough wins against good competition to win some unexpected hardware this season. I'm betting that Zamparini will put enough pressure on Zenga to bring a trophy to the city, even if it is the secon-rate Coppa Italia.
Other teams to watch - Napoli, Udinese, Sampdoria. Sampdoria is worth watching simply for the pairing of Pazzini and Cassano. Udinese always plays beautiful attacking football, even if they can never defend and are extremely inconsistent. It makes their games fun to watch and they have some real solid talent, particularly captain Antonio Di Natale, Alex Sanchez, Gaetano D'Agostino and Simone Pepe. Napoli have made some interesting moves in the transfer market, especially picking up Quagliarella to pair with Lavezzi in attack. If they can put the pieces together, they can challenge for a spot in Europe.
Bonus Prediction - Roma wins the Europa League.
Young Player to Watch: Stefan Jovetic. He won't start all that often, but the 19 year old is an extremly dangerous player off the bench for Fiorentina. He's got sublime dribbling and passing skillsand a dangerous shot. If Fiorentina can find a way to work him and Mutu onto the pitch together in support of Gilardino, the team can challenge for the championship
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Comments (15) Add A Comment
Team in Decline!!!!!... Isnt that what they said before and during the 2006-2007 CL campaign, or even after a 2-2 tie at home to munchen,
Forza Milan
ramble_on_
Philadelphia , PA
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Look at their line-up. Who in goal? Zambrotta and Jankulovski at the fullback positions, Nesta and Kaladze at the centerback positions, Gattuso, Pirlo, and Ambrosini in midfield, (stop me when I reach someone under 30) and Ronaldinho, Pato, and Huntelaar up top. That team is old. They're going to have a painful transition as they seek to get younger.
j11forbes: Go Jo-Jo…
Denver , CO
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Great piece. I'm looking forward to see more of Alexis Sanchez at Udinese. He's going to get better and better. Inter needs a playmaker that can play up high. Milan needs its young players to really take advantage of the little playing time they get.
Juve winning the Scudetto? Maybe. If Sissoko and Melo dictate that midfield to allow freedom for Diego and Del Piero and Giovinco, Juve could be a fun team to watch.
I believe that many of the top Serie A teams have several holes in their rosters. The winter transfer period will make a huge impact on the rest of the campaign.
Big Chaco
Los Angeles , CA
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True, but I'd say the same of most of the Big Four in the EPL at this point.
This early in the season, everyone has at least some theoretical weaknesses.
j11forbes: Go Jo-Jo…
Denver , CO
Total Comments (1372)
Good blog. I could see Juve winning the Scudetto but I think Mourinho and Inter claims it yet again.
J. HOVA: BROOKLYN
Brooklyn, NY
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Obviously, if Inter get Sneijder, my prediction probably changes. I'm concerned about Inter's ability to create offense against packed defenses at this point, though.
j11forbes: Go Jo-Jo…
Denver , CO
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Good point. Inter doesn't really have that midfield playmaker right now. As I can attest to it's hard to make things happen with no sort of catalyst in midfield (I'm talking about United by the way and I know it's been 2 games but jeez...).
J. HOVA: BROOKLYN
Brooklyn, NY
Total Comments (18072)
Great piece. Don't forget Juve have a super sub in David Trezeguet. He was the second top scorer in Serie A just a few seasons ago. Granted, he's certainly not the same player and Juve don't particularly need his services anymore, but I wouldn't be suprised if he played a Solskjaer esque role for Juve. Of course I'm hoping Michael Owen is that man for us.
I do believe Milan will clinch a Champions League place. They maybe old, but I believe their experience will help them get past the weaker teams easier and Pato will break out and become the superstar we know he can be. They should be better than Genoa, who have lost both Milito and Thiago Motta and have signed an old hernan crespo and an unproven rodrigo palacio (in europe). However, Alberto Zapater may turn out to be a pleasant surprise.
Fiorentina should make the CL however while the torment for Roma continues.
jeevs BS
Schenectady , NY
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People said the same thing about Milito last year as they're saying about Crespo last year. No one wanted Thiago Motta. If you're a club like Fiorentina or Genoa, you have to have the confidence to make moves like that and the coaches in place to make them work. Who wanted Mutu or Gilardino when Fiorentina signed them? Look at how much they paid for Luca Toni. For 10 million euros, they got 50 goals over three seasons.
If you want to compete with the big boys, you have to find the right deals. I think Genoa's done that with their replacements for Milito and Motta. They played a great game against Roma this weekend.
j11forbes: Go Jo-Jo…
Denver , CO
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Still i think Crespo is no where close to what he used to be. Milito was under 30 and grabbing many goals for zaragoza when he signed for genoa. Crespo barely played for Inter and is 34. Palacio is a wildcard, we'll see how he does. Gilardino was still a good striker when fio bought him, something crespo isn't. I'm not sure genoa are good enough to top milan this year, but will be in the europa league.
jeevs BS
Schenectady , NY
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So Forbes, what do you think of Palacios in Genoa? The Boca boy replacing Milito?
Big Chaco
Los Angeles , CA
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Finally in Europe, I've been waiting for someone to snap up Palacios
jeevs BS
Schenectady , NY
Total Comments (4139)
Palacio I mean, not Wilson Palacios lol
jeevs BS
Schenectady , NY
Total Comments (4139)
I thought he looked really good as a second half sub against Roma. He'll be starting for them soon enough, but man, I have questions about their defense right now after that game. Either Roma's much better than I expected them to be offensively, or Genoa's a lot worse defensively. Time will tell.
j11forbes: Go Jo-Jo…
Denver , CO
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Keeper2
La Fayette , GA
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