Last week, 5-3, .625% All eleven Big Ten teams are playing in week nine.
Wrap up portion in Italics. Last week 5-4, for the year 10-7, .588%
Iowa Hawkeyes (8-0) at home OVER Indiana Hoosiers (4-4) The Eye's are on the prize and an improved Hoosier team shouldn't come close to ruining the party.
Until the fourth quarter, the Hoosiers were in control. Some very questionable calls went the way of the Hawkeyes. 42-24 in favor of Iowa.
Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2) at home OVER New Mexico State Aggies (3-5) This is one of those games that can be penciled in as an expected win when it's scheduled. It should be an easy win and hopefully the Buckeyes stay focused and disciplined.
45-0 Buckeyes.
Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) at home OVER Purdue Boilermakers (3-5) Wisky has a locomotive of a running back in John Clay, averaging over 100 yards per game. A big, strong, bruising fast draught horse type of runner, he's due for a break out game. A big game from Clay and no team is safe. Purdue's defense, giving up an average of 360 yards per game has shown steady improvement giving up 493 and 454 yards in early games against Toledo and N. Ill., down to under 300 yards against tOSU and Minnesota.
Clay didn't have a huge game but it was plenty big enough and Purdue had no answers, racking up only 146 yards on offense, a mere 23 more than Clay alone had. 37-0 Wisky.
Michigan Wolverines (5-3) on the road OVER Illinois Fighting Illini (1-6) Both teams coming off decisive losses, it will be interesting to see if the Illini have anything left in the tank. The Illini could potentially still be a dangerous team with Juice Williams at QB and they may very well likely sting a few of their remaining opponents as they were projected to do all season long. Wolverines will be the hungrier team.
This game highlights just how far the Wolverines still have to go. They were in control early only to lose big. The Illini are capable of winning their four remaining games, a win like this changes the whole mood and they do have the talent. 38-13 Illinois.
Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions (7-1) on the road OVER Northwestern Wildcats (5-3) Penn St. hit their stride just in time because they host tOSU next week. Northwestern will be pummeled and stand a good chance of being shut out at home.
Early on it looked like Penn State might be in trouble, Northwestern kicking a field goal at the end of the first half gave them a 13-10 lead at the break. In the second half Northwestern couldn't keep pace (Evan Royster) as Penn State ran (Evan Royster) away with it. 34-13 Penn St.
Michigan State Spartans (4-4) on the road OVER Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-4) Don't be fooled by the identical win/loss records of these teams. Sparty has had some hard luck losses while the Gophers have been beaten soundly in three of their four losses.
The Spartans D was lit up after being stingy all month long. 42-34 Minnesota.
And the NB3...
Florida Gators (7-0) in Jacksonville OVER Georgia Bulldogs (4-3) UGA coming off of a bye week might be catching the Gators at just the right time and right place. Florida has shown some vulnerability, especially the offensive line and Tebow has looked downright human these past few weeks. The Florida defense will be the deciding factor in this game, making life pure misery for QB Joe Cox.
UGA actually had the edge in passing yardage 165-164 but add four inererceptions into the mix and you have a 41-17 rout by the Gators.
West Virginia Mountaineers (6-1) on the road OVER South Florida Bulls (5-2) Many expected a drop in WV's offensive numbers upon the graduation of Pat White but his replacement, Jarret Brown is doing great. A win Friday night by the Mountaineers will keep them unbeaten in conference play along with Pitt and Cincinnati. All three of these Big East leaders have yet to play each other, making for one of the more exciting conferences to watch play out.
Seemed like WV was playing catch up all night. 30-19 USF.
Central Michigan Chippewas (7-1) on the road OVER Boston College Eagles (5-3) A big game by the Chip's QB Dan LeFevour is a must if they hope to pull the upset. LeFevour is also the Chip's leading rusher and is capable of taking a game over. (Poor man's Tim Tebow?) BC's defense has been porous and inconsistent at times and will be put to the test. This is the third meeting between these teams with BC victorious in the first two. On that note, since this is an upset pick, here's the superstitious third time is a charm nonsense, Chips win close in a high scoring affair.
Must refrain from trying to pick upsets. 31-10 BC.
As always, thanks for reading and look forward to your comments.
Kayla Oberg
Maria Kirilenko
Heisman Moments: Closest Finishes
Back in Time: November 24
Comments (22) Add A Comment
They all seem to be pretty clear choices, but I'm calling for an Indiana upset!
tHogg
Total Comments (2103)
All your gonna get outta that call is a dial tone, tHogg!
Good work, norka, I have no beefs with any of these picks, except maybe that last one. But since I have not seen much of either team, who am I to argue?
GatorRobster
Houston, TX
Total Comments (3621)
No Okie State - Texas? Bonus pick in the comments! I won't hold you to it.
I think I like Purdue in a wild one.
Good blog, Norka! Thanks.
PSUinHolidaySpirit
Total Comments (10961)
tHogg, have you been out in the garage again?
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
Total Comments (4107)
I'm hearing ya GR. Im thinking 38-34, take your pick.
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
Total Comments (4107)
I left the Texas/OK St. and the USC/Ore. games for Bru to use in his NB3. I guess Bru was too busy to get his posted last night.
I'm taking Texas over OK St. and the PAC game...
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
Total Comments (4107)
I'll disagree on BC/Central Michigan. BC in a close one.
I'm not calling the upset, but I think the potential upset special here is Minnesota over Mich St. Minnesota returning home after two weeks on the road against the powers of the conference and Mich St. coming off a heartbreaking last second loss to Iowa. I think it will be a tight one.
josephplumber
Tampa , FL
Total Comments (1387)
Sir Norka, excellent analysis as always. I agree with all your Big10 picks. At first I was ready to go with Minnesota, but your analysis is spot on. Sparty is better than their record, and the Gophers...are not.
I love over-achieving underdogs (and Polly Purebred) and would like nothing more than to see the MAC claim another BCS scalp this season, but I fear this will not be the game: the underdog Chippewas will fall short. While Sagarin has them quite evenly matched (BC is ranked better, 31 to 38, in the predictor, but worse in the ELO Chess), I think the Chips will suffer for not having faced as stiff competition to date. This game will be 1/2 step faster than what they have seen in previous games, and they won't be able to adapt until it is too late.
tUBa Ninja
West Buffalo, CA
Total Comments (2204)
Well, this week should help your record.
It wouldn't surprise me if every game except MAC-ACC is decided by 14 points or more.
Nice work. I agree across the board.
So in the other B10 + NB3 + 2
USC or Oregon?
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
Total Comments (6753)
1. Upset picks!
2. Could be JP... the one that has me thinking twice is WV at USF. Not to take anything away from the 6-1 Mountaineers, but their biggest win is over in conf. rival UCONN.
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
Total Comments (4107)
Good point UB.
One thing I've noticed about Central Michigan is; they have been beating some of their in conf. foes in similar fashion as what might be expected from a mid to top tier team from the Major Six (conferences).
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
Total Comments (4107)
I left this game for Bru to pick for a reason...
Can you imagine if The Ducks win this game and run the table and get a sure BCS bid, (here is where it gets messy) and both TCU and Boise St. go undefeated, TCU gets the BCS bid over BSU because of SOS, holy cow, the State of Idaho may try to secede from the Union.
If this happens I suggest to those affected that they take it over the heads of our domestic law makers and instead catch a fast train to the Hague and present the World Court with this injustice.
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
Total Comments (4107)
I don't see Bruce's Week 9 blog up yet, so I'll weigh in on the USC/Oregon game here:
Favoring the Ducks:
1) This is not the USC juggernaut of past years. Their current poll ranking has a significant helping of human love based on reputation and expected TV drawing power. Oregon gets no such love and has earned their current ranking on the field.
2) The last time these teams met in 2007, Oregon won and it was not an upset. There are guys on this team who know that USC is not invincible.
3) Autzen is loud. Swamp loud. Death Valley loud. The front row of seats is within spitting distance of the bench; it is hard for coaches to talk to players on the sidelines, let alone relay instructions into the huddle. Combine this with USC's common habit of picking up roughing penalties and the crowd will be spewing venom all night.
4) Oregon's defense is very good. In the loss to Boise, they held Kellen Moore to 197 yards of passing, well below BSU's season average of 243, despite being on the field 45 minutes of the game.
5) USC's pass defense is average, to be charitable. I've lost track of how many times I've seen blown coverage, missed tackles and general disarray in the secondary. Make no mistake, they were lucky the clock saved them in South Bend. By the 4th quarter, ND had figured out USC's defensive weaknesses and they were moving the ball at will. Same with Oregon State.
Favoring USC
1) Historically, USC wins big games far more often than they lose them. If either team is going to be pressing and uptight on Saturday, it ain't going to be the guys from LA.
2) While USC's weak spot on defense is pass defense, Oregon's QB (Mazolli) is not a pro caliber QB, and so USC's defensive weakness is not as likely to be exposed in this game as in recent ones.
3) USC's run defense is very good. They held Cal's Jahvid Best to 50 yards and should match up well against Oregon's strong running game.
4) Carroll has game film of how to shut down Oregon's offense, courtesy of BSU.
5) USC has already notched significant wins on the road; Autzen is just another stadium with crazy fans.
In the one game with common opponent (Cal), I don't see any obvious difference in score, statistics, etc. Cal is pretty one-dimensional running team, and both USC and Oregon showed they can dominate an opponent that lacks a balanced offense. (hello Bama :)
I picked Oregon on the week 9 thread, and I will stick with them here. But Oregon needs a solid game from their QB (Mazzoli) and the O-line needs to give him time to throw.
tUBa Ninja
West Buffalo, CA
Total Comments (2204)
Excellent as usual, Norka! I have to agree with all that you have picked here. And like you, I like the Chippewas in the upset.
And tho it is late, I did get the SEC &NB3 finally posted. Crazy/busy week at work and the Wadester picked up some kind of bug Thursday night and has been praying to the porcelain god.
BruceS1G
Pelham , AL
Total Comments (5499)
Yeah, right. Show me a PAC 10 team with a D even close to Bama's. In fact, I'd put the Bama D up against ANY defense in the nation.
Can't "dominate" anyone if you can't score ;)
Sorry, had to do the defensive homer thing there.
BruceS1G
Pelham , AL
Total Comments (5499)
Not sure I completely agree. UCLA (3-4) shut down Tennessee on the road at least as well as Bama and UF did at home. UCLA held Crompton to under 100 yards and got three picks; Bama gave up 265 yards and a TD. In rushing, it was only 115 to 76 in Bama's favor.
Similarly, Arizona State (4-3) played UGa to within a late FG on the road; this is the same UGa that LSU is pointing to as their signature win for the season so far.
And finally, the UDub (3-5) is the team that has had the most success against LSU's defense this season (480 total yards)
Bama is a solid team and the SEC plays excellent football, but the gap between other teams and conferences is not as great as commonly assumed.
tUBa Ninja
West Buffalo, CA
Total Comments (2204)
Stupid Michigan.
HUGE win for Minnesota.
This may have moved them up several slots in the Big 10.
The bad news is that they will now be big underdogs in their bowl.
Tough break for a WVU team looking to forget the days of RR.
Really bad break for the MAC - Central Michigan got pummeled. Can Temple really carry the MAC conference flag?
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
Total Comments (6753)
NB3 + 1 - I now refuse to pick ACC games.
Oklahoma - Nebraska
OU is clinging to their top 20 rank. A 4th loss and they may not find the polls for the rest of the year. Nebraska has gained control of their own destiny to a north title, a conference title, and a BCS invite.
Oregon-Stanford
USC was just the 1st step for an Oregon team with a tough schedule ahead that ends at Arizona and home against their in state rivals, but begins with Stanford.
Idaho-Fresno State
The winner moves into 2nd in the WAC, a win by surprise Idaho has them next playing their border state rival - the Boise, South Dakota Buffs - for the conference title.
Army-Air Force
So what if they are both lousy - who wouldn't pause the channel changer for 5 minutes to watch 2 service academies face off?
Prove It
Frellin Cold In, AK
Total Comments (6753)
Week 10 NB3 proposals:
Kansas (5-2) @ Kstate (5-3) winner takes the lead in big12 north
Oregon @ Stanford. Agree with PI that this is a classic trap game in the making.
OU - Nebraska
If SEC games are under consideration
LSU @ Bama
Jeez, the rest of the SEC slate this week is beyond embarrassing this late in the season. Georgia v. Tenn Tech? Auburn v. Furman? Ole Miss v. N Arizona? It's like scheduling a bye week and getting a W at the same time...
tUBa Ninja
West Buffalo, CA
Total Comments (2204)
Well you nailed that one JP! Good non-call...
norka
Bubba Spot, GA
Total Comments (4107)
Comment
Remember to keep your posts clean. Profanity will get filtered, and offensive comments will be removed.